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UPM-Kymmene Oyj

2026-05-01🇫🇮 OMXHmaterials⚠ Top disagreement #3
25.47 EUR
52-Week Range
21.72 €
27.94 €

AI Consensus

Model estimate
20.86 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-18.1%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.69
Dispersion
σ 0.10
Analyst consensus
25.81 €(13 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on UPM. Key concern: Volatility in global commodity prices for pulp, timber, and energy, impacting... AI consensus estimate 20.86 18.1% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.77). Analyst consensus: 25.81 (AI -19.2%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokUPMUPM-Kymmene…25.5spot25.8analysts18.920.422.023.525.026.5
Bear Case (min)
16.98 €
-33.3%
Base Case (median)
20.86 €
-18.1%
Bull Case (max)
25.35 €
-0.5%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:21.02→20.86(-0.8%)
no-changestable-assumptionsq1-2026-earnings-incorporated
Model Breakdown
GPT
Est.
25.49
Gap
+0.1%
Conf
0.60
DCF 25.35 → Cal. 25.49
Key Drivers
  • Investment in biofuels and renewable materials
  • Diversification across multiple segments
  • Operational efficiency improvements
Top Risk
  • Potential ongoing volatility in commodity prices
  • Impacts of regulatory changes on bioindustry
  • Economic downturn affecting demand in construction and packaging
Delta
No significant changes in key assumptions have been identified since yesterday. The outlook remains cautious.
No previous data
stableno change
DEEPSEEK
Est.
21.00
Gap
-17.6%
Conf
0.65
DCF 18.94 → Cal. 21.00
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue decline of -6.3% CAGR (2022-2025) driven by commodity pric…
  • Biofuels turnaround and cash-flow-backed dividend (Feb 2026) signal improving…
  • Low beta (0.26) supports lower WACC within materials sector range
Top Risk
  • Cyclical pulp and paper prices could compress margins further
  • Net debt to EBITDA of 2.67x indicates moderate leverage
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 8.0% is below mid-cycle; recovery may be slower than expected
Delta
No material changes in assumptions; model parameters remain consistent with yesterday's assessment.
No change
no change
GROK
Est.
20.86
Gap
-18.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 18.74 → Cal. 20.86
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR) largely due to commodity price normal…
  • Forward revenue growth of 2.5% assumes modest volume recovery and stabilizati…
  • EBIT margin target of 10% reflects expected recovery from current 8.0% throug…
Top Risk
  • Commodity price volatility in pulp and paper markets could continue to impact revenue a…
  • Cyclical downturns in construction and industrial sectors may reduce demand for timber …
  • High net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.67) poses financial risk if earnings recovery is delayed.
Delta
No significant changes in assumptions since yesterday; maintaining revenue growth and margin recovery outlook based o…
No change
no changestable outlook
GEMINI
Est.
20.26
Gap
-20.5%
Conf
0.75
DCF 17.89 → Cal. 20.26
Key Drivers
  • Strategic investments and performance of UPM's Biofuels business, driving div…
  • Recovery in global demand and pricing for traditional forest products, includ…
  • Operational efficiency and cost management initiatives across diverse busines…
Top Risk
  • Volatility in global commodity prices for pulp, timber, and energy, impacting profitabi…
  • Potential global economic slowdown affecting industrial and consumer demand for materials.
  • Intensified competition in traditional paper and pulp markets, pressuring margins.
Delta
No significant changes in key valuation assumptions compared to yesterday's model.
No previous data
no change
CLAUDE
Est.
19.63
Gap
-22.9%
Conf
0.68
DCF 16.98 → Cal. 19.63
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% (2022-2025) is primarily driven by commodity…
  • Q1 2026 earnings call highlights ongoing challenges but also strategic naviga…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 8.0% is below mid-cycle potential; steady-state targe…
Top Risk
  • Structural decline in Communication Papers (graphic papers) segment continues to weigh …
  • Elevated net leverage (2.67x EBITDA) limits financial flexibility if EBITDA deteriorate…
  • Pulp and paper prices are commodity-linked and subject to significant cyclical volatili…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model run; Q1 2026 earnings call data is now available (published 2026-04-…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsq1-2026-earnings-incorporated

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y1.0%2.0%2.0%3.0%2.5%
EBIT Margin Target10.0%10.0%9.0%12.0%10.0%
WACC8.8%8.7%8.5%8.5%9.0%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)2.0%5.5%+3.5pp
EBIT Margin Target10.0%13.8%+3.8pp
WACC8.7%7.2%-1.5pp
Based on spot price 25.47 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin8.0%
EBITDA Margin12.1%
ROE5.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.7x
P/E Trailing25.0x
EV / EBITDA14.4x
P/B1.3x
Analyst Range– – –
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, parquet manufacturing, and other industrial applications; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacin
Source: Yahoo Finance

Recent News

UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMKF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...2026-04-30
A Look At UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HLSE:UPM) Valuation After Recent Annual Results2026-04-02
Why UPM-Kymmene (HLSE:UPM) Is Up 6.4% After Biofuels Turnaround And Cash-Flow-Backed Dividend2026-02-05
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMKF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...2026-02-04
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