As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate MSFT median target $498.93 (-7.5% vs spot $539.44, model agreement 0.75). Analyst consensus $596.22 (53 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$498.93
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-7.5%
Agreement
0.755/5 models
Raw 0.75
Dispersion
σ 10.9%
Analyst consensus
$596.22(53 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$528.12
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are negative on MSFT.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:498.93→498.93(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for MSFT moved from $549.89 to $498.93 (-9.3%); median WACC 10.0% → 10.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.6% → 10.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
Historical revenue CAGR of 16.1% (FY2023–FY2026: $212B→$332B) provides a stro…
Azure Intelligent Cloud remains the primary growth engine; AI consumption ser…
Microsoft 365 Copilot monetization adds a high-margin software layer on top o…
Top Risk
Massive capex commitment (~34.9% of revenue, ~$116B annualized) for AI infrastructure c…
OpenAI partnership dependency and competitive pressure from Google (Gemini/GCP), Amazon…
Regulatory scrutiny in the EU and US around cloud market dominance, AI governance, and …
Delta
All four core assumptions are unchanged from yesterday (2026-10-15): revenue_cagr_5y 15%, ebit_margin_target 48%, WAC…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.0%
12.0%
15.0%
11.0%
+0.5pp
14.0%
EBIT Margin Target
48.0%
44.0%
47.0%
49.0%
-1.0pp
45.0%
WACC
10.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
Terminal Growth
3.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
14.0%
16.4%
+2.4pp
WACC
10.0%
9.1%
-0.9pp
Based on spot price $539.44 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin46.8%
EBITDA Margin58.5%
ROE30.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.3x
P/E Trailing29.9x
EV / EBITDA20.9x
P/B9.1x
Analyst Range440.00 – 870.00
Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. Its products include operating systems, server applications, business solution applications, software development tools, desktop and server management tools, and video games; and devices, such as PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other intelligent devices, and related accessories. The company's Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Microsoft 365 Commercial, Enterprise Mobility + Security, Power BI, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Microsoft 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and Windows Commercial on-premises and Office licensed on-premises. This segment also provides Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, including talent solutions, marketing solutions, subscriptions, and sales solutions; Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based applications; and on-premises ERP and CRM applications. Its Intelligent Cloud segment offers server products and cloud services; cloud and AI consumption-based services, GitHub cloud services, health and life sciences cloud services, as well as vi
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Substantial ongoing capital expenditure commitments for AI hardware and data ...
AI consensus estimate 498.93 7.5% below the current price.
Model agreement is high (0.75).
Analyst consensus: 596.22 (AI -16.3%).
Bear Case (min)
$432.77
-19.8%
Base Case (median)
$498.93
-7.5%
Bull Case (max)
$573.78
6.4%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)