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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Elisa Oyj markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHtelecom
41.60 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
34.48 €
55.00 €

5 AI-mallia arvioi ELISA:n mediaaniksi 41.24 € (-0.9% suhteessa spotiin 41.60 €, mallien yksimielisyys 0.95). Analyytikkokonsensus 42.24 € (18 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
41.24 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-0.9%
Yksimielisyys
0.955/5 mallia
Raaka 0.93
Hajonta
σ 0.02
Analyytikkokonsensus
42.24 €(18 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia ELISA. Huomioitavaa: Intense competition within the telecommunications sector could lead to pricin... AI-konsensusarvio 41.24 0.9% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.95). Analyytikkokonsensus: 42.24 (AI -2.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokELISAElisa Oyj41.6spot42.2analysts40.040.541.041.542.042.5
Pessimistinen (min)
39.45 €
-5.2%
Perus (mediaani)
41.24 €
-0.9%
Optimistinen (max)
42.33 €
1.7%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:40.80→41.24(+1.1%)
CAGR
+0.3pp(1 ↑)
MARG
+0.2pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsspot-marginally-lower

Mallien erittely

GPT →
Est.
42.30
Ero
+1.7%
Conf
0.60
DCF 42.33 → Kal. 42.30
Avaintekijät
  • Stable subscription revenue
  • Investment in 5G and fiber infrastructure
  • Growth in digital services and ICT solutions
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory pressures on pricing
  • High capital expenditures impacting cash flow
  • Competition in the telecommunications market
Muutos
No significant changes in the core assumptions from the previous model.
Ei edellistä dataa
stabilitytelecom
CLAUDE →
Est.
41.48
Ero
-0.3%
Conf
0.73
DCF 41.15 → Kal. 41.48
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% (2022-2025: EUR 2129M→2257M) anchors the 5-ye…
  • Elisa IndustrIQ (B2B software/ICT: sedApta, camLine, CalcuQuote, Polystar, Te…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 20.6% is already at the high end of the telecom secto…
Suurin riski
  • Near-term revenue contraction: analyst 1Y revenue growth estimate of -1.3% signals pres…
  • Elevated net debt/EBITDA of 1.99x limits financial flexibility; any rise in refinancing…
  • Execution risk in Elisa IndustrIQ international expansion — software/ICT acquisitions (…
Muutos
Spot price is marginally lower at EUR 41.60 vs EUR 41.68 yesterday, representing an immaterial change. No new fundame…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsspot-marginally-lower
GEMINI →
Est.
41.24
Ero
-0.9%
Conf
0.80
DCF 40.81 → Kal. 41.24
Avaintekijät
  • Stable demand for core telecommunications services in Finland and other Europ…
  • Strategic diversification into ICT, software (Elisa IndustrIQ), and AI-powere…
  • Strong operational efficiency, as evidenced by the trailing EBIT margin of 20…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition within the telecommunications sector could lead to pricing pressure…
  • Regulatory changes or increased governmental scrutiny could affect Elisa's operational …
  • High capital expenditure requirements for network upgrades and expansion may constrain …
Muutos
The 5-year revenue CAGR forecast has been slightly adjusted upwards, reflecting a more nuanced view of diversificatio…
CAGR
+0.3pp
MARG
+0.2pp
assumption changerevenue outlookmargin outlook
GROK →
Est.
40.80
Ero
-1.9%
Conf
0.65
DCF 40.18 → Kal. 40.80
Avaintekijät
  • Stable subscription-driven revenue base in Finland
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 2% provides anchor for modest future growth
  • EBIT margins near 20% supported by scale and cost discipline
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory pressure on mobile and broadband pricing
  • Intense competition in domestic Finnish market
  • High ongoing capex intensity for 5G/fiber rollout
Muutos
No material change in assumptions from prior day.
Ei edellistä dataa
stable
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
40.29
Ero
-3.1%
Conf
0.60
DCF 39.45 → Kal. 40.29
Avaintekijät
  • Stable telecom subscription revenue in Finland provides base growth
  • ICT and software (Elisa IndustrIQ) expansion offers higher-margin growth pote…
  • 5G and fiber network investments support long-term connectivity demand
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in Finnish telecom market could pressure pricing
  • High capex requirements for network upgrades may limit free cash flow
  • Regulatory changes or spectrum license costs could impact profitability
Muutos
No material new information since yesterday; assumptions unchanged.
Ei muutosta
no change

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V2.0%2.0%1.8%
+0.3pp
2.0%2.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite21.0%20.6%21.0%
+0.2pp
20.6%21.0%
WACC6.9%7.0%6.8%6.5%7.0%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)2.0%2.1%+0.1pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite21.0%21.2%+0.2pp
WACC6.9%6.9%-0.0pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 41.60 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali20.6%
EBITDA-marginaali31.8%
ROE27.4%
Nettovelka / EBITDA2.0x
P/E19.5x
EV / EBITDA11.3x
P/B5.0x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Elisa Oyj provides telecommunications, information and communication technology (ICT), and online services in Finland, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Consumer Customers and Corporate Customers. The company offers consumers with telecommunications and communications services, including fixed and mobile subscriptions, supplementary digital services, cable TV subscriptions, and entertainment services, as well as IT and communication solutions. It provides sedApta, supply chain management and operational planning software; camLine, an automation, MES, and data analytics software; CalcuQuote, a integrated software for sourcing, quoting, procurement, and supplier collaboration; and TenForce, a platform to strengthen safety culture and operational oversight across complex industrial environments. It also offers Polystar, an intelligent network analytics and optimization software. The company markets its solutions under Elisa IndustrIQ brand. Further, it provides Gridle, an AI-powered energy flexibility optimization service; and Elisa Kotiakku, that smooths out spikes in electricity spot prices and stores electricity generated by solar panels. In add
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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