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Meta Platforms Inc.

2026-05-01🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Top disagreement #2
611.91 USD
52-Week Range
$520.26
$796.25

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$795.67
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+30.0%
Agreement
0.695/5 models
Raw 0.61
Dispersion
σ 0.15
Analyst consensus
$855.11(60 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on META. Key driver: Strong historical revenue growth with a CAGR of 19.9% from 2022-2025, adjuste... AI consensus estimate 795.67 30.0% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.69). Analyst consensus: 855.11 (AI -7.0%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMETAMeta Platfo…611.9spot855.1analysts55467479491410341154
Bear Case (min)
$659.68
7.8%
Base Case (median)
$795.67
+30.0%
Bull Case (max)
$1198.53
95.9%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:795.67→795.67(+0.0%)
no-assumption-changespot-price-declinepost-earnings
Model Breakdown
GPT
Est.
1095.50
Gap
+79.0%
Conf
0.70
DCF 1198.53 → Cal. 1095.50
Key Drivers
  • Expansion in AI and VR products
  • Strong revenue growth trajectory
  • Continued market leadership in social media
Top Risk
  • Regulatory challenges
  • Increasing competition in social media and VR
  • Economic downturn impact on advertising
Delta
Assumptions remain aligned with previous estimates based on current growth trajectory and investments in AI. No signi…
No previous data
updateassumptions consistent
GEMINI
Est.
913.34
Gap
+49.3%
Conf
0.75
DCF 938.30 → Cal. 913.34
Key Drivers
  • Continued strong growth in the Family of Apps segment, driven by user engagem…
  • Significant investment and potential long-term benefits from AI initiatives a…
  • Scalability of Meta's core advertising business model, supporting high profit…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in the social media and digital advertising markets.
  • Regulatory scrutiny and potential changes in data privacy policies impacting advertisin…
  • Uncertainty and high capital expenditure associated with the Reality Labs segment's lon…
Delta
No significant changes to core valuation assumptions compared to yesterday's model.
No change
no significant change
CLAUDE
Est.
795.67
Gap
+30.0%
Conf
0.77
DCF 770.20 → Cal. 795.67
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; modera…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 41.4% is already best-in-class for a scaled internet …
  • Analyst consensus of 60 analysts with mean target $855.11 (+39.7% upside vs s…
Top Risk
  • Elevated AI capex overhang: 2026 capex guidance of $125B–$145B (vs $69.7B in 2025) repr…
  • Regulatory risk: antitrust scrutiny in the US and EU (potential forced divestiture of I…
  • Advertising cyclicality: macro slowdown, tariff-driven SMB spending cuts, or broader ri…
Delta
Core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday (2026-04-30). The spot price has declined from $669.12 to $61…
No change
no-assumption-changespot-price-declinepost-earnings
GROK
Est.
795.67
Gap
+30.0%
Conf
0.78
DCF 770.20 → Cal. 795.67
Key Drivers
  • Strong historical revenue growth with a CAGR of 19.9% from 2022-2025, adjuste…
  • High trailing EBIT margin of 41.4%, expected to expand slightly to 43% with o…
  • Continued investments in Reality Labs and AI technologies anticipated to fuel…
Top Risk
  • High capex (34.7% of revenue) could impact margins if Reality Labs initiatives fail to …
  • Regulatory challenges in multiple regions may affect core advertising revenue streams.
  • Intense competition in social media and VR/AR markets could lead to loss of market share.
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, with no significant changes in key inputs based on updated data…
No change
stable assumptionsno major update
DEEPSEEK
Est.
718.31
Gap
+17.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 659.68 → Cal. 718.31
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) from Family of Apps advertising …
  • Forward revenue growth estimate of 23.8% for next year, driven by AI-enhanced…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 41.4% shows strong operating leverage; steady-state m…
Top Risk
  • Heavy capex (34.7% of revenue) and depreciation (9.3% of revenue) pressure near-term fr…
  • Regulatory risks in EU and US regarding data privacy and antitrust could impact adverti…
  • Reality Labs segment may not achieve profitability, weighing on overall margins
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR and EBIT margin remain consistent with histori…
No change
no change

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y15.0%14.0%20.0%19.0%15.0%
EBIT Margin Target43.0%40.0%40.0%45.0%43.0%
WACC10.5%10.5%11.0%9.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)15.0%12.0%-3.0pp
EBIT Margin Target43.0%34.8%-8.2pp
WACC10.5%11.8%+1.3pp
Based on spot price $611.91 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin41.4%
EBITDA Margin50.7%
ROE27.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.0x
P/E Trailing25.7x
EV / EBITDA15.3x
P/B7.1x
Analyst Range– – –
Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) headsets, and AI glasses in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). The FoA segment offers Facebook, which enables people to build community through feed, reels, stories, groups, marketplace, and other; Instagram that brings people closer through Instagram feed, stories, reels, live, and messaging; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; Meta AI, an assistant that's available across apps, as a stand-alone app, on AI glasses, and on the web; Threads, an application for text-based updates and public conversations; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact. The RL segment provides virtual and augmented reality products, including consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected
Source: Yahoo Finance

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