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AI model estimates for
JPMorgan Chase & Co. vs spot price

2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Pfinancials
354.22 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$279.10
$366.50

As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate JPM median target $301.12 (-15.0% vs spot $354.22, model agreement 0.78). Analyst consensus $374.57 (21 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$301.12
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-15.0%
Agreement
0.785/5 models
Raw 0.78
Dispersion
σ 9.5%
Analyst consensus
$374.57(21 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$323.16
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on JPM. Key concern: Potential credit quality normalization and rising net charge-offs in a slowin... AI consensus estimate 301.12 15.0% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.78). Analyst consensus: 374.57 (AI -19.6%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokJPMJPMorgan Ch…354.2spot374.6analysts256282308335361387
Bear Case (min)
$268.63
-24.2%
Base Case (median)
$301.12
-15.0%
Bull Case (max)
$357.67
1.0%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:301.12→301.12(+0.0%)
no-assumption-changestable-fundamentalscib-activity-confirmed

What Changed (7 days)

Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for JPM moved from $310.17 to $301.12 (-2.9%); median WACC 9.5% → 9.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 11.3% → 9.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.

Metric7d ago (2026-08-21)Now (2026-08-28)Change
AI consensus estimate$310.17$301.12-2.9%
Median WACC9.50%9.50%+0.00 pp
Median terminal growth2.00%2.00%+0.00 pp
Median revenue CAGR (5y)6.0%5.5%-0.50 pp
Median EBIT margin target40.0%39.0%-1.00 pp
Model dispersion σ11.3%9.5%-1.84 pp

Model Breakdown

GPT →
Est.
357.67
Gap
+1.0%
Conf
0.58
DCF 357.67 → Cal. 362.74
Key Drivers
  • Trailing ROE of 17.6% suggests the franchise can sustain a high-teens return …
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% is strong, but a mature large-cap bank shoul…
  • Beta of 0.977 and the provided US rate/ERP context support a cost of equity a…
Top Risk
  • Net interest income and capital markets revenue are cyclical and rate-sensitive.
  • Credit losses can rise quickly in a downturn and pressure profitability.
  • Regulatory capital, liquidity, and compliance requirements can constrain returns.
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from the prior view. The model remains anchored to JPMorgan's strong profitability, near-ma…
No change
no material changebanking cyclestable profitability
CLAUDE →
Est.
321.94
Gap
-9.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 321.94 → Cal. 337.73
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) was materially elevated by net i…
  • Diversified three-segment model (Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & I…
  • Trailing ROE of 17.6% materially exceeds estimated cost of equity (~9.4%); su…
Top Risk
  • Rising bond yields and potential credit quality deterioration if the macro environment …
  • Interest rate sensitivity: net interest income could compress meaningfully if the Fed c…
  • Regulatory capital requirements (Basel III endgame and potential new GSIB surcharges) m…
Delta
Assumptions are held fully stable versus the prior day model. August 28 headlines introduce no material new fundament…
No change
no-assumption-changestable-fundamentalscib-activity-confirmed
GROK →
Est.
301.12
Gap
-15.0%
Conf
0.55
DCF 301.12 → Cal. 323.16
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR 12.5% moderated to 6% for maturing large-cap bank
  • Net interest income and fee growth supported by scale in CCB and CIB segments
  • Sustainable ROE near 17% from 17.6% trailing
Top Risk
  • Interest rate volatility impacting net interest margin
  • Regulatory and capital requirements constraining leverage
  • Credit cycle deterioration in consumer and commercial lending
Delta
No material change in assumptions from prior day
No previous data
stable
GEMINI →
Est.
299.04
Gap
-15.6%
Conf
0.85
DCF 299.04 → Cal. 321.70
Key Drivers
  • Dominant market position across consumer banking, investment banking, and ass…
  • Net interest income remains robust, supported by a stabilized interest rate e…
  • Strong capital position with high CET1 ratios supporting consistent dividend …
Top Risk
  • Potential credit quality normalization and rising net charge-offs in a slowing macroeco…
  • Regulatory headwinds, including Basel III endgame capital requirement increases, which …
  • Compression of net interest margins (NIM) if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates mo…
Delta
Core valuation assumptions remain stable as recent market updates and macroeconomic commentary do not alter the long-…
No change
stable-outlookmacro-monitoring
DEEPSEEK →
Est.
268.63
Gap
-24.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 268.63 → Cal. 300.41
Key Drivers
  • Diversified franchise across consumer, commercial, investment banking and wea…
  • Trailing ROE of about 17.6% and net income margin around 34% reflect strong p…
  • Sub-1.0 beta points to moderate systematic risk; WACC is set at 10.0%, the lo…
Top Risk
  • A broad credit cycle downturn would raise loan-loss provisions and pressure net income.
  • Interest-rate normalization or a flatter yield curve could compress net interest margin.
  • Investment banking and market-making revenues are cyclical and could fall below recent …
Delta
Assumptions unchanged versus the prior model; WACC remains at 10.0%, long-term revenue CAGR at 5.5%, EBIT margin at 4…
No change
no changeassumptions retained

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y5.0%5.5%5.5%4.5%6.0%
ROE Target16.0%16.0%15.5%17.6%17.0%
WACC9.4%10.0%9.5%9.5%9.5%
Terminal Growth2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin–%
EBITDA Margin–%
ROE17.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA–x
P/E Trailing14.8x
EV / EBITDA–x
P/B2.7x
Analyst Range305.00 – 420.00
JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a bank and financial holding company in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It operates in three segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, and Asset & Wealth Management. The company offers deposit, investment and lending products, and cash management; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit cards, payment solutions, travel services, merchant offers, lifestyle benefits, auto loans, and leases to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, and digital and telephone banking. It also provides investment banking, market-making, financing, custody, and securities products and services; corporate strategy and structure advisory, equity and debt market capital-raising, and loan origination and syndication services; cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, clearing, and research; and fund services, liquidity and trading services, and data solutions products for large corporations, financial institutions, merchants, start-ups, sm
Source: Yahoo Finance

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