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NESTENeste Oyj

📅 2026-04-03🇫🇮 OMXHenergy
27.18 EUR
52 viikon vaihteluväli
6.79 €
30.40 €

AI-konsensus

Mallin arvio
18.16 €
Sis. 30 % analyytikkoankkurointi
Ero
-33.2%
Yksimielisyys
0.745/5 mallia
Hajonta
σ 0.12
Analyytikkokonsensus
25.22 €(19 analyytikkoa)
AI-yhteenveto
5 viidestä AI-mallia on negatiivisia NESTE. Huomioitavaa: Volatile commodity prices for both feedstocks (e.g., waste fats, oils) and tr... AI-konsensusarvio 18.16 33.2% alle nykyhinnan. Mallien yksimielisyys on korkea (0.74). Analyytikkokonsensus: 25.22 (AI -28.0%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNESTENeste Oyj27.2spot25.2analysts17.119.321.623.826.028.3
Pessimistinen (min)
15.13 €
-44.3%
Perus (mediaani)
18.16 €
-33.2%
Optimistinen (max)
23.63 €
-13.0%

Arvion kehitys AI-mallien arviot ja osakkeen hinta ajan yli

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Mikä muuttui tänään

Konsensusarvio:18.16→18.16(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG
+0.5pp(2 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Mallien erittely
GPT
Est.
24.11
Ero
-11.3%
Conf
0.60
DCF 23.63 → Kal. 24.11
Avaintekijät
  • Investment in renewable diesel and SAF transition
  • Market expansion in Nordic and European regions
  • Stable oil product demand but potential pricing volatility
Suurin riski
  • Dependence on commodity pricing fluctuations
  • Regulatory changes in environmental policies
  • Competition in renewable energy sector
Muutos
Assumptions have been maintained based on the company's outlook and recent data.
Ei edellistä dataa
valuationassumptions
DEEPSEEK
Est.
20.09
Ero
-26.1%
Conf
0.65
DCF 17.89 → Kal. 20.09
Avaintekijät
  • Historical revenue decline (-9.6% CAGR 2022-2025) driven by commodity price n…
  • Company is a leader in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), …
  • Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of -11% for next year, in…
Suurin riski
  • Commodity price volatility in both feedstock (e.g., palm oil) and output fuels directly…
  • Regulatory risks surrounding biofuels mandates, sustainability criteria, and palm oil s…
  • Execution risk in scaling up renewable fuel production capacity and maintaining technol…
Muutos
Model assumptions updated with slight increase in EBIT margin target to 10% to reflect potential for margin recovery,…
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
margin adjustmentstable outlook
CLAUDE⚖
Est.
18.16
Ero
-33.2%
Conf
0.52
DCF 15.13 → Kal. 18.16
Avaintekijät
  • Neste is a global leader in renewable diesel (HVO) and sustainable aviation f…
  • Revenue has declined sharply from EUR 25.7B (2022) to EUR 19.0B (2025) primar…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 2.1% is severely cycle-depressed; a normalized mid-cy…
Suurin riski
  • Prolonged weakness in renewable diesel margins (LCFS credit prices, HVO oversupply from…
  • Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, palm oil, tallow) and supply chain integri…
  • High leverage (net debt/EBITDA 3.4x) leaves limited buffer if earnings recovery is slow…
Muutos
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's first-valid run; all four key inputs (WACC 8.9%, revenue CAGR 2%, EBIT mar…
Ei muutosta
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
GEMINI⚖
Est.
18.16
Ero
-33.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 15.13 → Kal. 18.16
Avaintekijät
  • Neste's strategic focus and investments in renewable diesel and sustainable a…
  • Global demand trends for sustainable fuels and the supportive regulatory envi…
  • Fluctuations in crude oil and renewable feedstock prices impacting both reven…
Suurin riski
  • Volatile commodity prices for both feedstocks (e.g., waste fats, oils) and traditional …
  • Potential for adverse changes in biofuel mandates, carbon pricing, or other environment…
  • Intense competition in the rapidly evolving renewable fuels market from both establishe…
Muutos
Revenue CAGR slightly reduced to reflect current negative trends and a more conservative outlook for the transition p…
CAGR
-1.0pp
MARG
+0.5pp
revenue cagr adjustedebit margin adjusted
GROK⚖
Est.
18.16
Ero
-33.2%
Conf
0.60
DCF 15.13 → Kal. 18.16
Avaintekijät
  • Focus on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel as growth areas in en…
  • Historical revenue decline likely due to commodity price normalization post-2…
  • Expected stabilization in revenue with modest growth from renewable product s…
Suurin riski
  • Exposure to volatile commodity prices impacting revenue and margins.
  • Regulatory changes in renewable fuel mandates could affect demand.
  • Geopolitical tensions in key markets may disrupt supply chains.
Muutos
No significant changes in assumptions since yesterday's model run.
Ei muutosta
stable assumptionsminor update

Arvostusoletukset

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Liikevaihdon CAGR 5V2.0%2.0%
+0.5pp
2.5%
-1.0pp
4.0%3.0%
EBIT-marginaalitavoite7.0%10.0%
+0.5pp
7.5%
+0.5pp
10.0%6.0%
WACC8.9%9.3%9.3%8.8%9.2%
Terminaalikasvu2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Tunnusluvut

EBIT-marginaali2.1%
EBITDA-marginaali5.9%
ROE2.0%
Nettovelka / EBITDA3.4x
P/E145.0x
EV / EBITDA22.0x
P/B2.9x
Analyytikkojen vaihteluväli– – –

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