Model Accuracy
How well do model estimates predict actual price direction?
Backtest measures each model's own estimate (no analyst blending), scoped to the current engine version.
Model Accuracy — 5 Days
| Model | Directional Accuracy | Mean Absolute Error | Prediction Bias | Hit Rate (±5%) | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 52.7% | 28.1% | +4.5% | 21.4% | 668 |
| Grok | 52.6% | 30.5% | -2.3% | 11.9% | 664 |
| DeepSeek | 50.4% | 30.9% | -2% | 13.8% | 651 |
| GPT | 50.2% | 31.9% | -3.8% | 10% | 669 |
| Gemini | 49.2% | 30.4% | +4.2% | 13% | 664 |
Directional Accuracy
Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Accuracy metrics are based on short-term price movements and limited data. They do not indicate future prediction quality.
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