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Nokia Oyj

2026-05-01🇫🇮 OMXHtechnology
10.61 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
3.42 €
10.61 €

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
7.53 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-29.0%
Yksimielisyys
0.785/5 mallia
Raaka 0.71
Hajonta
σ 0.09
Analyytikkokonsensus
8.50 €(22 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia NOKIA. Huomioitavaa: Intense competition within the global mobile, fixed, and cloud network soluti... AI-konsensusarvio 7.53 29.0% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.78). Analyytikkokonsensus: 8.50 (AI -11.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNOKIANokia Oyj10.6spot8.5analysts6.427.358.279.2010.111.1
Pessimistinen (min)
6.17 €
-41.8%
Perus (mediaani)
7.53 €
-29.0%
Optimistinen (max)
8.63 €
-18.6%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:7.20→7.53(+4.6%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(2 ↑)
MARG
+0.5pp(2 ↑)
no-changeassumption-stablespot-price-at-52w-high
Mallien erittely
GPT
Est.
8.59
Ero
-19.0%
Conf
0.60
DCF 8.63 → Kal. 8.59
Avaintekijät
  • AI and cloud implementations driving growth
  • Investment in new technologies
  • Market recovery in telecommunications
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in the technology sector
  • High capital expenditures impacting margins
  • Economic downturn affecting demand
Muutos
No significant changes in assumptions compared to the previous model.
Ei edellistä dataa
GROK
Est.
8.26
Ero
-22.1%
Conf
0.78
DCF 8.15 → Kal. 8.26
Avaintekijät
  • Anticipated recovery in revenue growth driven by 5G, AI, and cloud network so…
  • Strategic partnerships and innovation in AI and 6G technologies expected to b…
  • Focus on optical and IP network solutions aligning with increasing data cente…
Suurin riski
  • Historical revenue decline (-5.8% CAGR) could persist if market adoption of new technol…
  • Intense competition in the technology sector may compress margins over time.
  • Geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and market access.
Muutos
Slight increase in revenue growth expectations due to recent headlines highlighting AI and 6G partnerships, with othe…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
minor updatenews driven
GEMINI
Est.
7.53
Ero
-29.0%
Conf
0.80
DCF 7.11 → Kal. 7.53
Avaintekijät
  • Strategic shift towards higher-growth areas like AI and 6G, evidenced by new …
  • Potential for EBIT margin expansion from current low levels (3.9% trailing) t…
  • Strong net cash position (net_debt_to_ebitda of -0.99) provides financial fle…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition within the global mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions market…
  • Execution risk associated with strategic shifts and the successful adoption of new tech…
  • Sensitivity to global economic cycles and capital expenditure trends of telecommunicati…
Muutos
Slightly increased revenue growth and EBIT margin target to reflect recent positive news regarding AI partnerships an…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
assumptions adjustedpositive outlook reflected
CLAUDE
Est.
6.90
Ero
-34.9%
Conf
0.70
DCF 6.21 → Kal. 6.90
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022–2025) reflects the 5G capex cycle down…
  • AI and data-centre infrastructure buildout is a structural tailwind for Nokia…
  • Cost restructuring programme (EUR 1.2bn savings target by 2026) is progressin…
Suurin riski
  • Prolonged softness in mobile operator capex — particularly in Europe and India — could …
  • Intense competition from Ericsson and Huawei in radio access networks compresses pricin…
  • Revenue concentration risk: hyperscaler AI spending on optical/IP networking is lumpy a…
Muutos
Assumptions are unchanged from the prior model run on 2026-04-30. The spot price has edged marginally higher to EUR 1…
Ei muutosta
no-changeassumption-stablespot-price-at-52w-high
DEEPSEEK
Est.
6.87
Ero
-35.2%
Conf
0.60
DCF 6.17 → Kal. 6.87
Avaintekijät
  • AI and data center demand driving optical and IP network growth
  • Revenue stabilization after historical decline, with +3.5% YoY in 2025
  • Low trailing EBIT margin (3.9%) offers potential for expansion through cost p…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition from Huawei, Ericsson, and Samsung in telecom equipment
  • Cyclical carrier spending and mature telecom market limit growth
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022-2025) indicates structural headwinds
Muutos
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. The spot price has increased slightly but fundamental outlo…
Ei muutosta
no change

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V3.0%4.0%4.0%
+0.5pp
5.0%6.0%
+0.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite9.0%8.0%10.0%
+0.5pp
12.0%10.0%
+0.5pp
WACC8.8%9.5%9.0%8.7%9.5%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)4.0%11.5%+7.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite10.0%20.0%+10.0pp
WACC9.0%6.3%-2.7pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 10.61 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali3.9%
EBITDA-marginaali12.7%
ROE3.7%
Nettovelka / EBITDA-1.0x
P/E76.5x
EV / EBITDA22.3x
P/B2.8x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, pr
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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