19.61 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
14.40 €
22.92 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate FUM1V median target 12.46 € (-36.5% vs spot 19.61 €, model agreement 0.72). Analyst consensus 17.71 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
12.46 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-36.5%
Agreement
0.725/5 models
Raw 0.60
Dispersion
σ 12.9%
Analyst consensus
17.71 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on FUM1V. Key concern: Volatility in wholesale electricity and commodity prices impacting revenue an... AI consensus estimate 12.46 36.5% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.72). Analyst consensus: 17.71 (AI -29.6%).Bear Case (min)
7.40 €
-62.3%
Base Case (median)
12.46 €
-36.5%
Bull Case (max)
12.90 €
-34.2%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:12.46→12.46(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(3 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(1 ↑)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionspre-earnings
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for FUM1V moved from 12.46 € to 12.46 € (+0.0%); median WACC 7.0% → 8.5% (+1.50 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 5.6% → 12.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 12.46 € | 12.46 € | +0.0% |
| Median WACC | 7.00% | 8.50% | +1.50 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 4.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 18.0% | 18.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 5.6% | 12.9% | +7.35 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 12.90 → Cal. 14.35
Key Drivers
- Strategic growth plans focused on low-carbon energy generation (hydro, nuclea…
- Investments in new areas like battery recycling contributing to future revenu…
- Analyst consensus for 1-year revenue growth of 21.3% indicates a strong near-…
Top Risk
- Volatility in wholesale electricity and commodity prices impacting revenue and margins.
- Regulatory changes or increased competition in energy markets, particularly in core Nor…
- High capital expenditure requirements for energy transition projects and new investments.
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
revenue cagr 5y increased
DCF 12.39 → Cal. 13.99
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -13.7% is almost entirely driven by post-2022 ener…
- Analyst consensus projects 21.3% revenue growth for next 12 months, reflectin…
- Q1 2026 earnings call highlighted strong market prices and strategic growth p…
Top Risk
- Nordic power prices remain volatile; a sustained decline in spot electricity prices wou…
- Renewable capacity buildout (4.4GW pipeline acquired from ABO Energy) carries execution…
- Nuclear fuel supply chain risk: Fortum's VVER-440 reactors are pursuing alternative fue…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionspre-earnings
DCF 10.21 → Cal. 12.46
Key Drivers
- Investment in low-carbon energy solutions
- Expansion in battery recycling services
- Strategic partnerships for energy generation
Top Risk
- Regulatory pressures in energy markets
- Volatility in energy prices
- High capital expenditures impacting margins
Delta
No previous data
stabilityno change
DCF 7.70 → Cal. 10.70
Key Drivers
- Low-carbon generation mix (hydro/nuclear/wind) supports structurally high mar…
- Battery recycling and 4.4 GW wind pipeline add volume growth
- Historical revenue decline reflects 2022 price normalization, not structural …
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in power markets
- Regulatory changes in nuclear and renewables
- High historical capex intensity may persist
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
modest growth outlook improvement
DCF 7.40 → Cal. 10.49
Key Drivers
- Low-carbon hydro, nuclear, and wind generation provides stable baseload earni…
- Acquisition of 4.4GW renewable projects from ABO Energy signals growth in ons…
- Battery recycling and decarbonization services represent new growth verticals…
Top Risk
- Commodity price normalization: Nordic power prices could decline from elevated levels, …
- Regulatory risk: Potential windfall taxes or changes to nuclear/hydro licensing in Finl…
- Execution risk on large renewable project pipeline (4.4GW) and battery recycling scale-up.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
WACC+0.5pp
wacc adjustedcagr adjusted
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 4.0% | 3.0% +0.5pp | 4.5% +1.0pp | 5.0% | 4.0% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 18.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 17.0% +0.5pp |
| WACC | 7.0% | 9.0% +0.5pp | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 13.4% | +9.4pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 5.3% | -3.3pp |
Based on spot price 19.61 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin17.3%
EBITDA Margin24.0%
ROE9.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.2x
P/E Trailing21.4x
EV / EBITDA14.9x
P/B2.1x
Analyst Range12.50 – 23.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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