Model Accuracy
How well do model estimates predict actual price direction?
Backtest measures each model's own estimate (no analyst blending), scoped to the current engine version.
Model Accuracy — 1 Day
| Model | Directional Accuracy | Mean Absolute Error | Prediction Bias | Hit Rate (±5%) | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 52.7% | 29.6% | +4.2% | 19.9% | 311 |
| Gemini | 52.3% | 30.6% | +5.4% | 15.3% | 308 |
| DeepSeek | 52.2% | 29.9% | -6.3% | 14.9% | 295 |
| Grok | 52.1% | 29.4% | -2.5% | 9.8% | 307 |
| GPT | 51.3% | 32% | -3% | 9.6% | 312 |
Directional Accuracy
Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Accuracy metrics are based on short-term price movements and limited data. They do not indicate future prediction quality.
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