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AI model estimates for
Nokia Oyj vs spot price

2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHtechnology⚠ Top disagreement #1
12.10 EUR
52-Week Range
3.42 €
12.40 €

5 AI models estimate NOKIA median target 7.51 € (-37.9% vs spot 12.10 €, model agreement 0.55). Analyst consensus 9.24 € (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
7.51 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-37.9%
Agreement
0.554/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.48
Dispersion
σ 0.28
Analyst consensus
9.24 €(22 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NOKIA. Key concern: Intense competition in telecommunications market AI consensus estimate 7.51 37.9% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.55). Analyst consensus: 9.24 (AI -18.7%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNOKIANokia Oyj12.1spot9.2analysts6.007.358.7010.111.412.8
Bear Case (min)
5.54 €
-54.2%
Base Case (median)
7.51 €
-37.9%
Bull Case (max)
12.10 €
0.0%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:6.82→7.51(+10.1%)
valuationNokiatechnology

Model Breakdown

GEMINI →
Est.
12.10
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data
GPT →
Est.
7.51
Gap
-37.9%
Conf
0.60
DCF 6.76 → Cal. 7.51
Key Drivers
  • Investment in AI and 5G technology
  • Expansion in cloud and network services
  • Recovery in global telecom spending
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in telecommunications market
  • Economic factors affecting customer budgets
  • Regulatory challenges in international markets
Delta
Valuation assumptions reflect a cautious approach considering market dynamics and potential growth areas.
No previous data
valuationNokiatechnology
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
6.65
Gap
-45.0%
Conf
0.55
DCF 5.54 → Cal. 6.65
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -5.8% (2022-2025) reflects declining legacy networ…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 3.9% is well below technology sector average; margin …
  • Net cash position (net debt/EBITDA -0.99) provides financial flexibility for …
Top Risk
  • Intense competition from Huawei, Ericsson, and Samsung could pressure market share and …
  • Telecom operator capex cycles are lumpy; a downturn in 5G spending could delay revenue …
  • Patent licensing revenue (Nokia Technologies) is volatile and subject to legal/regulato…
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. The spot price has increased slightly but fundamentals rema…
No change
no change
GROK →ADJ
Est.
6.65
Gap
-45.0%
Conf
0.55
DCF 5.54 → Cal. 6.65
Key Drivers
  • Modest recovery in network infrastructure and 5G spending
  • Margin expansion via cost discipline and mix shift to software/services
  • Low net debt provides balance-sheet flexibility
Top Risk
  • Intense competition and pricing pressure in RAN and optical
  • Carrier capex cyclicality and project delays
  • Execution risk on cloud and enterprise transition
Delta
Assumptions held steady; minor upward revision to near-term growth outlook based on latest revenue estimate.
No change
growth outlookmargin stability
CLAUDE →INVALID
Est.
12.10
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y2.0%–3.0%3.0%
EBIT Margin Target8.0%–12.0%8.0%
WACC9.5%–9.0%9.0%
Terminal Growth2.0%–2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)3.0%15.7%+12.7pp
EBIT Margin Target8.0%25.7%+17.7pp
WACC9.0%5.0%-4.0pp
Based on spot price 12.10 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin3.9%
EBITDA Margin12.7%
ROE3.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-1.0x
P/E Trailing87.3x
EV / EBITDA25.6x
P/B3.2x
Analyst Range– – –
Nokia Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile, fixed, and cloud network solutions in North and Latin America, Greater China, India, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in four segments: Network Infrastructure, Mobile Networks, Cloud and Network Services, and Nokia Technologies. The company offers fixed network solutions, such as fiber and copper technologies, access infrastructure, in-home Wi-Fi solutions, and cloud and virtualization services; IP network solutions, which delivers IP edge routing and data center networking solutions for residential, mobile, enterprise, and cloud applications; and optical networks solutions, which provides optical transport networks for metro, regional, and long-haul applications. It also provides mobile technology products and services for radio access networks and microwave radio links for transport networks; and network management solutions, as well as network planning, optimization, network deployment, and technical support services. In addition, the company offers cloud and network services, including open, secure, automated, and scalable software and solutions; and 5G core, secure autonomous networks, pr
Source: Yahoo Finance

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