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MSFTMicrosoft Corporation

📅 2026-04-03🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
373.46 USD
52-Week Range
$344.79
$555.45

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$467.25
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+25.1%
Agreement
0.805/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.08
Analyst consensus
$587.31(54 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on MSFT. Key driver: Strong growth expected in cloud services (Azure) and AI-driven solutions, sup... AI consensus estimate 467.25 25.1% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.80). Analyst consensus: 587.31 (AI -20.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMSFTMicrosoft C…373.5spot587.3analysts348401454507560613
Bear Case (min)
$383.78
2.8%
Base Case (median)
$467.25
+25.1%
Bull Case (max)
$520.51
39.4%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:488.87→467.25(-4.4%)
CAGR
-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-assumption-changestable-modelai-monetization-thesis-intact
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE
Est.
540.55
Gap
+44.7%
Conf
0.75
DCF 520.51 → Cal. 540.55
Key Drivers
  • Azure cloud platform remains the primary growth engine; analyst consensus pro…
  • Copilot AI monetization across Microsoft 365, Dynamics 365, and GitHub is acc…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 42.1% is best-in-class for large-cap tech; operating …
Top Risk
  • Elevated capex-to-revenue ratio of 21.1% reflects massive AI infrastructure investment;…
  • The 1-year earnings growth estimate of ~59.8% is unusually high and may embed optimisti…
  • Competition from AWS and Google Cloud in the hyperscaler market remains intense; Azure …
Delta
Assumptions are held flat from the prior day model (2026-04-02). New primary data from allowed sources — including th…
No change
no-assumption-changestable-modelai-monetization-thesis-intact
GPT
Est.
528.74
Gap
+41.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 503.64 → Cal. 528.74
Key Drivers
  • Strong product portfolio in cloud computing and productivity software
  • Continued demand for subscription-based services
  • Investment in AI capabilities driving growth potential
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in cloud and software markets
  • Economic downturn affecting IT spending
  • Regulatory challenges in global markets
Delta
Assumptions have been maintained based on the positive growth outlook and investment in technology advancements.
No previous data
assumption stable
GEMINI
Est.
467.25
Gap
+25.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 415.79 → Cal. 467.25
Key Drivers
  • Continued strong growth in Microsoft Azure cloud services, driven by enterpri…
  • Successful monetization and widespread adoption of AI capabilities, particula…
  • Robust and recurring demand for Microsoft 365 and other enterprise software s…
Top Risk
  • Intensifying competition in cloud computing and artificial intelligence markets from es…
  • Potential for increased regulatory scrutiny on market dominance, data privacy, and AI e…
  • Sensitivity to global economic downturns impacting enterprise IT spending and cloud ado…
Delta
A minor downward adjustment to the 5-year revenue CAGR reflects a slightly more conservative long-term growth outlook…
CAGR
-1.0pp
minor adjustment
GROK
Est.
454.77
Gap
+21.8%
Conf
0.85
DCF 397.97 → Cal. 454.77
Key Drivers
  • Strong growth expected in cloud services (Azure) and AI-driven solutions, sup…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 42.1% justifies a target of 43% due to operating leve…
  • Expansion in AI offerings (e.g., Copilot) and strategic investments in market…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in cloud computing (AWS, Google Cloud) could pressure pricing and m…
  • High capex (21.1% of revenue) for data centers and AI infrastructure may impact cash fl…
  • Regulatory scrutiny, such as the UK antitrust probe, could disrupt cloud operations or …
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, reflecting stability in financial outlook and reinforced by rec…
No change
stable assumptionsnews update
DEEPSEEK
Est.
444.84
Gap
+19.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 383.78 → Cal. 444.84
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.4% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline for fut…
  • AI leadership through Azure, Copilot, and GitHub expected to drive growth abo…
  • Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of 16.7%, supporting posi…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in cloud (AWS, Google Cloud) and AI (NVIDIA, others) could pressure…
  • High capital expenditure intensity (21.1% of revenue) required to maintain AI and cloud…
  • Regulatory scrutiny, particularly UK antitrust probe on cloud power, could impact busin…
Delta
No material changes to valuation assumptions. Maintained all parameters unchanged as company fundamentals and market …
No change
unchangedstable outlook

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y15.0%13.5%14.0%
-1.0pp
14.0%14.0%
EBIT Margin Target44.0%45.0%41.0%46.0%43.0%
WACC9.5%10.8%10.0%9.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin42.1%
EBITDA Margin57.4%
ROE34.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing23.3x
EV / EBITDA16.0x
P/B7.1x
Analyst Range– – –

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