10.61 EUR
52-Week Range
3.42 €
10.61 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
7.53 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-29.0%
Agreement
0.785/5 models
Raw 0.71
Dispersion
σ 0.09
Analyst consensus
8.50 €(22 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on NOKIA. Key concern: Intense competition within the global mobile, fixed, and cloud network soluti... AI consensus estimate 7.53 29.0% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.78). Analyst consensus: 8.50 (AI -11.4%).Bear Case (min)
6.17 €
-41.8%
Base Case (median)
7.53 €
-29.0%
Bull Case (max)
8.63 €
-18.6%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:7.20→7.53(+4.6%)
CAGR+0.5pp(2 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(2 ↑)
no-changeassumption-stablespot-price-at-52w-high
Model Breakdown
GPT
DCF 8.63 → Cal. 8.59
Key Drivers
- AI and cloud implementations driving growth
- Investment in new technologies
- Market recovery in telecommunications
Top Risk
- Intense competition in the technology sector
- High capital expenditures impacting margins
- Economic downturn affecting demand
Delta
No previous data
GROK
DCF 8.15 → Cal. 8.26
Key Drivers
- Anticipated recovery in revenue growth driven by 5G, AI, and cloud network so…
- Strategic partnerships and innovation in AI and 6G technologies expected to b…
- Focus on optical and IP network solutions aligning with increasing data cente…
Top Risk
- Historical revenue decline (-5.8% CAGR) could persist if market adoption of new technol…
- Intense competition in the technology sector may compress margins over time.
- Geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and market access.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
minor updatenews driven
GEMINI
DCF 7.11 → Cal. 7.53
Key Drivers
- Strategic shift towards higher-growth areas like AI and 6G, evidenced by new …
- Potential for EBIT margin expansion from current low levels (3.9% trailing) t…
- Strong net cash position (net_debt_to_ebitda of -0.99) provides financial fle…
Top Risk
- Intense competition within the global mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions market…
- Execution risk associated with strategic shifts and the successful adoption of new tech…
- Sensitivity to global economic cycles and capital expenditure trends of telecommunicati…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
assumptions adjustedpositive outlook reflected
CLAUDE
DCF 6.21 → Cal. 6.90
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022–2025) reflects the 5G capex cycle down…
- AI and data-centre infrastructure buildout is a structural tailwind for Nokia…
- Cost restructuring programme (EUR 1.2bn savings target by 2026) is progressin…
Top Risk
- Prolonged softness in mobile operator capex — particularly in Europe and India — could …
- Intense competition from Ericsson and Huawei in radio access networks compresses pricin…
- Revenue concentration risk: hyperscaler AI spending on optical/IP networking is lumpy a…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumption-stablespot-price-at-52w-high
DEEPSEEK
DCF 6.17 → Cal. 6.87
Key Drivers
- AI and data center demand driving optical and IP network growth
- Revenue stabilization after historical decline, with +3.5% YoY in 2025
- Low trailing EBIT margin (3.9%) offers potential for expansion through cost p…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from Huawei, Ericsson, and Samsung in telecom equipment
- Cyclical carrier spending and mature telecom market limit growth
- Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022-2025) indicates structural headwinds
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% +0.5pp | 5.0% | 6.0% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% +0.5pp | 12.0% | 10.0% +0.5pp |
| WACC | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 11.5% | +7.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 20.0% | +10.0pp |
| WACC | 9.0% | 6.3% | -2.7pp |
Based on spot price 10.61 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin3.9%
EBITDA Margin12.7%
ROE3.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-1.0x
P/E Trailing76.5x
EV / EBITDA22.3x
P/B2.8x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-01
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