11.20 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
3.42 €
14.99 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate NOKIA median target 8.04 € (-28.2% vs spot 11.20 €, model agreement 0.82). Analyst consensus 10.85 € (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
8.04 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-28.2%
Agreement
0.825/5 models
Raw 0.72
Dispersion
σ 7.5%
Analyst consensus
10.85 €(22 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on NOKIA. Key concern: Intense competition in the global mobile and fixed network infrastructure mar... AI consensus estimate 8.04 28.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 10.85 (AI -25.9%).Bear Case (min)
4.89 €
-56.4%
Base Case (median)
8.04 €
-28.2%
Bull Case (max)
7.18 €
-35.9%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:7.76→8.04(+3.6%)
CAGR+1.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG+1.0pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableday-over-day-unchanged
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NOKIA moved from 7.31 € to 8.04 € (+10.0%); median WACC 8.5% → 8.6% (+0.10 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 5.0% → 7.5%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 7.31 € | 8.04 € | +10.0% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 8.60% | +0.10 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 9.0% | 9.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 5.0% | 7.5% | +2.57 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 7.18 → Cal. 8.28
Key Drivers
- Investments in 5G and cloud services expected to enhance margins.
- Recent advancements in AI-driven network solutions may expand market reach.
- Focus on sustainable growth through strategic collaborations.
Top Risk
- Ongoing competition in the technology sector may impact market share.
- Heavy reliance on European markets could expose to regulatory risks.
- Historical revenue decline could indicate challenging market conditions.
Delta
No previous data
steadyno change
DCF 7.10 → Cal. 8.22
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022-2025) reflects a severe telecom capex …
- Trailing EBIT margin of 3.9% is severely depressed relative to EBITDA margin …
- Net cash position (~€2.5B, net debt/EBITDA of -0.99x) provides meaningful fin…
Top Risk
- Revenue concentration in telecom operators (CSPs) makes Nokia highly exposed to carrier…
- Intense competition from Ericsson, Huawei, and Samsung in mobile networks limits pricin…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 3.9% leaves very little buffer; failure to execute on cost rest…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableday-over-day-unchanged
DCF 6.84 → Cal. 8.04
Key Drivers
- Strategic shift towards cloud and AI solutions, including supplying the AI da…
- Analyst consensus for positive 1-year revenue growth (2.4%) suggests a near-t…
- Strong net cash position (negative net debt of -0.99x EBITDA) provides financ…
Top Risk
- Intense competition in the global mobile and fixed network infrastructure markets from …
- Execution risk associated with new strategic initiatives and partnerships in AI data ce…
- Potential for continued pressure on traditional network equipment sales due to market s…
Delta
CAGR+1.5pp
MARG+1.0pp
growth outlook improvementmargin expansion
DCF 6.44 → Cal. 7.76
Key Drivers
- Modest recovery from historical revenue decline (-5.8% CAGR 2022-2025) via 5G…
- EBIT margin expansion from 3.9% trailing toward 7.5% through mix shift to hig…
- Low net debt (net cash position) supports stable WACC near 7.6%
Top Risk
- Persistent low EBIT margins (3.9% trailing) with limited visibility on sustained expansion
- Historical revenue contraction may continue if core network spending remains weak
- High valuation (trailing P/E 80.8x) leaves limited margin of safety
Delta
No change
no change
DCF 4.89 → Cal. 6.68
Key Drivers
- Forward 1-year revenue growth estimate of 2.4% indicates stabilization after …
- AI data center investments and 5G/6G network upgrades provide potential growt…
- Partnerships with SAP and Microsoft for cloud and AI solutions expand address…
Top Risk
- Intense competition from Huawei, Ericsson, and Samsung may limit market share gains and…
- Telecom operator capex is cyclical; a slowdown in 5G/6G deployment could dampen revenue…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 3.9% highlights execution risk in margin expansion plans
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 2.0% | 5.0% +1.5pp | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% +1.0pp | 12.0% | 7.5% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 12.4% | +9.4pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 21.6% | +12.7pp |
| WACC | 8.6% | 5.5% | -3.1pp |
Based on spot price 11.20 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin3.9%
EBITDA Margin12.7%
ROE3.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-1.0x
P/E Trailing80.8x
EV / EBITDA23.7x
P/B3.0x
Analyst Range4.65 – 18.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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