7.35 EUR
52-Week Range
3.42 €
7.54 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
6.08 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-17.3%
Agreement
0.835/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
6.62 €(21 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on NOKIA. Key concern: Intense competition from established players like Ericsson, Huawei, and Samsu... AI consensus estimate 6.08 17.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.83). Analyst consensus: 6.62 (AI -8.2%).Bear Case (min)
4.67 €
-36.4%
Base Case (median)
6.08 €
-17.3%
Bull Case (max)
6.50 €
-11.6%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:6.08→6.08(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.2pp(1 ↑)
MARG+1.0pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Model Breakdown
GPT
DCF 6.50 → Cal. 6.53
Key Drivers
- Expansion in 5G and AI technology markets
- Digital transformation driving demand for network infrastructure
- Potential for margin improvement through cost management
Top Risk
- Competitive pressure from peers in technology sector
- Economic downturn affecting telecom spending
- Dependence on supply chain stability
Delta
No previous data
valuationstability
GROK
DCF 6.03 → Cal. 6.21
Key Drivers
- Analyst consensus of 2.4% revenue growth for the next year provides a near-te…
- Focus on 5G core and cloud services expected to drive growth in mobile networ…
- EBIT margin target of 8.5% reflects expected improvement from current 3.9% th…
Top Risk
- Historical revenue decline (-5.8% CAGR) poses a challenge if turnaround strategies in 5…
- Low trailing EBIT margin (3.9%) indicates ongoing profitability pressures that may pers…
- Competitive intensity in network infrastructure and mobile networks could compress marg…
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsminor update
GEMINI
DCF 5.85 → Cal. 6.08
Key Drivers
- Global 5G network build-out and modernization cycles are expected to drive de…
- Expansion into enterprise and private networks with new AI-driven solutions c…
- Successful execution of cost efficiency programs and operational leverage fro…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from established players like Ericsson, Huawei, and Samsung in the …
- Macroeconomic slowdowns or reduced capital expenditures by major telecom operators coul…
- Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions could affect market access, supply chains,…
Delta
No previous data
no change
CLAUDE
DCF 5.66 → Cal. 5.95
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022-2025) reflects a telecom capex downcyc…
- 5G network densification, Nokia's Virgin Media O2 5G deal, and North American…
- Nvidia's multi-billion-dollar commitment to Nokia (March 2026) and broader AI…
Top Risk
- Analyst consensus 1-year EPS growth estimate of -40.8% signals near-term earnings headw…
- Revenue CAGR could disappoint if global telecom operator capex remains constrained or i…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 3.9% and trailing ROE of 3.0% highlight structural profitabilit…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DEEPSEEK
DCF 4.67 → Cal. 5.26
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue declined -5.8% CAGR (2022-2025), but analyst consensus pro…
- Recent 5G deal with Virgin Media O2 and AI partnerships may provide new reven…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 3.9% is below target; assumes operational improvement…
Top Risk
- Revenue has declined for three consecutive years (2022-2025), indicating structural hea…
- Trailing ROE is low at 3.0%, suggesting poor historical profitability.
- Competitive pressure in telecom equipment from Ericsson, Huawei, and others.
Delta
CAGR+0.2pp
MARG+1.0pp
stableminor-adjustmentgrowth-up
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 1.2% +0.2pp | 3.5% | 2.0% | 4.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 8.0% +1.0pp | 9.0% | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| WACC | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin3.9%
EBITDA Margin12.3%
ROE3.0%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.8x
P/E Trailing65.2x
EV / EBITDA16.0x
P/B2.0x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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