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AI model estimates for
Meta Platforms Inc. vs spot price

2026-06-17🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
600.21 USD
52-Week Range
$520.26
$796.25

As of 2026-06-17, 5 AI models estimate META median target $854.11 (+42.3% vs spot $600.21, model agreement 0.70). Analyst consensus $827.32 (59 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$854.11
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+42.3%
Agreement
0.705/5 models
Raw 0.62
Dispersion
σ 0.14
Analyst consensus
$827.32(59 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on META. Key driver: Continued strong growth and monetization of the Family of Apps (Facebook, Ins... AI consensus estimate 854.11 42.3% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.70). Analyst consensus: 827.32 (AI +3.2%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMETAMeta Platfo…600.2spot827.3analysts5566477398319221014
Bear Case (min)
$606.40
1.0%
Base Case (median)
$854.11
+42.3%
Bull Case (max)
$1030.33
71.7%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:845.41→854.11(+1.0%)
no-change×2stable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold

Model Breakdown

GEMINI →
Est.
969.43
Gap
+61.5%
Conf
0.80
DCF 1030.33 → Cal. 969.43
Key Drivers
  • Continued strong growth and monetization of the Family of Apps (Facebook, Ins…
  • Significant investments in AI and its integration across all products, enhanc…
  • Potential long-term returns from Reality Labs' virtual and augmented reality …
Top Risk
  • Intense competition from other social media platforms and emerging technologies.
  • High capital expenditures and uncertain returns on investment in Reality Labs and AI in…
  • Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions impacting business operations and g…
Delta
No significant changes in core valuation assumptions since yesterday.
No previous data
no change
GPT →
Est.
876.57
Gap
+46.0%
Conf
0.70
DCF 897.68 → Cal. 876.57
Key Drivers
  • Strong revenue growth driven by new product offerings
  • Expanding market presence in virtual and augmented reality
  • Continued investment in AI technology
Top Risk
  • Regulatory challenges in key markets
  • High competition in digital advertising
  • Potential shifts in user engagement trends
Delta
No significant changes in key assumptions since yesterday.
No previous data
summaryno-change
CLAUDE →
Est.
854.11
Gap
+42.3%
Conf
0.74
DCF 865.59 → Cal. 854.11
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) anchors strong near-term growth…
  • Threads reaching 500 million users (per Yahoo Finance headline, June 2026) si…
  • Family of Apps segment generates dominant, high-margin advertising revenue (~…
Top Risk
  • Regulatory and antitrust risk: ongoing FTC litigation, EU Digital Markets Act complianc…
  • Heavy AI infrastructure capex (~$70B annually) creates execution risk if AI monetizatio…
  • Advertising market cyclicality: a macro downturn or shift in digital ad spending could …
Delta
No material changes to core assumptions versus the prior day model. All four valuation inputs (WACC 10.5%, revenue CA…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
GROK →
Est.
680.30
Gap
+13.3%
Conf
0.65
DCF 617.30 → Cal. 680.30
Key Drivers
  • FoA segment delivers 38.7% trailing EBIT margin with strong ad monetization
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) provides base for forward growth
  • Low net debt/EBITDA of 0.05 supports capital-light scaling
Top Risk
  • Continued high capex in AI and Reality Labs may pressure margins longer than expected
  • Regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and AI deployment
  • Ad revenue cyclicality tied to macro conditions
Delta
No material change in assumptions; fundamentals and market anchors remain consistent with prior day.
No previous data
no change
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
672.68
Gap
+12.1%
Conf
0.65
DCF 606.40 → Cal. 672.68
Key Drivers
  • Historical 3-year revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) provides a strong base fo…
  • Family of Apps (FoA) segment continues to generate high-margin advertising re…
  • Reality Labs (RL) segment represents a long-term growth option in VR/AR, but …
Top Risk
  • Regulatory headwinds in the US and EU (e.g., antitrust, data privacy) could constrain a…
  • Reality Labs segment may fail to achieve commercial viability, leading to sustained mar…
  • Intensifying competition from TikTok, Google, and emerging AI platforms could erode use…
Delta
No material change in assumptions from prior day; all four key inputs remain identical.
No change
no change

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y16.0%12.0%22.0%19.7%15.0%
EBIT Margin Target42.0%40.0%39.0%40.0%39.0%
WACC10.5%10.5%11.5%11.5%11.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)16.0%14.2%-1.8pp
EBIT Margin Target40.0%35.6%-4.4pp
WACC11.5%12.3%+0.8pp
Based on spot price $600.21 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin38.7%
EBITDA Margin50.8%
ROE32.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing21.6x
EV / EBITDA14.0x
P/B6.3x
Analyst Range664.46 – 1015.00
Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) headsets, and AI glasses in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). The FoA segment offers Facebook, which enables people to build community through feed, reels, stories, groups, marketplace, and other; Instagram that brings people closer through Instagram feed, stories, reels, live, and messaging; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; Meta AI, an assistant that's available across apps, as a stand-alone app, on AI glasses, and on the web; Threads, an application for text-based updates and public conversations; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact. The RL segment provides virtual and augmented reality products, including consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected
Source: Yahoo Finance

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