29.37 EUR
52-Week Range
8.70 €
30.75 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
19.40 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-33.9%
Agreement
0.644/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.53
Dispersion
σ 0.19
Analyst consensus
26.95 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NESTE. Key concern: Volatility in crude oil and renewable feedstock prices impacting profitability. AI consensus estimate 19.40 33.9% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.64). Analyst consensus: 26.95 (AI -28.0%).Bear Case (min)
16.17 €
-44.9%
Base Case (median)
19.40 €
-33.9%
Bull Case (max)
29.66 €
1.0%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:19.71→19.40(-1.6%)
CAGR+1.0pp(2 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no changeassumptions adjustedmetric change
Model Breakdown
GPT
DCF 29.66 → Cal. 28.84
Key Drivers
- Transition to renewable energy
- Expansion of sustainable aviation fuel market
- Investment in technology and infrastructure
Top Risk
- Volatility in oil prices
- Regulatory changes in energy policies
- Competition in renewable fuel markets
Delta
No previous data
stableenergy
DEEPSEEKADJ
DCF 16.17 → Cal. 19.40
Key Drivers
- Transition to renewable diesel and SAF provides volume growth opportunity, of…
- Historical revenue decline (-9.6% CAGR) largely driven by post-2022 commodity…
- Trailing EBIT margin (2.1%) is depressed due to down-cycle; mid-cycle margin …
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility (crude oil, renewable credits) could compress margins further
- Regulatory changes in EU/US renewable fuel mandates may impact SAF and renewable diesel…
- High net debt to EBITDA (2.01x) increases financial risk in a downturn
Delta
No change
no change
GEMINIADJ
DCF 16.17 → Cal. 19.40
Key Drivers
- Growth in renewable products (sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel) dr…
- Strategic investments in production capacity for sustainable fuels.
- Increasing global demand for lower-emission fuels due to environmental regula…
Top Risk
- Volatility in crude oil and renewable feedstock prices impacting profitability.
- Intense competition in the renewable fuels market from new entrants and established pla…
- Regulatory changes or delays in policy support for sustainable fuels.
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG-0.5pp
WACC+0.5pp
assumptions adjustedmetric change
GROKADJ
DCF 16.17 → Cal. 19.40
Key Drivers
- Strong strategic focus on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel as c…
- Expected revenue stabilization and growth driven by increasing demand for ren…
- Margin expansion anticipated from a higher mix of value-added renewable produ…
Top Risk
- Exposure to fluctuating energy commodity prices could impact revenue and profitability.
- Regulatory changes in renewable fuel policies may alter demand dynamics.
- Elevated net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.01) presents financial risk if growth underperforms.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
minor updaterevenue adjustment
CLAUDEINVALID
Delta
No previous data
Valuation Assumptions
| DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 3.5% +1.0pp | 4.0% | 4.0% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 8.0% | 7.5% -0.5pp | 12.0% | 7.5% +0.5pp |
| WACC | 9.3% | 9.0% +0.5pp | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.8% | 10.4% | +6.6pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 7.8% | 12.8% | +5.0pp |
| WACC | 9.1% | 6.5% | -2.6pp |
Based on spot price 29.37 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin2.1%
EBITDA Margin9.3%
ROE9.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.0x
P/E Trailing31.5x
EV / EBITDA14.7x
P/B3.0x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-01
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