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UPMUPM-Kymmene Oyj

📅 2026-04-03🇫🇮 OMXHmaterials
26.71 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
21.72 €
27.94 €

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
21.30 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-20.3%
Yksimielisyys
0.825/5 mallia
Hajonta
σ 0.07
Analyytikkokonsensus
26.25 €(14 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia UPM. Huomioitavaa: Exposure to volatile commodity prices (pulp, timber, energy) which can signif... AI-konsensusarvio 21.30 20.3% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.82). Analyytikkokonsensus: 26.25 (AI -18.9%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokUPMUPM-Kymmene…26.7spot26.3analysts20.021.522.924.425.927.4
Pessimistinen (min)
18.30 €
-31.5%
Perus (mediaani)
21.30 €
-20.3%
Optimistinen (max)
23.54 €
-11.9%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:21.30→21.30(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Mallien erittely
GPT
Est.
24.36
Ero
-8.8%
Conf
0.70
DCF 23.54 → Kal. 24.36
Avaintekijät
  • Focus on biofuels and renewable products may drive growth
  • Operational efficiencies could improve margins
  • Market conditions impacting commodity prices
Suurin riski
  • Fluctuating commodity prices impacting revenues
  • Increased competition in renewable materials
  • Potential regulatory changes affecting operations
Muutos
Assumptions remain stable with a conservative revenue CAGR forecast reflecting current market conditions.
Ei edellistä dataa
forecastEBITWACC
GEMINI
Est.
24.19
Ero
-9.4%
Conf
0.80
DCF 23.30 → Kal. 24.19
Avaintekijät
  • Strategic shift towards forest-based bioindustry, including biofuels and bioc…
  • Potential for operational efficiencies and margin recovery, supported by the …
  • Diversified business segments (pulp, paper, timber, energy, biomaterials) pro…
Suurin riski
  • Exposure to volatile commodity prices (pulp, timber, energy) which can significantly im…
  • Sensitivity to global economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for paper, packa…
  • Execution risks associated with strategic investments in new areas like biofuels and ot…
Muutos
No significant changes in core valuation assumptions were made, reflecting a consistent view on UPM's long-term outlook.
Ei edellistä dataa
no change
CLAUDE
Est.
21.30
Ero
-20.3%
Conf
0.68
DCF 19.18 → Kal. 21.30
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% (2022-2025) reflects post-2022 commodity pri…
  • Forward EPS consensus of EUR 2.11 vs trailing EPS of EUR 0.91 implies a signi…
  • Analyst 1-year revenue growth estimate of -12.2% signals continued near-term …
Suurin riski
  • Structural decline in Communication Papers (graphic/newsprint) segment continues to be …
  • Elevated net debt/EBITDA of 2.77x limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivit…
  • Analyst 1-year revenue growth estimate of -12.2% signals continued near-term top-line p…
Muutos
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. No new material primary data has emerged to…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DEEPSEEK
Est.
21.18
Ero
-20.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 19.00 → Kal. 21.18
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) driven by commodity price n…
  • Target EBIT margin of 10.5% reflects expansion from trailing 7.8% as company …
  • Low beta (0.28) and stable materials sector profile support a WACC at the low…
Suurin riski
  • Cyclical exposure to pulp, paper, and timber prices creates revenue and margin volatility.
  • Execution risk in transitioning to higher-margin bio-based product portfolio.
  • High net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (2.77x) indicates financial leverage and interest rate se…
Muutos
Maintained all assumptions unchanged from yesterday's model as no new primary source data warrants a revision. The co…
Ei muutosta
unchanged
GROK
Est.
20.68
Ero
-22.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 18.30 → Kal. 20.68
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) reflects commodity price no…
  • Forward CAGR of 2.5% assumes modest volume growth and stabilization in pricin…
  • EBIT margin target of 10% anticipates recovery from trailing 7.8% due to cost…
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility in pulp and paper markets may continue to impact revenue and…
  • Cyclical exposure in materials sector heightens risk from global economic downturns.
  • Elevated net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.77) could limit financial flexibility for investme…
Muutos
Assumptions remain consistent with the previous model, with no significant changes in outlook or data inputs.
Ei muutosta
stable assumptionsno change

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V2.0%1.5%1.5%2.0%2.5%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite10.0%10.5%9.0%12.0%10.0%
WACC8.7%8.8%6.5%8.5%9.2%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali7.8%
EBITDA-marginaali11.5%
ROE4.8%
Nettovelka / EBITDA2.8x
P/E29.3x
EV / EBITDA15.5x
P/B1.4x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –

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Tilaa sähköpostiuutisetIlmainen · Ei roskapostia · Peruuta milloin vain · Tietosuoja
AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
Kaikki sisältö on tekoälymallien tuottamaa ja voi sisältää virheitä. Tämä on kokeellinen työkalu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa, -tutkimusta eikä -suositusta. Käyttöehdot · Tietosuoja