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AI model estimates for
Apple Inc. vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
304.99 USD
52-Week Range
$193.46
$305.54

5 AI models estimate AAPL median target $233.03 (-23.6% vs spot $304.99, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $308.65 (43 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$233.03
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-23.6%
Agreement
1.004/5 models ⚠
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$308.65(43 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on AAPL. Key concern: Intensifying competition in the global smartphone and technology markets. AI consensus estimate 233.03 23.6% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 308.65 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAAPLApple Inc.305.0spot308.6analysts224243261280299318
Bear Case (min)
$200.62
-34.2%
Base Case (median)
$233.03
-23.6%
Bull Case (max)
$200.62
-34.2%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:233.03→233.03(+0.0%)
WACC
+0.2pp(1 ↑)
unavailable yesterdaystableoptimistic

Model Breakdown

DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
233.03
Gap
-23.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 200.62 → Cal. 233.03
Key Drivers
  • Services segment (App Store, Apple Music, iCloud) continues to grow faster th…
  • iPhone 17 cycle in China faces discounting pressure, testing ecosystem loyalt…
  • Apple Vision Pro and wearables represent new product categories with potentia…
Top Risk
  • Regulatory scrutiny on App Store practices in EU and US could pressure services margins
  • China revenue exposure creates geopolitical and competitive risk (local rivals like Hua…
  • Mature smartphone market limits unit growth; reliance on price mix and services for rev…
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR, margin target, WACC, and terminal growth rema…
No previous data
no change
GEMINI →ADJ
Est.
233.03
Gap
-23.6%
Conf
0.80
DCF 200.62 → Cal. 233.03
Key Drivers
  • Continued expansion and strong performance of the high-margin Services segment.
  • Anticipated growth from new product categories and potential AI integration.
  • Global brand strength and customer loyalty driving consistent product demand.
Top Risk
  • Intensifying competition in the global smartphone and technology markets.
  • Potential for regulatory scrutiny impacting App Store policies and business practices (…
  • Reliance on global supply chains, susceptible to geopolitical and logistical disruptions.
Delta
Yesterday's model output was unavailable due to a server error. Cannot compare assumptions.
No previous data
unavailable yesterday
GPT →ADJ
Est.
233.03
Gap
-23.6%
Conf
0.75
DCF 200.62 → Cal. 233.03
Key Drivers
  • Continuous innovation in hardware and software products
  • Growth in subscription services driving recurring revenue
  • Strong brand loyalty enhancing customer retention
Top Risk
  • Increased competition in the technology sector
  • Potential supply chain disruptions impacting production
  • Market saturation in core product lines
Delta
Valuation assumptions remain stable with a continued focus on revenue growth due to subscription services.
No previous data
stableoptimistic
GROK →ADJ
Est.
233.03
Gap
-23.6%
Conf
0.65
DCF 200.62 → Cal. 233.03
Key Drivers
  • Services mix shift continues to support margins above hardware average
  • 1-year analyst revenue growth anchor of 16.6% moderates to 7% long-term CAGR
  • Beta 1.065 and low net debt support WACC near 10%
Top Risk
  • China iPhone demand softness and potential margin pressure from discounts
  • Hardware cyclicality and slower upgrade cycles in mature smartphone market
  • Regulatory and geopolitical exposure in key supply chain regions
Delta
Assumptions held steady versus prior day with minor WACC adjustment for updated beta.
WACC
+0.2pp
minor revision
CLAUDE →INVALID
Est.
304.99
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y5.0%13.0%6.0%7.0%
EBIT Margin Target31.0%30.0%32.0%30.0%
WACC9.5%10.8%9.5%10.0%
+0.2pp
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)6.5%18.4%+11.8pp
WACC9.8%5.9%-3.9pp
Based on spot price $304.99 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin29.5%
EBITDA Margin35.4%
ROE166.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing36.5x
EV / EBITDA28.1x
P/B42.0x
Analyst Range– – –
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit ca
Source: Yahoo Finance

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