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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
ExxonMobil Corporation markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-06-03🇺🇸 S&Penergy
149.56 USD
52 viikon vaihteluväli
$101.73
$176.41

5 AI-mallia arvioi XOM:n mediaaniksi 128.28 USD (-14.2% suhteessa spotiin 149.56 USD, mallien yksimielisyys 1.00). Analyytikkokonsensus 169.91 USD (22 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
$128.28
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-14.2%
Yksimielisyys
1.005/5 mallia
Raaka 1.00
Hajonta
σ 0.00
Analyytikkokonsensus
$169.91(22 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia XOM. Huomioitavaa: Volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices directly impacting revenue and... AI-konsensusarvio 128.28 14.2% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (1.00). Analyytikkokonsensus: 169.91 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokXOMExxonMobil …149.6spot169.9analysts123134144154165175
Pessimistinen (min)
$110.44
-26.2%
Perus (mediaani)
$128.28
-14.2%
Optimistinen (max)
$110.44
-26.2%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:128.28→128.28(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.3pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold

Mallien erittely

CLAUDE →ADJ
Est.
128.28
Ero
-14.2%
Conf
0.68
DCF 110.44 → Kal. 128.28
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is commodity-cycle-driven (post-2022 oil pri…
  • Forward EPS of $10.64 vs trailing $5.94 implies significant earnings recovery…
  • Permian Basin ramp-up and Guyana production growth provide volume-driven reve…
Suurin riski
  • Oil price volatility remains the dominant earnings driver; a sustained decline in Brent…
  • Analyst 1-year EPS growth estimate of -43.4% signals near-term earnings headwinds; if t…
  • Energy transition risk: accelerating EV adoption and policy-driven demand destruction c…
Muutos
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model (2026-06-02). New headlines referencing Perm…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
128.28
Ero
-14.2%
Conf
0.55
DCF 110.44 → Kal. 128.28
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline of -6.7% CAGR (2022-2025) driven by post-2022 oil …
  • Forward revenue growth anchored at 2.6% analyst consensus for next year, refl…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 10.4% is below mid-cycle for integrated energy; targe…
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility (crude oil, natural gas) can significantly impact revenue an…
  • Geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-Iran conflict) could disrupt supply or demand
  • Transition to lower-carbon energy may require large capex with uncertain returns
Muutos
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC, and terminal growth remain…
Ei muutosta
no change
GEMINI →ADJ
Est.
128.28
Ero
-14.2%
Conf
0.80
DCF 110.44 → Kal. 128.28
Avaintekijät
  • Global demand for crude oil and natural gas, influenced by economic growth an…
  • Success and scaling of new lower-emission business opportunities (e.g., carbo…
  • Operational efficiency improvements and cost management across all segments, …
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices directly impacting revenue and profitabi…
  • Regulatory changes and environmental policies affecting fossil fuel production and new …
  • Execution risks associated with developing and commercializing lower-emission technolog…
Muutos
Slight increase in 5-year revenue CAGR reflecting updated near-term analyst estimates, while other key valuation assu…
CAGR
+0.3pp
slight change
GPT →ADJ
Est.
128.28
Ero
-14.2%
Conf
0.60
DCF 110.44 → Kal. 128.28
Avaintekijät
  • Focus on lower-emission business opportunities
  • Strategic investments in carbon capture and hydrogen
  • Potential recovery in global oil demand
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in crude oil prices
  • Regulatory changes affecting fossil fuel operations
  • Geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains
Muutos
No significant changes in assumptions from yesterday.
Ei edellistä dataa
stableno change
GROK →ADJ
Est.
128.28
Ero
-14.2%
Conf
0.55
DCF 110.44 → Kal. 128.28
Avaintekijät
  • Trailing EBIT margin 10.4% provides base; modest expansion to steady-state 11…
  • Historical revenue CAGR -6.7% reflects post-2022 price normalization; forward…
  • Low beta 0.18 justifies WACC at lower end of energy sector range (midpoint 10%)
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility remains primary driver of revenue and margins
  • Regulatory and transition risks around carbon policy and Scope 3 emissions
  • Execution risk on lower-emission investments (CCS, hydrogen, lithium) with uncertain ne…
Muutos
No material change to core assumptions; anchored on same trailing margins and low-beta WACC calibration.
Ei edellistä dataa
no changedata refresh

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V2.0%2.0%2.8%
+0.3pp
3.0%2.5%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite12.0%12.0%11.0%12.0%11.0%
WACC9.0%10.0%8.5%8.8%9.5%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)2.5%8.9%+6.4pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite12.0%19.2%+7.2pp
WACC9.0%6.6%-2.4pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan $149.56 ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali10.4%
EBITDA-marginaali17.2%
ROE9.8%
Nettovelka / EBITDA0.7x
P/E24.5x
EV / EBITDA11.8x
P/B2.4x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Spring, Texas.
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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