As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate AAPL median target $173.15 (-49.4% vs spot $342.00, model agreement 0.77). Analyst consensus $329.38 (39 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$173.15
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-49.4%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.77
Dispersion
σ 9.7%
Analyst consensus
$329.38(39 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$220.02
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on AAPL.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AAPL moved from $173.15 to $173.15 (+0.0%); median WACC 9.5% → 9.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 9.7% → 9.7%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Multi-year hardware refresh cycle driven by Apple Intelligence integration ac…
High-margin Services segment expansion providing structural tailwinds to over…
Strong installed base retention and ecosystem monetization across active devi…
Top Risk
Regulatory and antitrust pressures surrounding App Store fees and search revenue sharin…
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks in East Asian manufacturing hubs.
Increased R&D capital expenditure requirements to maintain leadership in generative AI …
Delta
Valuation assumptions remain stable day-over-day with steady margin and growth projections.
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.0%
5.5%
9.0%
4.5%
-0.5pp
8.0%
EBIT Margin Target
30.0%
31.5%
30.0%
30.5%
+0.5pp
30.0%
WACC
9.9%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.9%
Terminal Growth
2.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
2.5%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
8.0%
19.1%
+11.1pp
WACC
9.5%
5.9%
-3.6pp
Based on spot price $342.00 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin28.5%
EBITDA Margin36.0%
ROE174.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing38.7x
EV / EBITDA29.8x
P/B46.5x
Analyst Range215.00 – 405.00
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allows customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and A
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Regulatory and antitrust pressures surrounding App Store fees and search reve...
AI consensus estimate 173.15 49.4% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.77).
Analyst consensus: 329.38 (AI -47.4%).
Bear Case (min)
$146.27
-57.2%
Base Case (median)
$173.15
-49.4%
Bull Case (max)
$196.83
-42.4%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)