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MSFTMicrosoft Corporation

📅 2026-04-03🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
373.46 USD
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$344.79
$555.45

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$467.25
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
+25.1%
Yksimielisyys
0.805/5 mallia
Hajonta
σ 0.08
Analyytikkokonsensus
$587.31(54 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on positiivisia MSFT. Avaintekijä: Strong growth expected in cloud services (Azure) and AI-driven solutions, sup... AI-konsensusarvio 467.25 25.1% yli nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.80). Analyytikkokonsensus: 587.31 (AI -20.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMSFTMicrosoft C…373.5spot587.3analysts348401454507560613
Pessimistinen (min)
$383.78
2.8%
Perus (mediaani)
$467.25
+25.1%
Optimistinen (max)
$520.51
39.4%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:488.87→467.25(-4.4%)
CAGR
-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changestable-modelai-monetization-thesis-intact
Mallien erittely
CLAUDE
Est.
540.55
Ero
+44.7%
Conf
0.75
DCF 520.51 → Kal. 540.55
Avaintekijät
  • Azure cloud platform remains the primary growth engine; analyst consensus pro…
  • Copilot AI monetization across Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, and GitHub is acc…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 42.1% is best-in-class for large-cap tech; operating …
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex-to-revenue ratio of 21.1% reflects massive AI infrastructure investment;…
  • The 1-year earnings growth estimate of ~59.8% is unusually high and may embed optimisti…
  • Competition from AWS and Google Cloud in the hyperscaler market remains intense; Azure …
Muutos
Assumptions are held flat from the prior day model (2026-04-02). New primary data from allowed sources — including th…
Ei muutosta
no-assumption-changestable-modelai-monetization-thesis-intact
GPT
Est.
528.74
Ero
+41.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 503.64 → Kal. 528.74
Avaintekijät
  • Strong product portfolio in cloud computing and productivity software
  • Continued demand for subscription-based services
  • Investment in AI capabilities driving growth potential
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in cloud and software markets
  • Economic downturn affecting IT spending
  • Regulatory challenges in global markets
Muutos
Assumptions have been maintained based on the positive growth outlook and investment in technology advancements.
Ei edellistä dataa
assumption stable
GEMINI
Est.
467.25
Ero
+25.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 415.79 → Kal. 467.25
Avaintekijät
  • Continued strong growth in Microsoft Azure cloud services, driven by enterpri…
  • Successful monetization and widespread adoption of AI capabilities, particula…
  • Robust and recurring demand for Microsoft 365 and other enterprise software s…
Suurin riski
  • Intensifying competition in cloud computing and artificial intelligence markets from es…
  • Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny on market dominance, data privacy, and AI e…
  • Sensitivity to global economic downturns impacting enterprise IT spending and cloud ado…
Muutos
A minor downward adjustment to the 5-year revenue CAGR reflects a slightly more conservative long-term growth outlook…
CAGR
-1.0pp
minor adjustment
GROK
Est.
454.77
Ero
+21.8%
Conf
0.85
DCF 397.97 → Kal. 454.77
Avaintekijät
  • Strong growth expected in cloud services (Azure) and AI-driven solutions, sup…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 42.1% justifies a target of 43% due to operating leve…
  • Expansion in AI offerings (e.g., Copilot) and strategic investments in market…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in cloud computing (AWS, Google Cloud) could pressure pricing and m…
  • High capex (21.1% of revenue) for data centers and AI infrastructure may impact cash fl…
  • Regulatory scrutiny, such as the UK antitrust probe, could disrupt cloud operations or …
Muutos
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, reflecting stability in financial outlook and reinforced by rec…
Ei muutosta
stable assumptionsnews update
DEEPSEEK
Est.
444.84
Ero
+19.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 383.78 → Kal. 444.84
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.4% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline for fut…
  • AI leadership through Azure, Copilot, and GitHub expected to drive growth abo…
  • Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of 16.7%, supporting posi…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in cloud (AWS, Google Cloud) and AI (NVIDIA, others) could pressure…
  • High capital expenditure intensity (21.1% of revenue) required to maintain AI and cloud…
  • Regulatory scrutiny, particularly UK antitrust probe on cloud power, could impact busin…
Muutos
No material changes to valuation assumptions. Maintained all parameters unchanged as company fundamentals and market …
Ei muutosta
unchangedstable outlook

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V15.0%13.5%14.0%
-1.0pp
14.0%14.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite44.0%45.0%41.0%46.0%43.0%
WACC9.5%10.8%10.0%9.5%10.5%
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali42.1%
EBITDA-marginaali57.4%
ROE34.7%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.2x
P/E23.3x
EV / EBITDA16.0x
P/B7.1x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –

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