387.66 USD
52-Week Range
$162.00
$408.61
5 AI models estimate GOOGL median target $402.50 (+3.8% vs spot $387.66, model agreement 0.81). Analyst consensus $428.96 (53 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$402.50
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+3.8%
Agreement
0.814/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.74
Dispersion
σ 0.08
Analyst consensus
$428.96(53 analysts)
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on GOOGL. Key driver: Continued growth in Google Services, particularly Search and YouTube advertis... AI consensus estimate 402.50 3.8% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.81). Analyst consensus: 428.96 (AI -6.2%).Bear Case (min)
$317.60
-18.1%
Base Case (median)
$402.50
+3.8%
Bull Case (max)
$443.20
14.3%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:411.46→402.50(-2.2%)
CAGR-0.5pp(1 ↓)
MARG-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no changeno yesterday datavaluation
Model Breakdown
DCF 443.20 → Cal. 438.93
Key Drivers
- Strong growth in cloud services and AI
- Robust advertising revenue performance
- Innovation in Google Services and products
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition in AI and cloud sectors
- Regulatory scrutiny and compliance challenges
- Economic fluctuations impacting ad spend
Delta
No previous data
valuationtechnologygrowth
DCF 391.15 → Cal. 402.50
Key Drivers
- Continued growth in Google Services, particularly Search and YouTube advertis…
- Expansion and increasing profitability of Google Cloud, driven by AI solution…
- Strategic investments in AI and other emerging technologies across segments.
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition in the digital advertising and cloud computing markets.
- Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions impacting business operations.
- Economic downturns leading to reduced advertising budgets.
Delta
No previous data
no yesterday data
DCF 376.71 → Cal. 392.39
Key Drivers
- Google Cloud and AI infrastructure scaling with high incremental margins
- Search and YouTube advertising resilience with 12.5% historical revenue CAGR …
- Operating leverage from 30.5% trailing EBIT margin expanding modestly at scale
Top Risk
- Antitrust and regulatory actions across core search and ad businesses
- Accelerating AI capex could pressure near-term free cash flow
- Competition from Microsoft/OpenAI in generative AI and cloud
Delta
CAGR-0.5pp
MARG-1.0pp
update
DCF 317.60 → Cal. 351.01
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022-2025) driven by Search, YouTube…
- Google Cloud segment accelerating with AI solutions (Vertex AI, Gemini) provi…
- High trailing EBIT margin of 30.5% indicates significant operating leverage a…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in the US, EU, and other jurisdictions could impact o…
- Intense competition in digital advertising from Meta, Amazon, and emerging AI search pl…
- Capital expenditure intensity (21.6% of revenue) may pressure free cash flow if growth …
Delta
No change
no change
CLAUDE →INVALID
Delta
No previous data
Valuation Assumptions
| DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 10.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 13.5% -0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 31.0% | 39.0% | 33.0% -1.0pp |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.8% | 13.3% | +0.6pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 34.2% | +1.2pp |
| WACC | 10.8% | 10.5% | -0.2pp |
Based on spot price $387.66 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin30.5%
EBITDA Margin38.2%
ROE38.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing29.3x
EV / EBITDA28.9x
P/B9.8x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-22
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