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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Sampo Oyj markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHfinancials
9.28 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
8.64 €
10.39 €

5 AI-mallia arvioi SAMPO:n mediaaniksi 7.54 € (-18.7% suhteessa spotiin 9.28 €, mallien yksimielisyys 0.91). Analyytikkokonsensus 10.47 € (14 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
7.54 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-18.7%
Yksimielisyys
0.915/5 mallia
Raaka 0.86
Hajonta
σ 0.03
Analyytikkokonsensus
10.47 €(14 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia SAMPO. Huomioitavaa: Intensified competition leading to pressure on premium rates and market share. AI-konsensusarvio 7.54 18.7% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.91). Analyytikkokonsensus: 10.47 (AI -28.0%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokSAMPOSampo Oyj9.3spot10.5analysts7.197.928.649.3710.110.8
Pessimistinen (min)
6.28 €
-32.3%
Perus (mediaani)
7.54 €
-18.7%
Optimistinen (max)
7.18 €
-22.6%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:7.54→7.54(+0.0%)
WACC
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsstable-wacc

Mallien erittely

GEMINI →
Est.
8.17
Ero
-11.9%
Conf
0.75
DCF 7.18 → Kal. 8.17
Avaintekijät
  • Continued growth in non-life insurance premiums across core Nordic and UK mar…
  • Sustained underwriting profitability through effective claims management and …
  • Performance of the investment portfolio in the prevailing interest rate envir…
Suurin riski
  • Intensified competition leading to pressure on premium rates and market share.
  • Higher-than-expected claims frequency or severity due to adverse weather events or othe…
  • Adverse movements in financial markets impacting investment income and asset values.
Muutos
Minor adjustment to WACC, increasing it slightly to better align with the lower end of the sector's cost of equity ra…
WACC
+0.5pp
wacc adjustedminor change
CLAUDE →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Ero
-18.7%
Conf
0.73
DCF 6.28 → Kal. 7.54
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022–2025) was driven by Hastings and Topda…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.5% is solid for a Nordic non-life insurer; steady-…
  • Very low beta (0.23) anchors cost of equity at the lower end of the Nordic fi…
Suurin riski
  • Near-term revenue headwind: analyst consensus projects -7.8% revenue growth for next 12…
  • Catastrophe and weather-related claims volatility could pressure combined ratio above 9…
  • Rising reinsurance costs and hardening reinsurance market could compress underwriting m…
Muutos
All core assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR (3.5%), EBIT margin target (24%), WACC (10%),…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsstable-wacc
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Ero
-18.7%
Conf
0.65
DCF 6.28 → Kal. 7.54
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022-2025) driven by acquisitions and organ…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.5% reflects strong underwriting and cost control; …
  • Low beta of 0.23 and net cash position (net debt/EBITDA -6.84) reduce financi…
Suurin riski
  • Revenue contraction of -7.8% expected by analysts in 2026 could pressure margins and gr…
  • Insurance underwriting cycles and claims inflation (e.g., motor, property) may increase…
  • Regulatory changes in Nordic and UK markets could impact pricing and capital requirements.
Muutos
No material changes in assumptions from yesterday's model. All key inputs remain consistent.
Ei edellistä dataa
no change
GPT →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Ero
-18.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 6.28 → Kal. 7.54
Avaintekijät
  • Stable demand for non-life insurance products
  • Investment in new insurance technologies
  • Market expansion into new regions
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory changes impacting insurance rates
  • Economic downturn affecting premium revenues
  • Increased competition in core markets
Muutos
No significant changes in assumptions since the last model update.
Ei edellistä dataa
stabilityinsurancefinancials
GROK →ADJ
Est.
7.54
Ero
-18.7%
Conf
0.65
DCF 6.28 → Kal. 7.54
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR 10.3% (2022-2025) moderating to sustainable 4% forward
  • Trailing EBIT margin 23.5% anchors steady-state target near 22%
  • Low beta 0.23 supports WACC at lower end of Nordic financials range
Suurin riski
  • Revenue growth estimate -7.8% for next year signals near-term pressure
  • Nordic insurance competition and regulatory changes could compress margins
  • Direct A-share listing introduces liquidity transition uncertainty
Muutos
Assumptions stable with minor calibration to latest trailing ratios and low-beta WACC anchor.
Ei muutosta
stable outlook

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V3.5%3.0%4.0%6.0%4.0%
ROE-tavoite18.0%18.0%19.5%20.6%19.0%
WACC10.0%10.5%9.5%
+0.5pp
11.5%10.5%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali23.5%
EBITDA-marginaali22.2%
ROE20.6%
Nettovelka / EBITDA-6.8x
P/E14.8x
EV / EBITDA3.5x
P/B3.0x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Sampo Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Spain, Gibraltar, Germany, the Netherlands, France, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through Private Nordic, Private UK, Nordic Commercial, and Nordic Industrial segments. It offers property, casualty, liability, accident, sickness, household, homeowner, motor, travel, marine, aviation, transport, forest, livestock, health, workers compensation, car, van, and bike insurance, as well as reinsurance products under the If, Topdanmark, and Hastings brand names. Sampo Oyj was founded in 1909 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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