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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Amazon.com Inc. markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-07-31🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #3
235.50 USD
edellinen päätöskurssi — ei reaaliaikainen
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$196.00
$278.56

Tilanne 2026-07-31: 5 AI-mallia arvioi AMZN:n mediaaniksi 181.09 USD (-23.1% suhteessa spotiin 235.50 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 0.65). Analyytikkokonsensus 313.07 USD (61 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$181.09
Mallin puhdas arvio — ei analyytikkosekoitusta
Ero
-23.1%
Yksimielisyys
0.655/5 mallia
Raaka 0.65
Hajonta
σ 17.9%
Analyytikkokonsensus
$313.07(61 analyytikkoa)
Kalibroitu sekoitus (tutkimussarja)
$220.68
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia AMZN. Huomioitavaa: Elevated capex intensity at 17.7% of revenue compresses near-term free cash f... AI-konsensusarvio 181.09 23.1% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on kohtalainen (0.65). Analyytikkokonsensus: 313.07 (AI -42.2%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAMZNAmazon.com …235.5spot313.1analysts130170211251292333
Pessimistinen (min)
$149.31
-36.6%
Perus (mediaani)
$181.09
-23.1%
Optimistinen (max)
$240.45
2.1%
Bear/Base/Bull: mallien oma haarukka (12 kk:n arvot)

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:167.30→181.09(+8.2%)
CAGR
+1.0pp(3 ↑)
MARG
+0.5pp(3 ↑)
post-earnings-updateaws-beat-confirmedrevenue-cagr-raised

Mikä muuttui (7 pv)

2026-07-24 → 2026-07-31: AMZN: 5 mallin AI-konsensusarvio liikkui $151.00 → $181.09 (+19.9 %); mediaani-WACC 11.0 % → 11.0 % (+0.00 pp); terminaalikasvu 2.5 % → 2.5 % (+0.00 pp); mallien hajonta σ 12.8 % → 17.9 %. Kokeellisia malliarvioita — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

Mittari7 pv sitten (2026-07-24)Nyt (2026-07-31)Muutos
AI-konsensusarvio$151.00$181.09+19.9%
Mediaani-WACC11.00%11.00%+0.00 pp
Mediaani terminaalikasvu2.50%2.50%+0.00 pp
Mediaani liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)11.0%12.0%+1.00 pp
Mediaani EBIT-marginaalitavoite14.0%14.0%+0.00 pp
Mallien hajonta σ12.8%17.9%+5.12 pp

Mallien erittely

CLAUDE →
Est.
240.45
Ero
+2.1%
Conf
0.81
DCF 240.45 → Kal. 262.24
Avaintekijät
  • Q2 2026 earnings beat confirmed: AWS growth acceleration and record AI capex …
  • Advertising segment grew 26% in Q2 2026, now a high-margin, scaled business —…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) is being accelerated by analyst …
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex intensity at 17.7% of revenue compresses near-term free cash flow; CEO s…
  • AWS faces intensifying competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, as well as em…
  • Beta of 1.461 is above the CAPM threshold used for WACC; company carries meaningful mar…
Muutos
Q2 2026 earnings results have now been published and confirmed a beat on both AWS growth and overall profitability, w…
CAGR
+1.0pp
MARG
+2.0pp
post-earnings-updateaws-beat-confirmedrevenue-cagr-raised
GPT →TV
Est.
220.38
Ero
-6.4%
Conf
0.62
DCF 220.38 → Kal. 248.19
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% provides a solid base, but a modest moderati…
  • Recent analyst revenue growth expectations of 16.6% and earnings growth of 74…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 10.8% leaves room for steady-state expansion from mix…
Suurin riski
  • Heavy capital spending could pressure near-term free cash flow and delay margin expansi…
  • Retail and logistics execution can keep margins under pressure if fulfillment costs rise.
  • AWS or advertising growth could slow if enterprise spending or digital ad demand weakens.
Muutos
Growth is nudged up slightly versus the prior view to reflect stronger recent AWS and advertising momentum, while mar…
CAGR
+2.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
fresh viewgrowth upmargin stable
GEMINI →TV
Est.
181.09
Ero
-23.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 181.09 → Kal. 220.68
Avaintekijät
  • AWS growth acceleration driven by secular demand for cloud computing and gene…
  • High-margin advertising services expanding rapidly and outperforming core ret…
  • Operational efficiencies and fulfillment network optimization driving retail …
Suurin riski
  • Heavy capital expenditure requirements for AI infrastructure pressuring near-term free …
  • Intense competition in cloud computing from major tech rivals like Microsoft and Google
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in the US and Europe impacting business operations
Muutos
Following a strong Q2 earnings beat driven by AWS and advertising growth, we have revised our 5-year revenue CAGR and…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
earnings beataws accelerationcapex expansion
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
164.17
Ero
-30.3%
Conf
0.70
DCF 164.17 → Kal. 208.84
Avaintekijät
  • AWS continues to drive high-margin cloud and AI revenue growth, with Q2 2026 …
  • Advertising business expanding rapidly, with Q2 2026 advertising revenue up 2…
  • Prime subscription base provides recurring, high-margin income and enhances c…
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions across multiple jurisdictions could impact bu…
  • Intense competition in cloud computing from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud could pres…
  • Elevated capex (17.7% of revenue) may pressure free cash flow and returns if AI investm…
Muutos
Maintained revenue CAGR and EBIT margin target, reflecting strong Q2 2026 results and AWS growth. WACC unchanged at 11%.
Ei muutosta
no change
GROK →
Est.
149.31
Ero
-36.6%
Conf
0.60
DCF 149.31 → Kal. 198.44
Avaintekijät
  • AWS and advertising revenue mix shift driving margin expansion
  • Historical revenue CAGR 11.7% (2022-2025) with near-term analyst growth 16.6%
  • Heavy ongoing AI/capex investment expected to support long-term growth
Suurin riski
  • Elevated capex intensity (17.7% of revenue) may pressure near-term free cash flow
  • Retail segment margin pressure from competition and promotions
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in US and EU
Muutos
No material change in core assumptions; model rerun with latest facts.
Ei edellistä dataa
rerun

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V14.0%
+1.0pp
12.0%12.0%
+0.5pp
14.0%
+2.5pp
12.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite19.0%
+2.0pp
14.0%14.0%
+0.5pp
12.5%
+0.5pp
14.0%
WACC11.6%11.0%10.5%9.5%11.5%
Terminaalikasvu3.0%2.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)12.0%18.4%+6.4pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite14.0%23.0%+9.0pp
WACC11.0%8.6%-2.4pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $235.50 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali10.8%
EBITDA-marginaali21.0%
ROE22.1%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.6x
P/E27.9x
EV / EBITDA16.8x
P/B5.7x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli207.00 – 370.00
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, ent
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

Viimeisimmät uutiset

Amazon earnings: AWS's growth rate 'no doubt' justifies the big AI spending2026-07-30
Amazon Q2 earnings results beat Wall Street's estimates, as AWS continues to boom2026-07-30
AMZN Stock Rises After Q2, AWS Beat: CEO Says Even Higher CapEx Won’t Be Enough To Meet Soaring Cloud Demand2026-07-31
The Bull Case For Amazon.com (AMZN) Could Change Following Surging AWS Growth And Record AI Capex - Learn Why2026-07-31

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