407.78 USD
52-Week Range
$356.28
$555.45
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$472.96
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+16.0%
Agreement
0.795/5 models
Raw 0.71
Dispersion
σ 0.09
Analyst consensus
$570.72(54 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on MSFT. Key driver: Sustained demand for cloud services (Azure) and enterprise software (Microsof... AI consensus estimate 472.96 16.0% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.79). Analyst consensus: 570.72 (AI -17.1%).Bear Case (min)
$370.97
-9.0%
Base Case (median)
$472.96
+16.0%
Bull Case (max)
$546.70
34.1%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:456.68→472.96(+3.6%)
CAGR+1.0pp(2 ↑)
MARG-1.0pp(2 ↓)
no-assumption-changestable-modelai-revenue-acceleration
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE
DCF 546.70 → Cal. 553.91
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.4% (2022–2025) is accelerating: analyst consens…
- Azure Intelligent Cloud segment is the primary growth engine; AI workloads (i…
- Copilot integration across Microsoft 365 (600M+ commercial seats), GitHub, Dy…
Top Risk
- Elevated capex (~20% of revenue, rising toward ~$200B in 2026) for AI infrastructure ma…
- Intensifying competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and emerging AI-native platforms could…
- Loss of exclusive or preferred OpenAI access under the revised partnership structure co…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changestable-modelai-revenue-acceleration
GPT
DCF 509.13 → Cal. 527.61
Key Drivers
- Strong demand for cloud and AI services
- Recurring revenue from subscription products
- Continued expansion in global markets
Top Risk
- Intense competition in cloud services
- Regulatory scrutiny over data privacy and monopolistic practices
- Potential economic downturn affecting IT spending
Delta
No previous data
technologygrowth
GROK
DCF 431.06 → Cal. 472.96
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth (12.4% CAGR) supports a forward-looking CAGR…
- Azure and Intelligent Cloud segment expected to maintain momentum with increa…
- High trailing EBIT margin (40.4%) with slight upside to 42% due to operating …
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition in cloud services from AWS and Google Cloud could pressure fut…
- High capex (20.3% of revenue) may impact cash flows if growth expectations are not met.
- Regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical tensions could hinder global expansion efforts.
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG-1.0pp
stable assumptionsminor update
GEMINI
DCF 426.12 → Cal. 469.50
Key Drivers
- Sustained demand for cloud services (Azure) and enterprise software (Microsof…
- Significant investments and leadership in Artificial Intelligence (AI) integr…
- Strong operating leverage from a highly scalable software and subscription-ba…
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition in cloud computing and AI markets from major technology rivals…
- High capital expenditures required for AI infrastructure and data centers, potentially …
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny, particularly regarding AI partnerships and market do…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG-1.0pp
GROWTH OUTLOOK UPDATEMARGIN UPDATE
DEEPSEEK
DCF 370.97 → Cal. 430.89
Key Drivers
- Azure and cloud services continue to drive double-digit revenue growth, suppo…
- Strong operating leverage from scale in Intelligent Cloud and Productivity se…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.4% (2022-2025) provides a baseline for future g…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and legal scrutiny of AI partnerships (e.g., Musk-OpenAI lawsuit) could disr…
- Elevated capex at 20.3% of revenue pressures free cash flow and margin in near term
- Macroeconomic slowdown or tech spending cuts could reduce enterprise demand
Delta
No change
no changestable outlook
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 15.0% | 12.0% | 16.0% +0.5pp | 14.0% | 15.0% +1.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 44.0% | 45.0% | 42.0% -1.0pp | 45.0% | 42.0% -1.0pp |
| WACC | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 15.0% | 13.7% | -1.3pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 44.0% | 39.5% | -4.5pp |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.1% | +0.6pp |
Based on spot price $407.78 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin40.4%
EBITDA Margin58.0%
ROE36.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.3x
P/E Trailing24.2x
EV / EBITDA16.7x
P/B7.8x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-01
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