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Neste Oyj

2026-05-01🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #1
29.37 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
8.70 €
30.75 €

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
19.40 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-33.9%
Yksimielisyys
0.644/5 mallia ⚠
Raaka 0.53
Hajonta
σ 0.19
Analyytikkokonsensus
26.95 €(18 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia NESTE. Huomioitavaa: Volatility in crude oil and renewable feedstock prices impacting profitability. AI-konsensusarvio 19.40 33.9% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on kohtalainen (0.64). Analyytikkokonsensus: 26.95 (AI -28.0%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNESTENeste Oyj29.4spot26.9analysts18.220.723.125.628.130.6
Pessimistinen (min)
16.17 €
-44.9%
Perus (mediaani)
19.40 €
-33.9%
Optimistinen (max)
29.66 €
1.0%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:19.71→19.40(-1.6%)
CAGR
+1.0pp(2 ↑)
MARG
+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
WACC
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no changeassumptions adjustedmetric change
Mallien erittely
GPT
Est.
28.84
Ero
-1.8%
Conf
0.70
DCF 29.66 → Kal. 28.84
Avaintekijät
  • Transition to renewable energy
  • Expansion of sustainable aviation fuel market
  • Investment in technology and infrastructure
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in oil prices
  • Regulatory changes in energy policies
  • Competition in renewable fuel markets
Muutos
Assumptions remain stable with a positive outlook on revenue growth.
Ei edellistä dataa
stableenergy
DEEPSEEKADJ
Est.
19.40
Ero
-33.9%
Conf
0.55
DCF 16.17 → Kal. 19.40
Avaintekijät
  • Transition to renewable diesel and SAF provides volume growth opportunity, of…
  • Historical revenue decline (-9.6% CAGR) largely driven by post-2022 commodity…
  • Trailing EBIT margin (2.1%) is depressed due to down-cycle; mid-cycle margin …
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility (crude oil, renewable credits) could compress margins further
  • Regulatory changes in EU/US renewable fuel mandates may impact SAF and renewable diesel…
  • High net debt to EBITDA (2.01x) increases financial risk in a downturn
Muutos
No material change in assumptions vs yesterday's model. The same forward CAGR, margin target, WACC, and terminal grow…
Ei muutosta
no change
GEMINIADJ
Est.
19.40
Ero
-33.9%
Conf
0.75
DCF 16.17 → Kal. 19.40
Avaintekijät
  • Growth in renewable products (sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel) dr…
  • Strategic investments in production capacity for sustainable fuels.
  • Increasing global demand for lower-emission fuels due to environmental regula…
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in crude oil and renewable feedstock prices impacting profitability.
  • Intense competition in the renewable fuels market from new entrants and established pla…
  • Regulatory changes or delays in policy support for sustainable fuels.
Muutos
Adjusted revenue growth upwards reflecting a more optimistic renewable product outlook, while slightly moderating the…
CAGR
+1.0pp
MARG
-0.5pp
WACC
+0.5pp
assumptions adjustedmetric change
GROKADJ
Est.
19.40
Ero
-33.9%
Conf
0.75
DCF 16.17 → Kal. 19.40
Avaintekijät
  • Strong strategic focus on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel as c…
  • Expected revenue stabilization and growth driven by increasing demand for ren…
  • Margin expansion anticipated from a higher mix of value-added renewable produ…
Suurin riski
  • Exposure to fluctuating energy commodity prices could impact revenue and profitability.
  • Regulatory changes in renewable fuel policies may alter demand dynamics.
  • Elevated net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.01) presents financial risk if growth underperforms.
Muutos
Slight upward adjustment to revenue growth assumptions reflecting optimism in renewable segment demand, while other a…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
minor updaterevenue adjustment
CLAUDEEI VALIDI
Est.
29.37
Ero
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Muutos
Ei edellistä dataa

Arvostusoletukset

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V3.0%3.5%
+1.0pp
4.0%4.0%
+0.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite8.0%7.5%
-0.5pp
12.0%7.5%
+0.5pp
WACC9.3%9.0%
+0.5pp
8.8%9.2%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)3.8%10.4%+6.6pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite7.8%12.8%+5.0pp
WACC9.1%6.5%-2.6pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 29.37 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali2.1%
EBITDA-marginaali9.3%
ROE9.8%
Nettovelka / EBITDA2.0x
P/E31.5x
EV / EBITDA14.7x
P/B3.0x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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