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AI model estimates for Neste Oyj vs spot price
2026-06-17🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Top disagreement #1
26.82 EUR
52-Week Range
10.77 €
31.01 €
As of 2026-06-17, 5 AI models estimate NESTE median target 23.20 € (-13.5% vs spot 26.82 €, model agreement 0.64). Analyst consensus 29.37 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
23.20 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-13.5%
Agreement
0.645/5 models
Raw 0.54
Dispersion
σ 0.19
Analyst consensus
29.37 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NESTE. Key concern: Volatility in commodity prices for both traditional fossil feedstocks and ren... AI consensus estimate 23.20 13.5% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.64). Analyst consensus: 29.37 (AI -21.0%).Bear Case (min)
17.90 €
-33.3%
Base Case (median)
23.20 €
-13.5%
Bull Case (max)
36.21 €
35.0%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:23.20→23.20(+0.0%)
WACC-0.5pp(2 ↓)
stable-waccstable-cagrstable-margin
Model Breakdown
DCF 36.21 → Cal. 34.16
Key Drivers
- Investment in renewable products and technologies
- Market expansion for sustainable aviation fuel
- Strong focus on sustainability initiatives
Top Risk
- Volatility in commodity prices
- Regulatory changes affecting oil industry
- Competition from emerging renewable energy companies
Delta
No previous data
stabilityenergy
DCF 21.05 → Cal. 23.55
Key Drivers
- Renewable Products and SAF volume growth offsetting Oil Products cyclicality
- Historical revenue decline driven by post-2022 price normalization, not struc…
- EBIT margin recovery expected toward mid-cycle levels from current 2.1% trough
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in Oil Products segment
- Regulatory and feedstock cost risks in renewable fuels
- Low current EBIT margin indicates limited near-term pricing power
Delta
WACC-0.5pp
wacc down
DCF 20.56 → Cal. 23.20
Key Drivers
- Renewable Products segment (HVO renewable diesel, SAF) is the structural grow…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 2.1% is severely cycle-depressed; mid-cycle normalize…
- Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth of ~2.9% signals stabilization after the …
Top Risk
- Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils) can compress …
- Regulatory risk: changes to EU RED III blending mandates, US RFS/blenders tax credit po…
- Overcapacity risk in the HVO/renewable diesel market as new entrants (ENI, TotalEnergie…
Delta
No change
stable-waccstable-cagrstable-margin
DCF 19.72 → Cal. 22.62
Key Drivers
- Continued strategic shift towards renewable products, particularly sustainabl…
- Global demand growth for sustainable energy solutions driven by environmental…
- Investments in new production capacity and advanced technologies to expand re…
Top Risk
- Volatility in commodity prices for both traditional fossil feedstocks and renewable raw…
- Execution risks associated with large capital expenditure projects and the adoption of …
- Changes in regulatory frameworks and policy support for renewable fuels, which could im…
Delta
WACC-0.5pp
minor change
DCF 17.90 → Cal. 21.34
Key Drivers
- Renewable diesel and SAF demand growth driven by EU and US mandates
- Oil Products segment margin normalization after post-2022 decline
- Capex of 4.8% of revenue supports renewable capacity expansion
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility and refining margin swings
- Regulatory changes in renewable fuel mandates (EU, US)
- High net debt to EBITDA of 1.95 increases financial leverage
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% |
| WACC | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% -0.5pp | 8.6% | 8.5% -0.5pp |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.5% | 6.7% | +3.2pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 8.5% | 10.8% | +2.3pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 7.2% | -1.3pp |
Based on spot price 26.82 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin2.1%
EBITDA Margin9.5%
ROE9.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.9x
P/E Trailing28.7x
EV / EBITDA13.2x
P/B2.7x
Analyst Range12.10 – 36.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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