Model Accuracy
How well do model estimates predict actual price direction?
Backtest measures each model's own estimate (no analyst blending), scoped to the current engine version.
Model Accuracy — 1 Day
| Model | Directional Accuracy | Mean Absolute Error | Prediction Bias | Hit Rate (±5%) | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 54.9% | 31.1% | +15.1% | 19.4% | 381 |
| DeepSeek | 54.6% | 36.2% | +13.1% | 12.2% | 370 |
| Gemini | 53.7% | 33.9% | +15.4% | 17.3% | 382 |
| GPT | 52.4% | 35.9% | +8.2% | 7.9% | 382 |
| Grok | 52.2% | 34.8% | +13% | 11% | 381 |
Directional Accuracy
Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Accuracy metrics are based on short-term price movements and limited data. They do not indicate future prediction quality.
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