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GPT

OpenAI
· 2026-08-28
OpenAI's GPT-4.1 model. Known for systematic analysis with conservative terminal growth assumptions.
Calibration and accuracy describe observed behavior, not predictive ability. Experimental research — not investment advice. Terms of Use
Highest Calibration65 score
GPT is the most conservative model — smallest average valuation gap (-3.5%). Most volatile day-to-day (4.60%/day). Wins: Highest Calibration. High validity rate (98.2%).

Model Positioning

Calibration score vs estimate consistency
Calibrated & ConsistentConsistent but UncalibratedCalibrated but VolatileLow ScoresCalibrationConsistencyGPTCLAUDEGEMINIDEEPSEEKGROK
Compare:ClaudeGeminiDeepSeekGrok

Key Metrics

-3.5%
Avg Gap
65/100
Calibration
18%
Correction Rate
37%
Positive Bias %
High Variance
Volatility
33
Days Tracked

Bias History

Model bias over time vs other models

Prediction Accuracy

Directional accuracy vs actual price changes
Directional Accuracy
50.7%
Mean Absolute Error
31.9%
Prediction Bias
-3.5%
Hit Rate (±5%)
9.7%
v8.10%25%50%75%100%14.7.21.7.28.7.4.8.12.8.19.8.27.8.DeepSeekClaudeGeminiGrokGPT
N = 764 · 1 Day

Current Estimates

Largest Positive Gap
+94.7%
+71.7%
+58.5%
+35.4%
+19.2%
Largest Negative Gap
-56.2%
-51.2%
-46.3%
-45.8%
-44.4%

Assumption Profile

6.5%
σ = 6.13
Revenue CAGR 5Y
9.3%
σ = 1.30
WACC
2.02%
σ = 0.10
Terminal Growth
24.3%
EBIT Margin Target

Validity

98.2%
2931 / 2984 validity rate

Cost & Performance

Avg Latency: 8.6s
Cost per Run: $0.0178
Total Cost: $53.07
~5418 + 425 tokens

Calibration Detail

65
/100
Correction Rate: 17.6%
Uncapped Deviation:
Total Valuations: 788
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All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. Terms of Use · Privacy Policy