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Gemini

Google
· 2026-05-22
Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash. Shows high CAGR variance and distinctive valuation perspectives.
Gemini is a moderate model with an average valuation gap of -0.6%. Moderate daily volatility (3.20%/day). High validity rate (96.3%).

Model Positioning

Calibration score vs estimate consistency
Calibrated & ConsistentConsistent but UncalibratedCalibrated but VolatileLow ScoresCalibrationConsistencyGPTCLAUDEGEMINIDEEPSEEKGROK
Compare:GPTClaudeDeepSeekGrok

Key Metrics

-0.6%
Avg Gap
57/100
Calibration
40%
Correction Rate
39%
Positive Bias %
Responsive
Volatility
59
Days Tracked

Bias History

Model bias over time vs other models

Prediction Accuracy

Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Directional Accuracy
46.6%
Mean Absolute Error
18.9%
Prediction Bias
-0.7%
Hit Rate (±5%)
17.4%
v6v70%25%50%75%100%3.3.17.3.31.3.14.4.28.4.12.5.21.5.DeepSeekClaudeGeminiGrokGPT
N = 1284 · 1 Day

Current Estimates

Largest Positive Gap
+43.6%
+40.1%
+30.0%
+11.4%
+7.1%
Largest Negative Gap
-26.8%
-25.6%
-23.6%
-18.2%
-17.1%

Assumption Profile

9.0%
σ = 10.55
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.5%
σ = 1.74
WACC
2.00%
σ = 0.05
Terminal Growth
23.7%
EBIT Margin Target

Validity

96.3%
1307 / 1357 validity rate

Cost & Performance

Avg Latency: 17.9s
Cost per Run: $0.0104
Total Cost: $14.07
~5981 + 657 tokens

Calibration Detail

57
/100
Correction Rate: 39.8%
Uncapped Deviation:
Total Valuations: 1307
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