36.20 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
33.70 €
47.30 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate ELISA median target 44.90 € (+24.0% vs spot 36.20 €, model agreement 0.86). Analyst consensus 40.23 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
44.90 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+24.0%
Agreement
0.865/5 models
Raw 0.86
Dispersion
σ 5.3%
Analyst consensus
40.23 €(19 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
43.50 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ELISA. Key driver: Stable subscription revenue from core Finnish and Estonian telecom markets AI consensus estimate 44.90 24.0% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.86). Analyst consensus: 40.23 (AI +11.6%).Bear Case (min)
42.86 €
18.4%
Base Case (median)
44.90 €
+24.0%
Bull Case (max)
49.00 €
35.4%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:44.90→44.90(+0.0%)
CAGR-0.3pp(1 ↓)
telecom×3stable assumptionsassumptions held
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for ELISA moved from 44.90 € to 44.90 € (+0.0%); median WACC 7.0% → 7.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 8.3% → 5.3%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 44.90 € | 44.90 € | +0.0% |
| Median WACC | 7.00% | 7.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 21.0% | 21.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 8.3% | 5.3% | -3.02 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 49.00 → Cal. 46.37
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR is modest at 2.0%, and recent analyst revenue growth …
- Trailing EBIT margin of 20.6% already sits within the telecom steady-state ra…
- Elisa's beta of 0.428 and defensive telecom profile support a low-to-mid 6% W…
Top Risk
- Competitive pressure in Finnish telecom could cap pricing power and subscriber growth.
- High ongoing network capex can limit free cash flow conversion even if EBIT remains sta…
- Moderate leverage could make refinancing or rate pressure more relevant.
Delta
CAGR-0.3pp
baselinetelecomdefensive
DCF 47.30 → Cal. 45.18
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% (2022–2025: EUR 2,129M to EUR 2,257M) anchors…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 20.6% is solid within the telecom sector range (15–25…
- Low beta (0.43) is below the CAPM-usable range (0.6–1.4), so WACC is anchored…
Top Risk
- Near-term revenue headwinds: analyst consensus projects -0.3% revenue growth in next 12…
- High capex intensity (12.4% of revenue) for 5G and fiber network investment compresses …
- Net debt/EBITDA of 2.06x is moderate but leaves limited headroom for further leverage; …
Delta
No change
no changestable assumptionsassumptions held
DCF 44.90 → Cal. 43.50
Key Drivers
- Mature Finnish telecom market supports stable low-single-digit revenue growth…
- Software, ICT, and digital services such as Elisa IndustrIQ add a gradual gro…
- EBITDA has remained resilient despite broadly flat telecom revenue, supportin…
Top Risk
- Price competition in Finnish mobile and fixed telecom could keep revenue growth near ze…
- Sustained 5G and fiber investment could pressure free cash flow if capex consistently e…
- Regulatory decisions on spectrum, pricing, or market structure could pressure margins.
Delta
No change
no-changesteady-statetelecom
DCF 42.97 → Cal. 42.15
Key Drivers
- Stable subscription revenue from core Finnish and Estonian telecom markets
- Growth in international digital services and industrial software under Elisa …
- Consistent cash flow conversion supporting high dividend payout expectations
Top Risk
- Intense price competition in the domestic mobile and broadband segments
- Elevated capital expenditures required for 5G coverage expansion and fiber infrastructure
- Potential slowdown in corporate ICT spending due to broader macroeconomic headwinds
Delta
No change
telecomnordicstable yield
DCF 42.86 → Cal. 42.07
Key Drivers
- Stable subscription-based revenue in Finnish telecom market
- Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% (2022-2025) provides anchor
- Trailing EBIT margin of 20.6% reflects mature operations
Top Risk
- Limited revenue growth outlook with 1Y estimate near flat
- High net debt to EBITDA of 2.06 increases leverage sensitivity
- Regulatory pressure typical in telecom sector
Delta
No previous data
stableno delta
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% -0.3pp | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 21.0% | 21.0% | 20.5% | 21.5% | 20.0% |
| WACC | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 1.1% | -0.9pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 21.0% | 18.9% | -2.0pp |
| WACC | 7.0% | 7.4% | +0.4pp |
Based on spot price 36.20 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin20.6%
EBITDA Margin31.9%
ROE27.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.1x
P/E Trailing17.0x
EV / EBITDA10.2x
P/B4.3x
Analyst Range33.40 – 50.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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