← Back to dashboard

AAPLApple Inc.

📅 2026-04-03🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
255.92 USD
52-Week Range
$169.21
$288.62

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$222.78
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-12.9%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$295.07(40 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on AAPL. Key concern: Potential saturation in premium smartphone and hardware markets could limit r... AI consensus estimate 222.78 12.9% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 295.07 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAAPLApple Inc.255.9spot295.1analysts214232250268286304
Bear Case (min)
$191.80
-25.1%
Base Case (median)
$222.78
-12.9%
Bull Case (max)
$191.80
-25.1%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:222.78→222.78(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(3 ↑)
MARG
+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
WACC
+0.1pp(1 ↑)
stable-assumptions×2no-changeday-over-day-hold
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE⚖
Est.
222.78
Gap
-12.9%
Conf
0.73
DCF 191.80 → Cal. 222.78
Key Drivers
  • Services segment (App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, advertising) con…
  • Analyst consensus 1-year revenue growth of 15.7% and EPS growth of 18.3% sign…
  • Apple Intelligence / Siri AI integration into iOS ecosystem could accelerate …
Top Risk
  • Geopolitical risk: US-China tensions and tariff escalation could disrupt iPhone manufac…
  • iPhone concentration: iPhone remains ~50%+ of total revenue; any demand shortfall, comp…
  • Regulatory risk: App Store antitrust scrutiny in the EU (Digital Markets Act) and US co…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model (2026-04-02). No new material primary-source data from allowed sou…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DEEPSEEK⚖
Est.
222.78
Gap
-12.9%
Conf
0.75
DCF 191.80 → Cal. 222.78
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR (2022-2025) of 1.8% provides a low base, but analyst …
  • Strong trailing EBIT margin of 30.5% demonstrates pricing power and operation…
  • Services and subscription segment growth provides higher-margin, recurring re…
Top Risk
  • High dependence on iPhone sales, which face market saturation and intense competition i…
  • Regulatory scrutiny on App Store practices and potential antitrust actions across multi…
  • Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to supply chains in Asia, could disrupt man…
Delta
Maintaining consistent assumptions with yesterday's model, with revenue growth increased slightly to reflect analyst …
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
-0.5pp
stable-assumptionsminor-adjustment
GEMINI⚖
Est.
222.78
Gap
-12.9%
Conf
0.80
DCF 191.80 → Cal. 222.78
Key Drivers
  • Continued innovation in core product lines, particularly with potential new o…
  • Sustained growth and expansion of the high-margin Services segment.
  • Strong global brand loyalty and robust ecosystem driving recurring revenue.
Top Risk
  • Intense competition across all product and service categories, particularly in smartpho…
  • Increasing regulatory scrutiny regarding App Store policies and market dominance.
  • Potential for slower global consumer spending impacting hardware sales.
Delta
An upward adjustment in the 5-year revenue CAGR reflects the strong 1-year analyst growth estimate and potential for …
CAGR
+1.5pp
revenue cagr increased
GPT⚖
Est.
222.78
Gap
-12.9%
Conf
0.70
DCF 191.80 → Cal. 222.78
Key Drivers
  • Strong brand loyalty and ecosystem
  • Expansion in subscription-based services
  • Continuous product innovation
Top Risk
  • Increased competition in the smartphone market
  • Supply chain disruptions
  • Regulatory scrutiny on data privacy
Delta
No significant changes in assumptions since yesterday's assessment.
No previous data
stableconsistent
GROK⚖
Est.
222.78
Gap
-12.9%
Conf
0.85
DCF 191.80 → Cal. 222.78
Key Drivers
  • Strong historical EBIT margin of 30.5% expected to expand to 34.5% due to inc…
  • Revenue growth projected to significantly outpace historical 1.8% CAGR, drive…
  • Exceptional ROE of 159.7% underscores superior capital efficiency, supporting…
Top Risk
  • Potential saturation in premium smartphone and hardware markets could limit revenue gro…
  • Intensifying competition in AI, cloud, and subscription services may pressure margins o…
  • Geopolitical risks, including U.S.-China trade tensions, could disrupt supply chains or…
Delta
Minor updates to assumptions based on reaffirmed growth outlook and recent market context; revenue CAGR slightly incr…
CAGR
+0.4pp
MARG
+0.5pp
WACC
+0.1pp
minor updategrowth outlook

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y8.0%6.0%
+0.5pp
12.5%
+1.5pp
6.0%10.2%
+0.4pp
EBIT Margin Target32.0%29.0%
-0.5pp
30.5%34.0%34.5%
+0.5pp
WACC9.4%9.8%11.0%9.5%10.9%
+0.1pp
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin30.5%
EBITDA Margin35.1%
ROE159.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing31.9x
EV / EBITDA24.8x
P/B42.7x
Analyst Range– – –

Recent News

Tech stocks today: Tesla stock falls as tech stocks rebound, AI industry leaks highlight cybersecurity risks2026-03-13
The bull market is still strong thanks to these 'dual tailwinds'2026-04-02
Apple At 50 Weighs AI Partnerships Satellite Ties And Succession2026-04-03
Early Apple stock investors now earn a 5.2 percent dividend yield2026-04-03
Subscribe to Email UpdatesFree · No spam · Unsubscribe anytime · Privacy Policy
AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy