31.11 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
13.51 €
34.06 €
As of 2026-07-31, 5 AI models estimate NESTE median target 32.46 € (+4.3% vs spot 31.11 €, model agreement 0.70). Analyst consensus 32.07 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
32.46 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+4.3%
Agreement
0.705/5 models
Raw 0.70
Dispersion
σ 14.0%
Analyst consensus
32.07 €(19 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
32.34 €
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on NESTE. Key driver: Capacity expansion in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) AI consensus estimate 32.46 4.3% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.70). Analyst consensus: 32.07 (AI +1.2%).Bear Case (min)
23.10 €
-25.7%
Base Case (median)
32.46 €
+4.3%
Bull Case (max)
36.37 €
16.9%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:32.46→32.46(+0.0%)
CAGR-1.0pp(1 ↓)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableq2-record-ebitda-confirms-recovery
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-31, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NESTE moved from 25.71 € to 32.46 € (+26.2%); median WACC 8.6% → 8.6% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 4.7% → 14.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-24) | Now (2026-07-31) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 25.71 € | 32.46 € | +26.2% |
| Median WACC | 8.60% | 8.60% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 4.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 8.0% | 9.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 4.7% | 14.0% | +9.36 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 36.37 → Cal. 35.08
Key Drivers
- Renewable Products and SAF volume growth offsetting oil products cyclicality
- Normalized mid-cycle EBIT margin recovery from 1.9% trailing
- Low beta 0.57 supports below-sector WACC
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in Oil Products segment
- Regulatory and feedstock cost risks in renewables
- Low current EBIT margin indicates near-term cyclical pressure
Delta
WACC+0.5pp
stable outlook
Key Drivers
- Q2 2026 earnings call reported record EBITDA and strategic growth plans, conf…
- Analyst consensus 1-year revenue growth estimate of +32.7% reflects a meaning…
- Renewable Products segment (renewable diesel, SAF) provides durable volume gr…
Top Risk
- Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, tallow, palm oil derivatives) can compress…
- Regulatory risk: changes to blending mandates, RED III implementation uncertainty, or U…
- Commodity price exposure in the Oil Products segment creates earnings volatility and ca…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableq2-record-ebitda-confirms-recovery
Key Drivers
- Q2 2026 record EBITDA driven by strong renewable products performance
- Positive 2026 guidance and earnings beat restoring investor confidence
- Strategic expansion in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility (crude oil, feedstock) can severely impact margins
- Regulatory changes in renewable fuel mandates (e.g., EU, US) pose uncertainty
- High capital expenditure requirements for new renewable capacity
Delta
No previous data
no change
Key Drivers
- Capacity expansion in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
- Recovery of renewable product margins toward mid-cycle levels
- Increasing regulatory mandates for renewable fuel blending globally
Top Risk
- Feedstock cost volatility, particularly for waste and residue fats
- Intensifying competition in the renewable fuels market from traditional oil refiners
- Policy and regulatory shifts regarding biofuels incentives and mandates
Delta
No change
stable-outlookrenewables-expansion
DCF 23.10 → Cal. 25.79
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is 1.9%, which is depressed for an energy name and leave…
- Historical revenue declined from EUR 25.7B in 2022 to EUR 19.0B in 2025, but …
- Neste's renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel exposure supports mode…
Top Risk
- Renewable fuel margins can remain volatile due to feedstock spreads, policy changes, an…
- Revenue growth depends on execution in renewable products and SAF demand, which can be …
- A weak trailing EBIT margin may persist if product spreads stay compressed or if ramp-u…
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
slightly-downward-revisioncyclical-energytransition-growth
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% -1.0pp | 4.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% |
| WACC | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% +0.5pp |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 7.2% | +3.2pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 11.5% | +2.5pp |
| WACC | 8.6% | 7.3% | -1.3pp |
Based on spot price 31.11 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin1.9%
EBITDA Margin13.2%
ROE20.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing15.7x
EV / EBITDA10.1x
P/B2.8x
Analyst Range18.40 – 38.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-31
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