384.80 USD
52-Week Range
$147.84
$385.84
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$464.20
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+20.6%
Agreement
0.765/5 models
Raw 0.70
Dispersion
σ 0.11
Analyst consensus
$378.50(56 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on GOOGL. Key driver: Continued strong growth in Google Cloud, driven by AI solutions like Gemini e... AI consensus estimate 464.20 20.6% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.76). Analyst consensus: 378.50 (AI +22.6%).Bear Case (min)
$367.18
-4.6%
Base Case (median)
$464.20
+20.6%
Bull Case (max)
$543.33
41.2%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:463.61→464.20(+0.1%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
WACC-0.2pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changepost-earningsq1-2026-beat
Model Breakdown
GPT
DCF 543.33 → Cal. 493.88
Key Drivers
- Strong growth in the Google Cloud segment fueled by AI.
- Investments in new technologies and products.
- Expansion in advertising and subscription services.
Top Risk
- Regulatory pressures, especially in international markets.
- Competition in cloud services and advertising space.
- Potential economic slowdown affecting ad spending.
Delta
No previous data
valuationtechassumptions
GEMINI
DCF 537.63 → Cal. 489.89
Key Drivers
- Continued strong growth in Google Cloud, driven by AI solutions like Gemini e…
- Dominant market position in digital advertising through Google Services (Sear…
- Significant scale and operating leverage, contributing to robust profitability.
Top Risk
- Intense competition in the cloud computing and AI markets from established and emerging…
- Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions in key markets, particularl…
- Dependence on advertising revenue, which can be susceptible to economic cycles and chan…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
WACC-0.2pp
minor adjustmentrevenue outlook improvedwacc recalibration
CLAUDE
DCF 500.93 → Cal. 464.20
Key Drivers
- Q1 2026 earnings confirmed Google Cloud revenue and CapEx beat estimates, val…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) is accelerating; analyst consens…
- Google Cloud (Vertex AI, Gemini enterprise, cybersecurity, Workspace) is the …
Top Risk
- Regulatory and antitrust risk: DOJ search monopoly ruling and potential structural reme…
- AI disruption to Search: LLM-based alternatives (OpenAI, Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot)…
- Elevated capex intensity (22.7% of revenue) for AI infrastructure creates execution ris…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changepost-earningsq1-2026-beat
GROK
DCF 424.27 → Cal. 410.54
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth (12.5% CAGR) supports a forward-looking CAGR…
- AI solutions like Gemini and Vertex AI platform expected to fuel growth in hi…
- Dominant position in digital advertising and subscription services (YouTube, …
Top Risk
- Intense competition in AI and cloud computing could pressure margins if pricing becomes…
- Regulatory scrutiny over data privacy and antitrust issues may limit operational flexib…
- High capex (22.7% of revenue) could strain cash flows if growth initiatives underperform.
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsupdated headlines
DEEPSEEK
DCF 367.18 → Cal. 370.58
Key Drivers
- Google Services (Search, YouTube, Android) provides stable ad revenue with hi…
- Google Cloud accelerating growth via AI/ML and enterprise partnerships (Gemin…
- Continued investment in AI infrastructure and data centers supports long-term…
Top Risk
- Regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions in US, EU, and other jurisdictions
- Competition from Microsoft (Bing/Copilot), Amazon (AWS), and emerging AI startups
- Heavy capex requirements (22.7% of revenue) pressure free cash flow and margins
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 14.0% | 12.0% | 17.0% +0.5pp | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 34.0% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 36.0% | 34.0% |
| WACC | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% -0.2pp | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 14.0% | 11.9% | -2.1pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 34.0% | 29.7% | -4.3pp |
| WACC | 10.2% | 11.1% | +0.9pp |
Based on spot price $384.80 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin32.0%
EBITDA Margin37.3%
ROE31.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.4x
P/E Trailing35.3x
EV / EBITDA30.6x
P/B11.2x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-01
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