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AI model estimates for Microsoft Corporation vs spot price
2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
505.06 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$349.20
$553.72
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate MSFT median target $549.87 (+8.9% vs spot $505.06, model agreement 0.74). Analyst consensus $569.45 (52 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$549.87
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+8.9%
Agreement
0.745/5 models
Raw 0.74
Dispersion
σ 11.5%
Analyst consensus
$569.45(52 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$555.74
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on MSFT. Key driver: Sustained expansion of Azure cloud infrastructure and AI consumption-based se... AI consensus estimate 549.87 8.9% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.74). Analyst consensus: 569.45 (AI -3.4%).Bear Case (min)
$428.54
-15.1%
Base Case (median)
$549.87
+8.9%
Bull Case (max)
$584.75
15.8%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:549.87→549.87(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableai-momentum-intact
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for MSFT moved from $523.44 to $549.87 (+5.0%); median WACC 9.5% → 9.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 14.4% → 11.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $523.44 | $549.87 | +5.0% |
| Median WACC | 9.50% | 9.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 14.0% | 14.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 47.0% | 45.0% | -2.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 14.4% | 11.5% | -2.88 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 584.75 → Cal. 580.16
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 16.1% (2023–2026: $211.9B→$331.8B) provides a stro…
- Azure and AI cloud consumption (Copilot, OpenAI partnership, AI Foundry) rema…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 46.8% is exceptional for a company at this scale; ope…
Top Risk
- Elevated capex intensity (34.9% of revenue) for AI infrastructure could compress free c…
- At $330B+ revenue, the law of large numbers makes sustaining 15%+ growth increasingly d…
- AI competition from Google (Gemini/Workspace), Amazon (Bedrock/Q), and open-source mode…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableai-momentum-intact
Key Drivers
- Sustained expansion of Azure cloud infrastructure and AI consumption-based se…
- Monetization of Microsoft 365 Copilot and AI-integrated productivity software…
- Strong operating leverage inherent in SaaS business models, offsetting near-t…
Top Risk
- Elevated capital expenditures (currently 34.9% of revenue) for AI data centers may comp…
- Increasing global regulatory scrutiny and antitrust investigations.
- Intense hyperscaler competition in public cloud and generative AI services potentially …
Delta
No change
stable outlookai infrastructure
DCF 549.87 → Cal. 555.74
Key Drivers
- Azure, AI services, and Microsoft 365 Copilot attach rates support sustained …
- Reported commercial backlog near $678B provides durable demand visibility ove…
- High recurring subscription and software mix should keep steady-state EBIT ma…
Top Risk
- AI/cloud capex intensity (~35% of revenue) could pressure free cash flow if depreciatio…
- Cloud competition may limit Azure pricing power and segment margin expansion.
- Regulatory/antitrust scrutiny across cloud licensing, AI, and platform practices remain…
Delta
No change
no material changereaffirmed assumptions
DCF 475.95 → Cal. 504.00
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 46.8% indicates a very profitable software/platform m…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 16.1% and the 1-year revenue growth estimate of 17…
- Beta of 1.10 with a 4.5% risk-free rate and 5.0% equity risk premium implies …
Top Risk
- Heavy AI and cloud infrastructure investment can keep capex elevated and pressure free …
- Competition in cloud, productivity, and AI infrastructure may limit margin expansion.
- Regulatory scrutiny could affect bundling, distribution, or commercialization in key ma…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
baselinecapm anchoredunchanged
DCF 428.54 → Cal. 470.82
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 16.1% provides base for sustained growth
- Trailing EBIT margin of 46.8% supports high steady-state target
- AI and cloud consumption driving near-term 17.7% revenue growth
Top Risk
- High capex intensity at 34.9% of revenue may pressure free cash flow
- Regulatory actions in multiple jurisdictions
- Competition in AI infrastructure and cloud services
Delta
No previous data
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 15.0% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 11.0% +0.5pp | 12.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 48.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 49.0% | 45.0% |
| WACC | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 14.0% | 14.8% | +0.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 45.0% | 47.6% | +2.6pp |
| WACC | 9.5% | 9.2% | -0.3pp |
Based on spot price $505.06 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin46.8%
EBITDA Margin58.5%
ROE30.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.3x
P/E Trailing28.0x
EV / EBITDA19.6x
P/B8.5x
Analyst Range400.00 – 870.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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