35.72 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
34.48 €
55.00 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate ELISA median target 40.22 € (+12.6% vs spot 35.72 €, model agreement 0.91). Analyst consensus 42.02 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
40.22 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+12.6%
Agreement
0.915/5 models
Raw 0.87shrinkage-induced
Dispersion
σ 3.3%
Analyst consensus
42.02 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ELISA. Key driver: Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% (2022-2025: EUR 2,129M to EUR 2,257M) anchors... AI consensus estimate 40.22 12.6% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.91). Analyst consensus: 42.02 (AI -4.3%).Bear Case (min)
37.44 €
4.8%
Base Case (median)
40.22 €
+12.6%
Bull Case (max)
43.11 €
20.7%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:40.22→40.22(+0.0%)
MARG-0.4pp(1 ↓)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-5-confirmation
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for ELISA moved from 40.29 € to 40.22 € (-0.2%); median WACC 7.0% → 7.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 3.8% → 3.3%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 40.29 € | 40.22 € | -0.2% |
| Median WACC | 7.00% | 7.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 20.6% | 20.6% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 3.8% | 3.3% | -0.43 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 43.11 → Cal. 42.78
Key Drivers
- Stable revenue stream from subscriptions
- Investment in new technologies like 5G
- Strong brand presence in Finnish market
Top Risk
- High competition in the telecom sector
- Regulatory changes affecting pricing or investment
- Economic downturn impacting consumer spending
Delta
No previous data
valuationtelecom
DCF 40.18 → Cal. 40.73
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% (2022-2025: EUR 2,129M to EUR 2,257M) anchors…
- Elisa IndustrIQ B2B software segment (sedApta, camLine, CalcuQuote, Polystar,…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 20.6% is already near the top of the Nordic telecom p…
Top Risk
- Near-term revenue contraction: analyst consensus projects -1.3% revenue growth for next…
- High capital intensity (capex ~12.4% of revenue) for 5G and fiber rollout compresses fr…
- Net debt/EBITDA of ~2.0x is moderate but leaves limited headroom if EBITDA contracts; s…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-5-confirmation
DCF 39.45 → Cal. 40.22
Key Drivers
- Stable telecom subscription revenue in Finland provides predictable cash flows
- Elisa IndustrIQ software segment offers higher-margin growth potential
- 5G and fiber network investments support long-term connectivity demand
Top Risk
- Intense competition in Finnish telecom market may pressure pricing
- High capex requirements for network upgrades could constrain free cash flow
- Regulatory changes in telecom or data privacy could impact operations
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 38.46 → Cal. 39.53
Key Drivers
- Stable subscription revenue base in Finland telecom market
- Historical revenue CAGR 2.0% (2022-2025) provides anchor
- Trailing EBIT margin 20.6% reflects mature operations
Top Risk
- Analyst 1Y revenue growth estimate -1.3% signals near-term pressure
- High ongoing capex and depreciation (13.3% of revenue) constrain FCF
- Regulatory and competitive intensity in Nordic telecom
Delta
No change
no change
DCF 37.44 → Cal. 38.81
Key Drivers
- Stable and predictable revenue from core telecommunications services in Finla…
- Growth potential from diversification into ICT and digital services under the…
- Strategic investments in 5G and fiber network infrastructure to maintain comp…
Top Risk
- Intense competition and pricing pressure in the Finnish and European telecom markets.
- High capital expenditure requirements for ongoing network maintenance and upgrades.
- Potential for adverse regulatory changes impacting operations and profitability.
Delta
MARG-0.4pp
minor assumption change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 21.0% | 20.6% | 20.6% -0.4pp | 21.0% | 20.5% |
| WACC | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 1.0% | -1.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 20.6% | 18.5% | -2.1pp |
| WACC | 7.0% | 7.4% | +0.4pp |
Based on spot price 35.72 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin20.6%
EBITDA Margin31.8%
ROE27.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.0x
P/E Trailing16.7x
EV / EBITDA10.0x
P/B4.3x
Analyst Range33.40 – 53.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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