340.65 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$206.20
$408.61
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate GOOGL median target $431.21 (+26.6% vs spot $340.65, model agreement 0.77). Analyst consensus $428.07 (54 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$431.21
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+26.6%
Agreement
0.775/5 models
Raw 0.77
Dispersion
σ 9.9%
Analyst consensus
$428.07(54 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$430.27
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on GOOGL. Key driver: Strong secular growth in Google Cloud driven by enterprise AI adoption, Verte... AI consensus estimate 431.21 26.6% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.77). Analyst consensus: 428.07 (AI +0.7%).Bear Case (min)
$358.78
5.3%
Base Case (median)
$431.21
+26.6%
Bull Case (max)
$475.98
39.7%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:431.21→431.21(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG-1.0pp(1 ↓)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsconsistent-fundamentals
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for GOOGL moved from $475.98 to $431.21 (-9.4%); median WACC 10.5% → 10.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 5.2% → 9.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $475.98 | $431.21 | -9.4% |
| Median WACC | 10.50% | 10.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 13.0% | 13.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 31.0% | 30.0% | -1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 5.2% | 9.9% | +4.77 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 475.98 → Cal. 461.61
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% (2022–2025) anchors the 5-year forward CAGR …
- Google Cloud (Vertex AI, Gemini enterprise, cybersecurity, Workspace) is a st…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 28.9% with meaningful operating leverage potential as…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and antitrust pressure (DOJ search distribution case, EU DMA compliance) cou…
- AI-native search competitors (OpenAI, Perplexity) and Microsoft Bing/Copilot integratio…
- Sustained high capex (~$91B in FY2025, ~20.5% of revenue) required to remain competitiv…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsconsistent-fundamentals
DCF 451.10 → Cal. 444.19
Key Drivers
- Strong secular growth in Google Cloud driven by enterprise AI adoption, Verte…
- Resilient core advertising revenue across Google Search and YouTube, maintain…
- Substantial capital expenditures expanding next-generation AI data center inf…
Top Risk
- Increasing regulatory and antitrust pressures globally targeting search dominance and a…
- Intense capital reinvestment requirements in AI infrastructure that could temporarily c…
- Heightened competition in generative AI search and conversational assistants from well-…
Delta
No change
stable outlookai infrastructurecloud growth
Key Drivers
- Google Cloud and AI infrastructure demand broaden revenue beyond Search and a…
- Subscription services such as YouTube TV, YouTube Music/Premium, and Google O…
- Historical 2022-2025 revenue CAGR near 12.5% plus a near-term analyst revenue…
Top Risk
- Elevated AI infrastructure capex, depreciation, and energy costs could compress future …
- Regulatory and antitrust proceedings may constrain Search and advertising business prac…
- AI-driven search alternatives could erode query volume and core ad economics over time.
Delta
No change
unchangedstableAI-capex
DCF 391.75 → Cal. 402.65
Key Drivers
- Google Cloud AI and infrastructure scaling
- Advertising revenue base remains resilient
- Operating leverage from high incremental margins
Top Risk
- Antitrust and regulatory exposure
- AI capex intensity may pressure near-term margins
- Advertising cyclicality tied to macro environment
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
cagr liftwacc hold
DCF 358.78 → Cal. 379.57
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.5% is a solid starting point, but a slightly lo…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 28.9% supports a modestly higher steady-state target,…
- Beta of 1.237 with a 4.5% risk-free rate and 5.0% equity risk premium implies…
Top Risk
- AI infrastructure spending may keep capex elevated and delay margin expansion.
- Core advertising growth could normalize as the business gets larger.
- Regulatory and antitrust pressure could constrain monetization or raise operating costs.
Delta
CAGR-0.5pp
MARG-1.0pp
WACC+0.5pp
fresh viewcapm waccgrowth moderation
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 13.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 9.5% -0.5pp | 11.0% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 32.0% | 27.0% | 30.0% | 30.5% -1.0pp | 30.0% |
| WACC | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% +0.5pp | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 13.0% | 11.2% | -1.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 30.0% | 26.6% | -3.4pp |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.3% | +0.8pp |
Based on spot price $340.65 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin28.9%
EBITDA Margin38.8%
ROE58.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.7x
P/E Trailing17.1x
EV / EBITDA23.4x
P/B6.7x
Analyst Range340.00 – 515.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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