Model Accuracy
How well do model estimates predict actual price direction?
Backtest measures each model's own estimate (no analyst blending), scoped to the current engine version.
Model Accuracy — 5 Days
| Model | Directional Accuracy | Mean Absolute Error | Prediction Bias | Hit Rate (±5%) | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 57.5% | 30.8% | +15.3% | 21.3% | 334 |
| GPT | 53.7% | 35.4% | +8% | 7.5% | 335 |
| Grok | 53.6% | 34.6% | +12.8% | 11.7% | 334 |
| DeepSeek | 50.8% | 36% | +12.9% | 11.1% | 323 |
| Gemini | 50.4% | 34.1% | +15.8% | 14.6% | 335 |
Directional Accuracy
Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Accuracy metrics are based on short-term price movements and limited data. They do not indicate future prediction quality.
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