31.26 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
15.43 €
34.06 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate NESTE median target 31.97 € (+2.3% vs spot 31.26 €, model agreement 0.74). Analyst consensus 32.71 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
31.97 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+2.3%
Agreement
0.744/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.74
Dispersion
σ 11.7%
Analyst consensus
32.71 €(19 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
32.19 €
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are positive on NESTE. Key driver: Historical revenue CAGR of -9.6% (2022-2025) was heavily influenced by oil pr... AI consensus estimate 31.97 2.3% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.74). Analyst consensus: 32.71 (AI -2.3%).Bear Case (min)
25.87 €
-17.3%
Base Case (median)
31.97 €
+2.3%
Bull Case (max)
36.20 €
15.8%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:32.29→31.97(-1.0%)
assumptions-unchangedcyclical-recoveryenergy
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NESTE moved from 32.46 € to 31.97 € (-1.5%); median WACC 8.5% → 8.3% (-0.25 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 14.8% → 11.7%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 32.46 € | 31.97 € | -1.5% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 8.25% | -0.25 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 9.0% | 8.8% | -0.25 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 14.8% | 11.7% | -3.05 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 36.20 → Cal. 35.15
Key Drivers
- Renewable Products and SAF volume growth offsetting Oil Products cyclicality
- Normalized mid-cycle EBIT margin recovery from 1.7% trailing level
- Low beta 0.58 supports below-sector WACC
Top Risk
- Crude and feedstock price volatility
- Regulatory changes in renewable fuel mandates
- Execution risk on SAF capacity ramp
Delta
No change
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -9.6% (2022-2025) was heavily influenced by oil pr…
- Q2 2026 earnings and call highlights cite record EBITDA and strategic growth …
- Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel capacity additions are expecte…
Top Risk
- Crude oil and refined product price volatility can distort revenue and margins.
- Changes in renewable fuel mandates or subsidy policies could affect demand and profitab…
- Feedstock costs and rising competition in renewable diesel/SAF may pressure margins.
Delta
No change
assumptions-unchangedcyclical-recoveryenergy
DCF 31.64 → Cal. 31.96
Key Drivers
- Global leadership in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) dri…
- Expected recovery in EBIT margins from currently depressed levels as feedstoc…
- Capacity expansions in Singapore and Rotterdam enhancing production scale and…
Top Risk
- Regulatory risks regarding changes to biofuel mandates, subsidies, or tax credits in ke…
- Intensifying competition in the renewable fuels sector potentially capping long-term ma…
- Volatility in feedstock prices and availability, particularly waste and residue oils.
Delta
No change
stable outlookrenewables transition
DCF 25.87 → Cal. 27.92
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is only 1.7%, so the steady-state margin should normaliz…
- Historical revenue fell from EUR 25.7B in 2022 to EUR 19.0B in 2025, but for …
- Neste's renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel exposure supports mode…
Top Risk
- Commodity and crack-spread volatility can compress margins quickly.
- Renewable fuel policy, incentives, and regulation can shift demand and economics.
- Execution risk remains elevated while scaling renewable products and managing capital i…
Delta
No change
unchangedconservativeenergy-cycle
CLAUDE →INVALID
Delta
No previous data
Valuation Assumptions
| DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% |
| WACC | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 6.8% | +2.8pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 8.8% | 10.8% | +2.1pp |
| WACC | 8.3% | 7.1% | -1.1pp |
Based on spot price 31.26 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin1.7%
EBITDA Margin13.2%
ROE20.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing15.8x
EV / EBITDA10.2x
P/B2.8x
Analyst Range18.40 – 39.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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