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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
UPM-Kymmene Oyj markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHmaterials
25.22 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
21.72 €
27.94 €

5 AI-mallia arvioi UPM:n mediaaniksi 20.30 € (-19.5% suhteessa spotiin 25.22 €, mallien yksimielisyys 0.85). Analyytikkokonsensus 25.94 € (14 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
20.30 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-19.5%
Yksimielisyys
0.855/5 mallia
Raaka 0.78
Hajonta
σ 0.06
Analyytikkokonsensus
25.94 €(14 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia UPM. Huomioitavaa: Volatility in raw material and energy prices impacting profitability. AI-konsensusarvio 20.30 19.5% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.85). Analyytikkokonsensus: 25.94 (AI -21.7%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokUPMUPM-Kymmene…25.2spot25.9analysts18.920.522.023.625.126.7
Pessimistinen (min)
16.98 €
-32.7%
Perus (mediaani)
20.30 €
-19.5%
Optimistinen (max)
21.50 €
-14.8%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:19.88→20.30(+2.1%)
CAGR
+2.0pp(1 ↑)
MARG
+2.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold

Mallien erittely

GPT →
Est.
22.83
Ero
-9.5%
Conf
0.50
DCF 21.50 → Kal. 22.83
Avaintekijät
  • Investment in renewables and bioindustry
  • Volatility in commodity prices
  • Market demand for wood-based products and biofuels
Suurin riski
  • Fluctuating raw material prices
  • Regulatory changes in environmental policies
  • Economic downturns impacting demand
Muutos
Assumptions have been derived based on UPM's operational metrics and market outlook.
MARG
+2.0pp
WACC
+0.5pp
valuationfinancials
GEMINI →
Est.
21.65
Ero
-14.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 19.82 → Kal. 21.65
Avaintekijät
  • Strategic transformation and investment in growth areas, particularly biofuel…
  • Cyclicality of global commodity prices for pulp, paper, and wood products.
  • Demand trends in key end-markets such as packaging, specialty papers, and con…
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in raw material and energy prices impacting profitability.
  • Economic downturns affecting industrial and consumer demand for UPM's products.
  • Intense competition across all forest-based bioindustry segments.
Muutos
Adjusted revenue growth outlook to reflect potential stabilization and strategic initiatives, particularly in biofuel…
CAGR
+2.0pp
revenue growth adjusted
GROK →
Est.
20.30
Ero
-19.5%
Conf
0.60
DCF 17.89 → Kal. 20.30
Avaintekijät
  • Low beta of 0.21 supports below-sector WACC
  • Pulp and energy segments provide volume stability
  • Biofuels and biochemicals offer modest long-term growth
Suurin riski
  • Commodity pulp and paper price cyclicality
  • High net debt/EBITDA of 2.67 increases sensitivity to downturns
  • Negative historical revenue CAGR may persist if volumes stay flat
Muutos
No material change in assumptions; updated as-of date only.
Ei edellistä dataa
date roll
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
19.88
Ero
-21.2%
Conf
0.65
DCF 17.28 → Kal. 19.88
Avaintekijät
  • Biofuels turnaround and strategic focus on renewable diesel and biochemicals …
  • Revenue decline from 2022 peak (11.72B EUR) to 2025 (9.66B EUR) reflects comm…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 8.0% is depressed by cyclical pulp and paper pricing;…
Suurin riski
  • Continued weakness in graphic papers and communication papers segments due to digital s…
  • Commodity price volatility in pulp, energy, and biofuels could compress margins below t…
  • High net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.67x) limits financial flexibility in a downturn
Muutos
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. All four key inputs remain the same.
Ei edellistä dataa
no change
CLAUDE →
Est.
19.67
Ero
-22.0%
Conf
0.68
DCF 16.98 → Kal. 19.67
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) is commodity-cycle-driven (…
  • Analyst consensus projects -5.3% revenue in near-term (1Y) but 43.7% EPS grow…
  • Strategic pivot toward higher-value specialty segments (adhesive materials, s…
Suurin riski
  • Secular decline in graphic/communication papers segment remains a structural drag on re…
  • Elevated leverage (net debt/EBITDA 2.67x) limits financial flexibility if commodity cyc…
  • Biofuels segment exposed to regulatory risk (EU renewable fuel mandates, blending oblig…
Muutos
Assumptions are unchanged from the prior model (2026-05-21). No new material information from primary sources warrant…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V1.0%2.0%1.5%
+2.0pp
3.0%2.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite10.0%10.0%9.5%10.0%
+2.0pp
9.0%
WACC8.8%9.2%8.0%8.5%
+0.5pp
8.5%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)2.0%4.9%+2.9pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite10.0%13.2%+3.2pp
WACC8.5%7.3%-1.2pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 25.22 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali8.0%
EBITDA-marginaali12.1%
ROE5.4%
Nettovelka / EBITDA2.7x
P/E24.7x
EV / EBITDA14.2x
P/B1.3x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, parquet manufacturing, and other industrial applications; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacin
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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