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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Neste Oyj markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-06-17🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #1
26.82 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
10.77 €
31.01 €

Tilanne 2026-06-17: 5 AI-mallia arvioi NESTE:n mediaaniksi 23.20 € (-13.5% suhteessa spotiin 26.82 €, mallien yksimielisyys 0.64). Analyytikkokonsensus 29.37 € (18 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
23.20 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-13.5%
Yksimielisyys
0.645/5 mallia
Raaka 0.54
Hajonta
σ 0.19
Analyytikkokonsensus
29.37 €(18 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia NESTE. Huomioitavaa: Volatility in commodity prices for both traditional fossil feedstocks and ren... AI-konsensusarvio 23.20 13.5% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on kohtalainen (0.64). Analyytikkokonsensus: 29.37 (AI -21.0%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNESTENeste Oyj26.8spot29.4analysts19.823.026.229.332.535.7
Pessimistinen (min)
17.90 €
-33.3%
Perus (mediaani)
23.20 €
-13.5%
Optimistinen (max)
36.21 €
35.0%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:23.20→23.20(+0.0%)
WACC
-0.5pp(2 ↓)
stable-waccstable-cagrstable-margin

Mallien erittely

GPT →
Est.
34.16
Ero
+27.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 36.21 → Kal. 34.16
Avaintekijät
  • Investment in renewable products and technologies
  • Market expansion for sustainable aviation fuel
  • Strong focus on sustainability initiatives
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in commodity prices
  • Regulatory changes affecting oil industry
  • Competition from emerging renewable energy companies
Muutos
Assumptions remain stable, reflecting the company's commitment to sustainability and growth in renewable segments.
Ei edellistä dataa
stabilityenergy
GROK →
Est.
23.55
Ero
-12.2%
Conf
0.55
DCF 21.05 → Kal. 23.55
Avaintekijät
  • Renewable Products and SAF volume growth offsetting Oil Products cyclicality
  • Historical revenue decline driven by post-2022 price normalization, not struc…
  • EBIT margin recovery expected toward mid-cycle levels from current 2.1% trough
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility in Oil Products segment
  • Regulatory and feedstock cost risks in renewable fuels
  • Low current EBIT margin indicates limited near-term pricing power
Muutos
WACC lowered slightly to reflect usable beta in CAPM calculation; other assumptions held steady given stable fundamen…
WACC
-0.5pp
wacc down
CLAUDE →
Est.
23.20
Ero
-13.5%
Conf
0.67
DCF 20.56 → Kal. 23.20
Avaintekijät
  • Renewable Products segment (HVO renewable diesel, SAF) is the structural grow…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 2.1% is severely cycle-depressed; mid-cycle normalize…
  • Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth of ~2.9% signals stabilization after the …
Suurin riski
  • Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils) can compress …
  • Regulatory risk: changes to EU RED III blending mandates, US RFS/blenders tax credit po…
  • Overcapacity risk in the HVO/renewable diesel market as new entrants (ENI, TotalEnergie…
Muutos
All four core assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. The Q1 2026 earnings recovery signal, analyst consens…
Ei muutosta
stable-waccstable-cagrstable-margin
GEMINI →
Est.
22.62
Ero
-15.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 19.72 → Kal. 22.62
Avaintekijät
  • Continued strategic shift towards renewable products, particularly sustainabl…
  • Global demand growth for sustainable energy solutions driven by environmental…
  • Investments in new production capacity and advanced technologies to expand re…
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in commodity prices for both traditional fossil feedstocks and renewable raw…
  • Execution risks associated with large capital expenditure projects and the adoption of …
  • Changes in regulatory frameworks and policy support for renewable fuels, which could im…
Muutos
Slight adjustment to WACC based on a more precise application of the beta rule and sector range constraints, while ot…
WACC
-0.5pp
minor change
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
21.34
Ero
-20.4%
Conf
0.60
DCF 17.90 → Kal. 21.34
Avaintekijät
  • Renewable diesel and SAF demand growth driven by EU and US mandates
  • Oil Products segment margin normalization after post-2022 decline
  • Capex of 4.8% of revenue supports renewable capacity expansion
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility and refining margin swings
  • Regulatory changes in renewable fuel mandates (EU, US)
  • High net debt to EBITDA of 1.95 increases financial leverage
Muutos
No material change in assumptions; same model parameters as yesterday.
Ei muutosta
no change

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V3.0%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite9.0%8.0%8.5%14.0%8.5%
WACC8.5%8.5%8.8%
-0.5pp
8.6%8.5%
-0.5pp
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)3.5%6.7%+3.2pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite8.5%10.8%+2.3pp
WACC8.5%7.2%-1.3pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 26.82 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali2.1%
EBITDA-marginaali9.5%
ROE9.8%
Nettovelka / EBITDA1.9x
P/E28.7x
EV / EBITDA13.2x
P/B2.7x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli12.10 – 36.00
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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