314.58 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$225.95
$344.57
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate AAPL median target $170.82 (-45.7% vs spot $314.58, model agreement 0.82). Analyst consensus $324.45 (39 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$170.82
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-45.7%
Agreement
0.825/5 models
Raw 0.82
Dispersion
σ 7.1%
Analyst consensus
$324.45(39 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$216.91
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on AAPL. Key concern: Increasing global regulatory and antitrust scrutiny, particularly targeting A... AI consensus estimate 170.82 45.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 324.45 (AI -47.4%).Bear Case (min)
$153.23
-51.3%
Base Case (median)
$170.82
-45.7%
Bull Case (max)
$183.82
-41.6%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:170.82→170.82(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(1 ↑)
stable×3no-changestable-assumptions
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AAPL moved from $182.12 to $170.82 (-6.2%); median WACC 10.0% → 9.9% (-0.10 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.7% → 7.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $182.12 | $170.82 | -6.2% |
| Median WACC | 10.00% | 9.90% | -0.10 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 8.0% | 8.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 30.0% | 30.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 10.7% | 7.1% | -3.55 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 183.82 → Cal. 226.01
Key Drivers
- Expansion of the high-margin Services segment, including App Store, iCloud, a…
- Integration of Apple Intelligence features across the hardware lineup, potent…
- Strong ecosystem stickiness and high customer retention rates supporting cons…
Top Risk
- Increasing global regulatory and antitrust scrutiny, particularly targeting App Store f…
- Geopolitical and supply chain concentration risks, especially regarding manufacturing i…
- Potential rise in component costs, such as memory and display panels, which could press…
Delta
No change
stableno change
DCF 173.28 → Cal. 218.63
Key Drivers
- Services segment (App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, advertising) con…
- Analyst consensus projects 16.4% revenue growth in the next 12 months and 28.…
- Apple Intelligence (on-device AI) represents a meaningful catalyst for iPhone…
Top Risk
- Historical revenue CAGR of only 1.8% (2022-2025) reflects genuine maturation of the iPh…
- Regulatory pressure across EU, US, and other jurisdictions on App Store practices could…
- Geopolitical risk: significant manufacturing concentration in China and China revenue e…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
DCF 170.82 → Cal. 216.91
Key Drivers
- Historical 3-year revenue CAGR was only ~1.8%, but current TTM revenue (~$466…
- Trailing EBIT margin is ~28.5%; continued services mix shift, operating lever…
- Beta of ~1.09, a 4.5% risk-free rate, and a 5.0% equity risk premium imply a …
Top Risk
- iPhone revenue concentration and lengthening replacement cycles could limit device-led …
- Regulatory and antitrust actions, including App Store fee/commission changes, may press…
- Memory chip/component cost inflation and AI infrastructure spending could compress hard…
Delta
No change
stableno change
DCF 153.45 → Cal. 204.75
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is already strong at 28.5%, so the steady-state target o…
- Historical revenue CAGR is low at 1.8%, but Apple’s installed base, services …
- Beta of 1.086 and the provided macro context imply a CAPM cost of equity near…
Top Risk
- Hardware demand can remain cyclical and tied to replacement cycles, especially for iPho…
- Services growth may face platform, regulatory, or commission pressure over time.
- High absolute valuation multiples leave limited room for execution misses.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
fresh baselineappletechnology
DCF 153.23 → Cal. 204.59
Key Drivers
- Services and recurring revenue mix driving margin expansion
- Historical revenue CAGR of 1.8% with forward 1y growth estimate 16.4%
- Trailing EBIT margin 28.5% with scale efficiencies in hardware and software
Top Risk
- Regulatory pressure on App Store commissions in EU
- Hardware cyclicality and China exposure
- Competition in AI and wearables from peers
Delta
No change
stablegrowth anchor
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% +0.5pp | 6.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 31.0% +0.5pp | 30.0% |
| WACC | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 8.0% | 18.9% | +10.9pp |
| WACC | 9.9% | 6.2% | -3.7pp |
Based on spot price $314.58 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin28.5%
EBITDA Margin36.0%
ROE174.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing35.6x
EV / EBITDA27.5x
P/B42.7x
Analyst Range215.00 – 400.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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