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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Amazon.com Inc. markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-06-17🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #2
246.00 USD
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$196.00
$278.56

Tilanne 2026-06-17: 5 AI-mallia arvioi AMZN:n mediaaniksi 222.81 USD (-9.4% suhteessa spotiin 246.00 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 0.72). Analyytikkokonsensus 312.51 USD (63 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$222.81
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-9.4%
Yksimielisyys
0.725/5 mallia
Raaka 0.59
Hajonta
σ 0.13
Analyytikkokonsensus
$312.51(63 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia AMZN. Huomioitavaa: Intense competition across all operating segments, including e-commerce, clou... AI-konsensusarvio 222.81 9.4% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.72). Analyytikkokonsensus: 312.51 (AI -28.7%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAMZNAmazon.com …246.0spot312.5analysts166198231263296328
Pessimistinen (min)
$125.00
-49.2%
Perus (mediaani)
$222.81
-9.4%
Optimistinen (max)
$221.42
-10.0%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:222.81→222.81(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG
+2.0pp(2 ↑)
WACC
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
stable-waccstable-growthstable-margin

Mallien erittely

GEMINI →
Est.
248.75
Ero
+1.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 221.42 → Kal. 248.75
Avaintekijät
  • Continued strong growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), particularly driven by …
  • Expansion and monetization of advertising services, leveraging Amazon's vast …
  • Sustained growth in the core e-commerce business through innovation, logistic…
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition across all operating segments, including e-commerce, cloud computin…
  • Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions globally, impacting b…
  • Sensitivity of e-commerce and advertising segments to macroeconomic downturns and shift…
Muutos
EBIT margin target adjusted upwards, reflecting expected margin expansion from higher-margin segments like AWS and ad…
MARG
+2.0pp
margin expansion expected
GPT →
Est.
239.21
Ero
-2.8%
Conf
0.70
DCF 207.80 → Kal. 239.21
Avaintekijät
  • Continued growth in AWS and advertising revenue
  • Investments in new technologies and product offerings
  • Strong brand presence and customer loyalty
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory scrutiny impacting business operations
  • Competitive pressures in e-commerce and cloud services
  • Economic downturns affecting consumer spending
Muutos
No significant changes observed since yesterday, indicating a stable outlook.
Ei edellistä dataa
CLAUDE →
Est.
222.81
Ero
-9.4%
Conf
0.73
DCF 184.36 → Kal. 222.81
Avaintekijät
  • AWS cloud and AI infrastructure demand remains the primary growth engine; hea…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) provides a strong anchor; analys…
  • Advertising segment (high-margin, ~$60B+ annualized run-rate) and third-party…
Suurin riski
  • Extremely high capex intensity (17.7% of revenue, ~$132B) for AI/cloud infrastructure c…
  • FTC scrutiny over ad pricing and disclosures (per Yahoo Finance, June 2026) could resul…
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions (EU, US FTC) could cons…
Muutos
Assumptions are unchanged versus yesterday's model. The FTC ad practices scrutiny headline (June 16-17, 2026) introdu…
Ei muutosta
stable-waccstable-growthstable-margin
DEEPSEEK →ADJTV
Est.
181.26
Ero
-26.3%
Conf
0.65
DCF 125.00 → Kal. 181.26
Avaintekijät
  • AWS growth driven by AI and Graviton5 chip margins
  • E-commerce logistics scale becoming a broader service offering
  • Advertising revenue expansion as a high-margin segment
Suurin riski
  • Intense competition in cloud and e-commerce
  • Regulatory and antitrust pressures
  • High capex requirements (17.7% of revenue) constrain free cash flow
Muutos
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. All four key inputs remain the same.
Ei muutosta
no change
GROK →ADJ
Est.
181.26
Ero
-26.3%
Conf
0.65
DCF 125.00 → Kal. 181.26
Avaintekijät
  • AWS segment continues to deliver high incremental margins with AI-driven demand
  • Advertising and Prime subscription mix shift supports structural margin expan…
  • North America retail operating leverage partially offsets International segme…
Suurin riski
  • High beta (1.44) implies elevated sensitivity to macro and interest rate changes
  • Heavy ongoing capex (17.7% of revenue) delays free-cash-flow realization
  • Regulatory scrutiny on advertising practices could result in material penalties
Muutos
Slight increase in WACC to reflect beta-driven risk premium and modest upward revision to target margin given AWS mom…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+1.0pp
WACC
+1.0pp
wacc upmargin up

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V13.0%10.0%14.5%11.0%10.5%
+0.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite16.0%14.0%18.0%
+2.0pp
21.0%14.0%
+1.0pp
WACC9.7%9.5%11.0%9.5%11.5%
+1.0pp
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)11.0%14.0%+3.0pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite16.0%20.4%+4.4pp
WACC9.7%8.6%-1.1pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $246.00 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali10.8%
EBITDA-marginaali21.0%
ROE22.1%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.6x
P/E29.1x
EV / EBITDA17.6x
P/B6.0x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli207.00 – 370.00
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, ent
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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