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Tekoälymallien arviot osakkeelle
Neste Oyj markkinahintaan verrattuna

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Suurin erimielisyys #3
28.36 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
8.84 €
31.01 €

5 AI-mallia arvioi NESTE:n mediaaniksi 22.92 € (-19.2% suhteessa spotiin 28.36 €, mallien yksimielisyys 0.74). Analyytikkokonsensus 28.43 € (19 analyytikkoa). Kokeellinen vertailu — ei sijoitusneuvontaa.

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
22.92 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-19.2%
Yksimielisyys
0.745/5 mallia
Raaka 0.65
Hajonta
σ 0.12
Analyytikkokonsensus
28.43 €(19 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
4 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia NESTE. Huomioitavaa: Regulatory changes in biofuel blending mandates in EU and US AI-konsensusarvio 22.92 19.2% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.74). Analyytikkokonsensus: 28.43 (AI -19.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNESTENeste Oyj28.4spot28.4analysts20.822.724.626.628.530.4
Pessimistinen (min)
18.83 €
-33.6%
Perus (mediaani)
22.92 €
-19.2%
Optimistinen (max)
29.97 €
5.7%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:22.49→22.92(+1.9%)
MARG
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
stable×2no-changestable-wacc

Mallien erittely

GPT →
Est.
29.51
Ero
+4.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 29.97 → Kal. 29.51
Avaintekijät
  • Investment in renewable diesel and aviation fuel markets
  • Transition towards sustainable energy solutions
  • Potential for margin improvements through operational enhancements
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in commodity prices affecting input costs
  • Regulatory changes impacting fuel standards
  • Competitive pressures in the renewable energy sector
Muutos
No significant changes in the assumptions since the previous assessment.
Ei edellistä dataa
energyNeste
GEMINI →
Est.
23.51
Ero
-17.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 21.41 → Kal. 23.51
Avaintekijät
  • Continued expansion and market penetration of renewable diesel and sustainabl…
  • Normalization of commodity prices and their impact on traditional oil products.
  • Operational efficiency improvements to significantly raise EBIT margins from …
Suurin riski
  • Volatility in crude oil and refined product prices impacting profitability.
  • Intense competition in the rapidly evolving renewable fuels market.
  • Regulatory shifts or changes in government subsidies for renewable energy.
Muutos
Minor adjustment to the target EBIT margin, reflecting a slightly more optimistic view on the company's ability to no…
MARG
+0.5pp
assumption change
GROK →
Est.
22.92
Ero
-19.2%
Conf
0.55
DCF 20.56 → Kal. 22.92
Avaintekijät
  • Renewable Products and SAF volume growth offsetting oil product cyclicality
  • Margin recovery from 2.1% trailing EBIT toward normalized mid-cycle levels
  • Low beta 0.59 supports below-sector-midpoint WACC
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility in Oil Products segment
  • Policy and feedstock cost uncertainty for renewables
  • Historical revenue CAGR -9.6% reflects price normalization not volume trend
Muutos
No material changes to assumptions since yesterday.
Ei edellistä dataa
stable
CLAUDE →
Est.
22.36
Ero
-21.2%
Conf
0.68
DCF 19.76 → Kal. 22.36
Avaintekijät
  • Q1 2026 earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and meaningful…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -9.6% is heavily distorted by post-2022 energy com…
  • Renewable Products segment (renewable diesel, SAF) is the structural growth e…
Suurin riski
  • Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils) can compress …
  • Regulatory risk: changes to EU RED III blending mandates, US Renewable Fuel Standard po…
  • Overcapacity risk in the renewable diesel market as competitors have added significant …
Muutos
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model. No new primary source information has eme…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-waccstable-cagr
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
21.71
Ero
-23.4%
Conf
0.70
DCF 18.83 → Kal. 21.71
Avaintekijät
  • Renewable diesel and SAF demand growth supported by EU and US mandates
  • Expansion of renewable product capacity and feedstock flexibility
  • Oil Products segment margin normalization from 2024-2025 trough
Suurin riski
  • Regulatory changes in biofuel blending mandates in EU and US
  • Feedstock cost volatility and competition for waste oils
  • Cyclicality in oil refining margins impacting Oil Products segment
Muutos
No material change in assumptions versus yesterday's model. Spot price unchanged at 28.36 EUR, and no new fundamental…
Ei muutosta
no changestable

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V3.0%4.0%3.5%4.0%3.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite9.0%8.0%8.5%
+0.5pp
12.0%9.0%
WACC8.8%9.3%8.2%8.7%8.5%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Mitä markkinahinta edellyttäisi?

OletusAI-konsensusMarkkinahinta implikoi
Liikevaihdon CAGR (5v)3.5%7.0%+3.5pp
EBIT-marginaalitavoite9.0%11.8%+2.8pp
WACC8.7%7.2%-1.4pp
Perustuu spot-hintaan 28.36 € ja raakaan DCF-malliin (ilman kattoja ja kalibrointia).

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali2.1%
EBITDA-marginaali9.5%
ROE9.8%
Nettovelka / EBITDA1.9x
P/E30.4x
EV / EBITDA13.9x
P/B2.8x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –
Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was
Lähde: Yahoo Finance

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