259.10 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$154.80
$269.43
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate JNJ median target $219.71 (-15.2% vs spot $259.10, model agreement 0.77). Analyst consensus $258.59 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$219.71
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-15.2%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.68
Dispersion
σ 10.0%
Analyst consensus
$258.59(22 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on JNJ. Key concern: Intense regulatory scrutiny and compliance requirements inherent in the healt... AI consensus estimate 219.71 15.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.77). Analyst consensus: 258.59 (AI -15.0%).Bear Case (min)
$168.70
-34.9%
Base Case (median)
$219.71
-15.2%
Bull Case (max)
$261.91
1.1%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:209.11→219.71(+5.1%)
CAGR+1.0pp(2 ↑)
MARG+1.0pp(2 ↑)
no-assumption-changespot-price-driftpre-earnings-hold
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for JNJ moved from $210.48 to $219.71 (+4.4%); median WACC 8.5% → 8.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 3.5% → 10.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $210.48 | $219.71 | +4.4% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 8.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.6% | 6.0% | +0.40 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 27.0% | 27.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 3.5% | 10.0% | +6.47 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 261.91 → Cal. 260.92
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 5.6% (2022–2025) anchors the 5-year forward CAGR a…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 26.6% is robust for a diversified healthcare company;…
- Low beta (0.235) is outside the CAPM-usable range (0.6–1.4), triggering secto…
Top Risk
- Patent cliff risk in Innovative Medicine segment — key immunology and oncology drugs fa…
- Ongoing talc litigation liability remains a material overhang; settlement outcomes or a…
- Analyst 1-year earnings growth estimate of -52.9% raises questions about the magnitude …
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changespot-price-driftpre-earnings-hold
DCF 204.37 → Cal. 220.63
Key Drivers
- Diversified product portfolio across Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments…
- Strong market position as a leading global healthcare company with extensive …
- Analyst 1-year revenue growth estimate of 9.9% suggests positive near-term mo…
Top Risk
- Intense regulatory scrutiny and compliance requirements inherent in the healthcare sector.
- Potential impact of patent expirations on key pharmaceutical products.
- Competition from other large pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers.
Delta
CAGR+0.2pp
MARG+0.2pp
Minor AdjustmentStable Outlook
DCF 203.04 → Cal. 219.71
Key Drivers
- Strong pipeline of new products in Innovative Medicine
- Stable demand in MedTech segment
- Market expansion through innovative technologies
Top Risk
- Upcoming patent expirations may affect revenue
- Potential competitive pressures in key therapeutic areas
- Regulatory challenges affecting product launches
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG+1.0pp
cagrmarginWACC
DCF 184.46 → Cal. 206.70
Key Drivers
- Historical 5.6% revenue CAGR (2022-2025) supports moderate future growth, wit…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 26.6% reflects stable profitability; steady-state tar…
- Low beta of 0.235 indicates defensive nature, justifying a below-sector-avera…
Top Risk
- Patent expirations on key drugs could pressure revenue growth and margins
- Litigation related to talc and opioid claims remains an overhang
- Healthcare regulatory changes in the US and abroad could impact pricing and reimbursement
Delta
No change
unchanged
DCF 168.70 → Cal. 195.67
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 5.6% (2022-2025) from Yahoo Finance
- Trailing EBIT margin 26.6% provides stable base for target
- Low beta 0.235 supports defensive healthcare WACC
Top Risk
- Pharma patent expirations could pressure future revenue
- Healthcare regulatory and reimbursement risks
- MedTech competition and integration execution
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% +0.2pp | 6.0% +1.0pp | 5.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 27.0% | 27.0% | 27.0% +0.2pp | 29.0% +1.0pp | 27.0% |
| WACC | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 6.0% | 10.5% | +4.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 27.0% | 38.2% | +11.2pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 7.0% | -1.5pp |
Based on spot price $259.10 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin26.6%
EBITDA Margin35.6%
ROE25.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.0x
P/E Trailing29.6x
EV / EBITDA19.1x
P/B7.7x
Analyst Range190.00 – 298.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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