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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Meta Platforms Inc. markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #2
607.38 USD
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$520.26
$796.25

5 AI-mallia arvioi META:n mediaaniksi 831.74 USD (+36.9% suhteessa spotiin 607.38 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 0.71). Analyytikkokonsensus 826.69 USD (58 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$831.74
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
+36.9%
Yksimielisyys
0.715/5 mallia
Raaka 0.63
Hajonta
σ 0.13
Analyytikkokonsensus
$826.69(58 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on positiivisia META. Avaintekijä: Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; moder... AI-konsensusarvio 831.74 36.9% yli nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.71). Analyytikkokonsensus: 826.69 (AI +0.6%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMETAMeta Platfo…607.4spot826.7analysts5616567528479421037
Pessimistinen (min)
$584.29
-3.8%
Perus (mediaani)
$831.74
+36.9%
Optimistinen (max)
$1061.29
74.7%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:769.59→831.74(+8.1%)
CAGR
+5.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG
+2.0pp(1 ↑)
assumption-stableregulatory-headline-risktexas-lawsuit-whatsapp

Mallien erittely

GPT →
Est.
990.91
Ero
+63.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 1061.29 → Kal. 990.91
Avaintekijät
  • Strong demand for digital connectivity and VR
  • Ongoing investments in AI and augmented reality
  • Growth prospects in advertising revenue
Suurin riski
  • Increased regulatory scrutiny and potential fines
  • Competition from other tech platforms
  • Market volatility affecting advertising budgets
Muutos
Assumptions have been updated based on recent performance and growth outlook.
CAGR
+5.0pp
MARG
+2.0pp
assumption updateconfidence raised
GEMINI →
Est.
872.28
Ero
+43.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 891.82 → Kal. 872.28
Avaintekijät
  • Continued strong user engagement and monetization across the Family of Apps (…
  • Significant investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Reality Labs (VR/…
  • Potential for operating leverage as the company scales its core advertising b…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in social media, advertising, and emerging technologies like AI and…
  • Regulatory scrutiny and privacy concerns, as highlighted by recent lawsuits (e.g., Texa…
  • Uncertainty and long payback periods associated with investments in Reality Labs.
Muutos
Yesterday's model data was unavailable, so no comparison of assumptions can be made.
Ei edellistä dataa
no comparison
CLAUDE →
Est.
831.74
Ero
+36.9%
Conf
0.77
DCF 833.90 → Kal. 831.74
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; moder…
  • Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth of 33.1% and EPS growth of 62.4% reflect …
  • AI-driven workforce restructuring and operational efficiency gains reinforce …
Suurin riski
  • Heavy capex commitment (~32.4% of revenue) for AI data centers and infrastructure creat…
  • Reality Labs segment continues to generate material operating losses, acting as a struc…
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in the US and EU — including Texas lawsuit over Whats…
Muutos
Assumptions are held flat versus yesterday's model. Today's incremental news — the Texas lawsuit against Meta and Wha…
Ei muutosta
assumption-stableregulatory-headline-risktexas-lawsuit-whatsapp
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
769.59
Ero
+26.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 745.12 → Kal. 769.59
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% (2022-2025) provides a strong base, but futu…
  • Massive AI infrastructure investments (capex-to-revenue 32.4%) are expected t…
  • Family of Apps (FoA) segment remains highly profitable with strong operating …
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory headwinds in the US and EU could impact data usage and advertising revenue.
  • Heavy capital expenditure on AI and Reality Labs may not yield expected returns, pressu…
  • Intense competition from other digital advertising platforms (e.g., Google, Amazon, Tik…
Muutos
No material changes from yesterday's assumptions. The model continues to reflect strong historical growth and margin …
Ei muutosta
no changestable outlook
GROK →
Est.
657.01
Ero
+8.2%
Conf
0.65
DCF 584.29 → Kal. 657.01
Avaintekijät
  • Family of Apps ad revenue growth remains robust with AI-driven targeting
  • Reality Labs losses narrowing as hardware scale improves
  • High operating leverage supports margin expansion beyond trailing 38.7%
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex intensity (32.4% of revenue) pressures near-term free cash flow
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across US and EU markets
  • Ad spending cyclicality tied to macro conditions
Muutos
Slight moderation in 5y revenue CAGR to reflect maturing growth profile while maintaining high steady-state margin as…
CAGR
-1.0pp
cagr adjustedmargin stable

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V15.5%14.0%18.0%20.0%
+5.0pp
12.0%
-1.0pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite42.0%42.0%39.0%40.0%
+2.0pp
40.0%
WACC10.5%10.5%10.7%10.7%10.7%
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)15.5%12.5%-3.0pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite40.0%32.6%-7.4pp
WACC10.7%12.0%+1.3pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $607.38 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali38.7%
EBITDA-marginaali50.8%
ROE32.5%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.1x
P/E21.8x
EV / EBITDA14.2x
P/B6.3x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality (VR) headsets, and AI glasses in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Family of Apps (FoA) and Reality Labs (RL). The FoA segment offers Facebook, which enables people to build community through feed, reels, stories, groups, marketplace, and other; Instagram that brings people closer through Instagram feed, stories, reels, live, and messaging; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; Meta AI, an assistant that's available across apps, as a stand-alone app, on AI glasses, and on the web; Threads, an application for text-based updates and public conversations; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact. The RL segment provides virtual and augmented reality products, including consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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