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UPM-Kymmene Oyj

2026-05-01🇫🇮 OMXHmaterials⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #3
25.47 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
21.72 €
27.94 €

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
20.86 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-18.1%
Yksimielisyys
0.775/5 mallia
Raaka 0.69
Hajonta
σ 0.10
Analyytikkokonsensus
25.81 €(13 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia UPM. Huomioitavaa: Volatility in global commodity prices for pulp, timber, and energy, impacting... AI-konsensusarvio 20.86 18.1% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.77). Analyytikkokonsensus: 25.81 (AI -19.2%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokUPMUPM-Kymmene…25.5spot25.8analysts18.920.422.023.525.026.5
Pessimistinen (min)
16.98 €
-33.3%
Perus (mediaani)
20.86 €
-18.1%
Optimistinen (max)
25.35 €
-0.5%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:21.02→20.86(-0.8%)
no-changestable-assumptionsq1-2026-earnings-incorporated
Mallien erittely
GPT
Est.
25.49
Ero
+0.1%
Conf
0.60
DCF 25.35 → Kal. 25.49
Avaintekijät
  • Investment in biofuels and renewable materials
  • Diversification across multiple segments
  • Operational efficiency improvements
Suurin riski
  • Potential ongoing volatility in commodity prices
  • Impacts of regulatory changes on bioindustry
  • Economic downturn affecting demand in construction and packaging
Muutos
No significant changes in key assumptions have been identified since yesterday. The outlook remains cautious.
Ei edellistä dataa
stableno change
DEEPSEEK
Est.
21.00
Ero
-17.6%
Conf
0.65
DCF 18.94 → Kal. 21.00
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline of -6.3% CAGR (2022-2025) driven by commodity pric…
  • Biofuels turnaround and cash-flow-backed dividend (Feb 2026) signal improving…
  • Low beta (0.26) supports lower WACC within materials sector range
Suurin riski
  • Cyclical pulp and paper prices could compress margins further
  • Net debt to EBITDA of 2.67x indicates moderate leverage
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 8.0% is below mid-cycle; recovery may be slower than expected
Muutos
No material changes in assumptions; model parameters remain consistent with yesterday's assessment.
Ei muutosta
no change
GROK
Est.
20.86
Ero
-18.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 18.74 → Kal. 20.86
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR) largely due to commodity price normal…
  • Forward revenue growth of 2.5% assumes modest volume recovery and stabilizati…
  • EBIT margin target of 10% reflects expected recovery from current 8.0% throug…
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility in pulp and paper markets could continue to impact revenue a…
  • Cyclical downturns in construction and industrial sectors may reduce demand for timber …
  • High net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.67) poses financial risk if earnings recovery is delayed.
Muutos
No significant changes in assumptions since yesterday; maintaining revenue growth and margin recovery outlook based o…
Ei muutosta
no changestable outlook
GEMINI
Est.
20.26
Ero
-20.5%
Conf
0.75
DCF 17.89 → Kal. 20.26
Avaintekijät
  • Strategic investments and performance of UPM's Biofuels business, driving div…
  • Recovery in global demand and pricing for traditional forest products, includ…
  • Operational efficiency and cost management initiatives across diverse busines…
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in global commodity prices for pulp, timber, and energy, impacting profitabi…
  • Potential global economic slowdown affecting industrial and consumer demand for materials.
  • Intensified competition in traditional paper and pulp markets, pressuring margins.
Muutos
No significant changes in key valuation assumptions compared to yesterday's model.
Ei edellistä dataa
no change
CLAUDE
Est.
19.63
Ero
-22.9%
Conf
0.68
DCF 16.98 → Kal. 19.63
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% (2022-2025) is primarily driven by commodity…
  • Q1 2026 earnings call highlights ongoing challenges but also strategic naviga…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 8.0% is below mid-cycle potential; steady-state targe…
Suurin riski
  • Structural decline in Communication Papers (graphic papers) segment continues to weigh …
  • Elevated net leverage (2.67x EBITDA) limits financial flexibility if EBITDA deteriorate…
  • Pulp and paper prices are commodity-linked and subject to significant cyclical volatili…
Muutos
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model run; Q1 2026 earnings call data is now available (published 2026-04-…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsq1-2026-earnings-incorporated

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V1.0%2.0%2.0%3.0%2.5%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite10.0%10.0%9.0%12.0%10.0%
WACC8.8%8.7%8.5%8.5%9.0%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)2.0%5.5%+3.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite10.0%13.8%+3.8pp
WACC8.7%7.2%-1.5pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 25.47 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali8.0%
EBITDA-marginaali12.1%
ROE5.4%
Nettovelka / EBITDA2.7x
P/E25.0x
EV / EBITDA14.4x
P/B1.3x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, parquet manufacturing, and other industrial applications; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacin
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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