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AI model estimates for Nokia Oyj vs spot price
2026-07-31🇫🇮 OMXHtechnology⚠ Top disagreement #1
7.93 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
3.46 €
14.99 €
As of 2026-07-31, 5 AI models estimate NOKIA median target 9.20 € (+15.9% vs spot 7.93 €, model agreement 0.54). Analyst consensus 10.32 € (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
9.20 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+15.9%
Agreement
0.545/5 models
Raw 0.54
Dispersion
σ 28.9%
Analyst consensus
10.32 €(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
9.53 €
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on NOKIA. Key driver: AI-driven 5G expansion and AI networking infrastructure demand AI consensus estimate 9.20 15.9% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.54). Analyst consensus: 10.32 (AI -10.9%).Bear Case (min)
4.63 €
-41.6%
Base Case (median)
9.20 €
+15.9%
Bull Case (max)
12.12 €
52.8%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:9.20→9.20(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-24 and 2026-07-31, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NOKIA moved from 9.15 € to 9.20 € (+0.5%); median WACC 7.5% → 6.6% (-0.90 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 28.0% → 28.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-24) | Now (2026-07-31) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 9.15 € | 9.20 € | +0.5% |
| Median WACC | 7.50% | 6.60% | -0.90 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 10.5% | 10.0% | -0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 28.0% | 28.9% | +0.90 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 12.12 → Cal. 11.58
Key Drivers
- AI-RAN and 5G infrastructure expansion driving future revenue
- Restructuring expected to support margin recovery from 3.8% trailing EBIT
- Cash-rich balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA -0.68) supports stability
Top Risk
- Persistent low EBIT margins and high forward P/E of 20.3x
- Telecom cyclicality and competition in mobile networks
- Earnings growth estimate -97.9% for next year signals near-term pressure
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 9.89 → Cal. 10.02
Key Drivers
- AI-driven 5G expansion and AI networking infrastructure demand
- Operational leverage and margin expansion from restructuring programs
- Growth in high-margin Cloud and Network Services and intellectual property li…
Top Risk
- Intense market competition in the mobile networks and RAN space
- Slower-than-expected adoption of AI-RAN and next-generation networking technologies
- Restructuring execution risks and potential near-term margin pressure
Delta
No change
stable outlookre-evaluation
DCF 9.20 → Cal. 9.53
Key Drivers
- AI and 5G network upgrades driving demand for Nokia's infrastructure solutions
- Restructuring program aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs
- Net cash position provides financial flexibility and lowers risk
Top Risk
- Telecom capex cycles may delay network spending and impact revenue
- Intense competition from Huawei, Ericsson, and Samsung limits pricing power
- Restructuring execution risks and potential disruption to operations
Delta
No previous data
stableno delta
DCF 7.48 → Cal. 8.33
Key Drivers
- Revenue decline trend reversing: 2025 showed +3.5% growth vs 2024 trough (~EU…
- AI-RAN and AI networking infrastructure: Nokia's Q2 2026 AI-RAN launch positi…
- Nokia Technologies patent licensing segment provides high-margin, recurring r…
Top Risk
- Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022-2025) reflects structural telecom operator capex…
- Trailing EBIT margin of only 3.8% leaves very thin buffer; restructuring charges and AI…
- Intense competition from Ericsson, Huawei, and Samsung in RAN market; Huawei's potentia…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DCF 4.63 → Cal. 6.34
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue declined over 2022-2025, so the forward growth assumption …
- Trailing EBIT margin is only 3.8%, but a small improvement to 5.0% is plausib…
- Beta of 0.794 with Finland risk-free and ERP context supports a CAPM-based WA…
Top Risk
- Telecom infrastructure demand can remain uneven and project timing can be lumpy.
- Competitive pricing pressure may limit EBIT margin expansion.
- Execution risk remains around AI networking and 5G-related product transitions.
Delta
No change
unchangedconservative baselinecapm wacc
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 12.0% |
| WACC | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 1.2% | -2.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 7.3% | -2.7pp |
| WACC | 6.6% | 7.6% | +1.0pp |
Based on spot price 7.93 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin3.8%
EBITDA Margin12.8%
ROE3.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.7x
P/E Trailing63.1x
EV / EBITDA16.3x
P/B2.1x
Analyst Range4.65 – 18.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-31
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