Model Accuracy
How well do model estimates predict actual price direction?
Backtest measures each model's own estimate (no analyst blending), scoped to the current engine version.
Model Accuracy — 1 Day
| Model | Directional Accuracy | Mean Absolute Error | Prediction Bias | Hit Rate (±5%) | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 57.4% | 32.7% | +14.9% | 18.7% | 155 |
| DeepSeek | 56.2% | 34.9% | +9% | 14.6% | 144 |
| Gemini | 55.1% | 34.6% | +15.3% | 18.6% | 156 |
| GPT | 54.5% | 36% | +8.4% | 7.1% | 156 |
| Grok | 54.2% | 33.1% | +11.7% | 10.3% | 155 |
Directional Accuracy
Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Accuracy metrics are based on short-term price movements and limited data. They do not indicate future prediction quality.
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