27.18 EUR
52-Week Range
6.79 €
30.40 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
18.16 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-33.2%
Agreement
0.745/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.12
Analyst consensus
25.22 €(19 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on NESTE. Key concern: Volatile commodity prices for both feedstocks (e.g., waste fats, oils) and tr... AI consensus estimate 18.16 33.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.74). Analyst consensus: 25.22 (AI -28.0%).Bear Case (min)
15.13 €
-44.3%
Base Case (median)
18.16 €
-33.2%
Bull Case (max)
23.63 €
-13.0%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:18.16→18.16(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG+0.5pp(2 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Model Breakdown
GPT
DCF 23.63 → Cal. 24.11
Key Drivers
- Investment in renewable diesel and SAF transition
- Market expansion in Nordic and European regions
- Stable oil product demand but potential pricing volatility
Top Risk
- Dependence on commodity pricing fluctuations
- Regulatory changes in environmental policies
- Competition in renewable energy sector
Delta
No previous data
valuationassumptions
DEEPSEEK
DCF 17.89 → Cal. 20.09
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline (-9.6% CAGR 2022-2025) driven by commodity price n…
- Company is a leader in renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), …
- Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of -11% for next year, in…
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in both feedstock (e.g., palm oil) and output fuels directly…
- Regulatory risks surrounding biofuels mandates, sustainability criteria, and palm oil s…
- Execution risk in scaling up renewable fuel production capacity and maintaining technol…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
margin adjustmentstable outlook
CLAUDE⚖
DCF 15.13 → Cal. 18.16
Key Drivers
- Neste is a global leader in renewable diesel (HVO) and sustainable aviation f…
- Revenue has declined sharply from EUR 25.7B (2022) to EUR 19.0B (2025) primar…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 2.1% is severely cycle-depressed; a normalized mid-cy…
Top Risk
- Prolonged weakness in renewable diesel margins (LCFS credit prices, HVO oversupply from…
- Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, palm oil, tallow) and supply chain integri…
- High leverage (net debt/EBITDA 3.4x) leaves limited buffer if earnings recovery is slow…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
GEMINI⚖
DCF 15.13 → Cal. 18.16
Key Drivers
- Neste's strategic focus and investments in renewable diesel and sustainable a…
- Global demand trends for sustainable fuels and the supportive regulatory envi…
- Fluctuations in crude oil and renewable feedstock prices impacting both reven…
Top Risk
- Volatile commodity prices for both feedstocks (e.g., waste fats, oils) and traditional …
- Potential for adverse changes in biofuel mandates, carbon pricing, or other environment…
- Intense competition in the rapidly evolving renewable fuels market from both establishe…
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
MARG+0.5pp
revenue cagr adjustedebit margin adjusted
GROK⚖
DCF 15.13 → Cal. 18.16
Key Drivers
- Focus on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel as growth areas in en…
- Historical revenue decline likely due to commodity price normalization post-2…
- Expected stabilization in revenue with modest growth from renewable product s…
Top Risk
- Exposure to volatile commodity prices impacting revenue and margins.
- Regulatory changes in renewable fuel mandates could affect demand.
- Geopolitical tensions in key markets may disrupt supply chains.
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsminor update
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.0% | 2.0% +0.5pp | 2.5% -1.0pp | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 7.0% | 10.0% +0.5pp | 7.5% +0.5pp | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| WACC | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin2.1%
EBITDA Margin5.9%
ROE2.0%
Net Debt / EBITDA3.4x
P/E Trailing145.0x
EV / EBITDA22.0x
P/B2.9x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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