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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Microsoft Corporation markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
419.09 USD
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$356.28
$555.45

5 AI-mallia arvioi MSFT:n mediaaniksi 470.14 USD (+12.2% suhteessa spotiin 419.09 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 0.84). Analyytikkokonsensus 560.63 USD (54 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$470.14
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
+12.2%
Yksimielisyys
0.845/5 mallia
Raaka 0.77
Hajonta
σ 0.06
Analyytikkokonsensus
$560.63(54 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on positiivisia MSFT. Avaintekijä: Azure cloud platform sustaining high-teens to low-twenties growth driven by A... AI-konsensusarvio 470.14 12.2% yli nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.84). Analyytikkokonsensus: 560.63 (AI -16.1%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMSFTMicrosoft C…419.1spot560.6analysts402437472507543578
Pessimistinen (min)
$409.89
-2.2%
Perus (mediaani)
$470.14
+12.2%
Optimistinen (max)
$534.88
27.6%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:470.14→470.14(+0.0%)
stable×2no-assumption-changegithub-security-incident-noted

Mallien erittely

CLAUDE →
Est.
542.60
Ero
+29.5%
Conf
0.75
DCF 534.88 → Kal. 542.60
Avaintekijät
  • Azure cloud platform sustaining high-teens to low-twenties growth driven by A…
  • Copilot integration across Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, and GitHub creates du…
  • EBIT margin of 40.4% trailing with structural upside from operating leverage …
Suurin riski
  • Heavy AI infrastructure capex (20.3% of revenue) compresses near-term free cash flow an…
  • GitHub security incident (hackers claiming access to internal systems) highlights cyber…
  • Intensifying competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and emerging AI-native platforms could…
Muutos
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. Today's notable development is the GitHub security scare (hackers c…
Ei muutosta
no-assumption-changegithub-security-incident-notedai-infrastructure-thesis-intact
GPT →
Est.
476.25
Ero
+13.6%
Conf
0.75
DCF 440.08 → Kal. 476.25
Avaintekijät
  • Strong growth in cloud services and software subscriptions
  • Continuous investment in AI and productivity tools
  • Expansion opportunities in emerging markets
Suurin riski
  • Competitive pressures in cloud and software markets
  • Regulatory challenges and compliance costs
  • Economic downturn impacting technology spending
Muutos
No significant changes in assumptions were observed.
Ei edellistä dataa
valuationMSFTfinancial model
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
470.14
Ero
+12.2%
Conf
0.70
DCF 431.35 → Kal. 470.14
Avaintekijät
  • Azure and AI services driving high-margin cloud revenue growth
  • Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption expanding commercial subscription revenue
  • Strong recurring revenue base from Office, Dynamics, and LinkedIn
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions in US and EU could constrain growth
  • Intense competition from AWS, Google Cloud, and AI startups
  • High capex requirements for AI data centers may pressure free cash flow
Muutos
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR, EBIT margin target, WACC, and terminal growth…
Ei muutosta
stableno change
GEMINI →
Est.
466.73
Ero
+11.4%
Conf
0.75
DCF 426.49 → Kal. 466.73
Avaintekijät
  • Continued robust growth in Azure cloud services driven by digital transformat…
  • Expansion and monetization of AI-powered products across Microsoft 365 and ot…
  • Sustained strength in enterprise software and services, including Microsoft 3…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in the cloud computing market from major players like AWS and Googl…
  • Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny on market dominance and AI ethics.
  • Cybersecurity threats and data breaches impacting customer trust and operational integr…
Muutos
Yesterday's model was unavailable, so no direct comparison of assumptions can be made.
Ei edellistä dataa
unavailable yesterday
GROK →
Est.
455.11
Ero
+8.6%
Conf
0.72
DCF 409.89 → Kal. 455.11
Avaintekijät
  • Azure and AI-driven revenue acceleration
  • High-margin software subscription mix shift
  • Operating leverage from scale in cloud services
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory and antitrust pressure on AI and cloud
  • Capex intensity in data centers may pressure margins
  • Macro IT spending slowdown
Muutos
Slight upward revision to long-term revenue CAGR and margin target reflecting sustained AI momentum and operating lev…
Ei muutosta
stableai-growth

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V15.5%12.0%15.0%12.0%14.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite43.0%44.0%41.5%45.0%43.0%
WACC9.6%9.5%10.5%9.5%10.5%
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)14.0%12.2%-1.9pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite43.0%36.9%-6.1pp
WACC9.6%10.4%+0.8pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $419.09 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali40.4%
EBITDA-marginaali58.0%
ROE36.5%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.3x
P/E24.9x
EV / EBITDA17.1x
P/B7.5x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Microsoft Corporation develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 commercial, enterprise mobility + security, windows commercial, power BI, exchange, sharepoint, Microsoft teams, security and compliance, and copilot; Microsoft 365 commercial products, such as Windows commercial on-premises and office licensed services; Microsoft 365 consumer products and cloud services, including Microsoft 365 consumer subscriptions, office licensed on-premises, and other consumer services; LinkedIn; dynamics products and cloud services, such as dynamics 365, cloud-based applications, and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment provides Server products and cloud services comprising Azure and other cloud services, GitHub, Nuance Healthcare, virtual desktop offerings, and other cloud services; server products, including SQL and windows server, visual studio and system center related client access licenses, and other on-premises offerings; enterprise and partner services, such as enterprise support and nuance professional services, industry solutions, Microsoft partner netwo
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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