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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Microsoft Corporation markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-07-31🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
451.10 USD
edellinen päätöskurssi — ei reaaliaikainen
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$349.20
$555.45

Tilanne 2026-07-31: 5 AI-mallia arvioi MSFT:n mediaaniksi 495.76 USD (+9.9% suhteessa spotiin 451.10 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 0.75). Analyytikkokonsensus 561.58 USD (53 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$495.76
Mallin puhdas arvio — ei analyytikkosekoitusta
Ero
+9.9%
Yksimielisyys
0.755/5 mallia
Raaka 0.75
Hajonta
σ 11.1%
Analyytikkokonsensus
$561.58(53 analyytikkoa)
Kalibroitu sekoitus (tutkimussarja)
$515.51
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on positiivisia MSFT. Avaintekijä: Strong growth in Azure and cloud services driven by enterprise AI adoption. AI-konsensusarvio 495.76 9.9% yli nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.75). Analyytikkokonsensus: 561.58 (AI -11.7%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMSFTMicrosoft C…451.1spot561.6analysts357403448493538583
Pessimistinen (min)
$379.24
-15.9%
Perus (mediaani)
$495.76
+9.9%
Optimistinen (max)
$536.38
18.9%
Bear/Base/Bull: mallien oma haarukka (12 kk:n arvot)

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:418.97→495.76(+18.3%)
CAGR
+2.0pp(3 ↑)
MARG
+7.0pp(4 ↑)
no-assumption-changeconfidence-nudge-uppost-earnings-validation

Mikä muuttui (7 pv)

2026-07-24 → 2026-07-31: MSFT: 5 mallin AI-konsensusarvio liikkui $418.97 → $495.76 (+18.3 %); mediaani-WACC 10.0 % → 10.0 % (+0.00 pp); terminaalikasvu 2.5 % → 2.5 % (+0.00 pp); mallien hajonta σ 15.0 % → 11.1 %. Kokeellisia malliarvioita — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

Mittari7 pv sitten (2026-07-24)Nyt (2026-07-31)Muutos
AI-konsensusarvio$418.97$495.76+18.3%
Mediaani-WACC10.00%10.00%+0.00 pp
Mediaani terminaalikasvu2.50%2.50%+0.00 pp
Mediaani liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)12.0%14.0%+2.00 pp
Mediaani EBIT-marginaalitavoite42.0%45.0%+3.00 pp
Mallien hajonta σ15.0%11.1%-3.83 pp

Mallien erittely

CLAUDE →
Est.
536.38
Ero
+18.9%
Conf
0.83
DCF 536.38 → Kal. 543.94
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 16.1% (2023-2026: $212B→$332B) is being sustained …
  • Microsoft's stock posted its largest single-day gain in history (~15%) follow…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 48.8% is exceptionally high and reflects the maturity…
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex cycle (~$116B trailing, 36.4% of revenue) required to support Azure AI i…
  • Competitive pressure from Google Cloud (Gemini), AWS (Bedrock/Trainium), and emerging A…
  • Regulatory scrutiny of Microsoft's AI partnerships (OpenAI), enterprise software bundli…
Muutos
Assumptions are held unchanged from yesterday's post-earnings session. The 15%+ single-day stock surge reported in to…
Ei muutosta
no-assumption-changeconfidence-nudge-uppost-earnings-validation
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
505.55
Ero
+12.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 505.55 → Kal. 522.36
Avaintekijät
  • Azure and cloud services growth accelerated by enterprise AI workload migration
  • Microsoft 365 Copilot driving higher ARPU and recurring revenue
  • LinkedIn and Dynamics 365 benefiting from SaaS demand in sales/marketing
Suurin riski
  • Heavy capex (36%+ of revenue) for AI data centers pressures free cash flow
  • Regulatory scrutiny in EU and US on antitrust and data privacy could constrain operations
  • Intense cloud competition from AWS and Google may slow Azure market share gains
Muutos
Adjusted revenue CAGR up from 10% to 12% based on strong Q4 results and AI-driven demand signals. EBIT margin target …
CAGR
+2.0pp
MARG
+10.0pp
adjusted revenue cagr 5yadjusted ebit margin target
GEMINI →
Est.
495.76
Ero
+9.9%
Conf
0.85
DCF 495.76 → Kal. 515.51
Avaintekijät
  • Strong growth in Azure and cloud services driven by enterprise AI adoption.
  • Monetization of Copilot and generative AI features across Microsoft 365.
  • Consistent operating leverage from high-margin software and SaaS products.
Suurin riski
  • Substantial capital expenditures on AI infrastructure could impact near-term free cash …
  • Intense competition in cloud computing and AI from other hyperscalers like AWS and Goog…
  • Potential regulatory and antitrust scrutiny over AI partnerships and market dominance.
Muutos
We maintained our 5-year revenue CAGR at 15.0% and WACC at 10.0%, while slightly adjusting our target EBIT margin to …
MARG
+1.5pp
ai-spendingcloud-growthoperating-leverage
GROK →
Est.
481.05
Ero
+6.6%
Conf
0.75
DCF 481.05 → Kal. 505.21
Avaintekijät
  • Azure and cloud services continue to drive double-digit revenue growth
  • High operating leverage in Productivity segment supports sustained 40%+ EBIT …
  • AI and Copilot monetization provide incremental growth tailwinds over 5-year …
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex intensity (36.4% of revenue) may pressure free cash flow if AI returns d…
  • Regulatory scrutiny on cloud and AI practices could limit pricing power
  • Large installed base increases risk of growth deceleration as scale increases
Muutos
Slight upward revision to revenue CAGR and target EBIT margin reflecting stronger trailing margins and AI momentum; W…
CAGR
+2.0pp
MARG
+5.0pp
margin expansiongrowth outlook
GPT →
Est.
379.24
Ero
-15.9%
Conf
0.72
DCF 379.24 → Kal. 433.94
Avaintekijät
  • Trailing EBIT margin is already very strong at 48.8%, so the steady-state tar…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 16.1% supports above-average growth, but scale and…
  • Near-term analyst revenue growth of 18.3% and earnings growth of 23.4% sugges…
Suurin riski
  • Heavy AI and cloud capex could pressure free cash flow and delay margin expansion.
  • Growth may normalize as the business scales, especially versus the recent 18.3% revenue…
  • Competitive pressure in cloud, productivity, and AI platforms could limit pricing power…
Muutos
Growth is nudged up slightly versus yesterday to reflect the stronger recent operating backdrop and analyst growth an…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+7.0pp
tech large capcapm anchorslightly higher growth

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V16.0%12.0%
+2.0pp
15.0%9.5%
+0.5pp
14.0%
+2.0pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite44.0%50.0%
+10.0pp
43.0%
+1.5pp
50.0%
+7.0pp
45.0%
+5.0pp
WACC10.1%9.5%10.0%10.0%10.0%
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.0%2.5%2.5%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)14.0%15.1%+1.1pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite45.0%48.8%+3.8pp
WACC10.0%9.6%-0.4pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $451.10 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali48.8%
EBITDA-marginaali58.0%
ROE28.3%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.3x
P/E26.8x
EV / EBITDA18.4x
P/B8.1x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli400.00 – 870.00
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner netwo
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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