AI vs Analysts — relative benchmark
Not a who-was-right contest: systematic bias, the value of combining both, and how it splits by market regime.
1401 forecast windows2026-03-17 – 2026-06-09engine v6+v7
Does AI add information on top of analysts?
A combined forecast weighting the AI panel at 25% and analysts at 75% was less wrong than either alone: mean absolute error 12.6% vs analysts 14.1% and AI 24.6%.
Out-of-sample check: blend weight fitted on data up to 2026-05-05, then evaluated on the 575 later observations — blend 12.6% vs analysts 14.3%.
Error as a function of the blend weight
Each point = mean absolute error when the forecast mixes AI and analysts at that weight. The dip between the endpoints is the whole story: the blend beats both.
optimal weight (in-sample)out-of-sample check
AI panel bias
-8.5%
Mean forecast error of the AI panel median (no analyst blending) vs the realized price. Negative = systematically conservative.
Analyst bias
+8.8%
Mean forecast error of the analyst consensus target. Positive = systematically optimistic — consistent with the documented analyst-optimism effect.
Scorecard · n=1401 · 2026-03-17–2026-06-09
| AI panel | Analysts | Blend (25% AI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean absolute error | 24.6% | 14.1% | 12.6% |
| Directional accuracy | 52.2% | 56.6% | 60.2% |
| Systematic bias | -8.5% | +8.8% | — |
Engine v8 — separate window · n=842 · 2026-06-10–2026-07-29
| AI panel | Analysts | |
|---|---|---|
| Mean absolute error | 31.3% | 13.9% |
| Directional accuracy | 50.4% | 68.2% |
| Systematic bias | -9.3% | +12.1% |
Engine v8+v8.1 forecasts, scored separately: the v8 cap reform changed the estimate distribution, so these windows are not comparable with the v6+v7 scorecard above. Early sample — treat as indicative.
Forecast error over time
Daily mean forecast error (estimate vs realized price at the horizon). 0% = unbiased.
AI panelAnalysts
By market regime
| n | AI bias | Analyst bias | AI MAE | Analyst MAE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-market windows | 711 | -9.7% | +7.0% | 25.3% | 13.9% |
| Down-market windows | 690 | -7.2% | +10.7% | 24.0% | 14.3% |
Regime = sign of the median realized return across tracked companies in each forecast window (derived from our own data, no external index).
Read this before quoting the numbers
- The AI series is the pure-model panel median — the models' own view with no analyst blending. Since v8.1 (2026-07-14) this is the same series as the site's headline consensus; before that the headline was a calibrated blend (scored separately as a research series).
- Main measurement window: engine v6+v7. Engine v8-family forecasts are scored in their own block above (different cap regime, not comparable). 500 v8 forecasts are still maturing — the next windows mature 2026-08-29.
- The optimal blend weight is fitted in-sample; the out-of-sample line above is the honest check. Treat both as indicative — the sample is a few months, not years.
- Analyst targets come from Yahoo Finance and update with a lag, which flatters analyst responsiveness slightly.
- Forecasts are 12-month targets scored at a 30-day horizon — this measures direction and calibration, not whether the 12-month target ends up exact.
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