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AI model estimates for Neste Oyj vs spot price
2026-05-22🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Top disagreement #3
28.36 EUR
52-Week Range
8.84 €
31.01 €
5 AI models estimate NESTE median target 22.92 € (-19.2% vs spot 28.36 €, model agreement 0.74). Analyst consensus 28.43 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
22.92 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-19.2%
Agreement
0.745/5 models
Raw 0.65
Dispersion
σ 0.12
Analyst consensus
28.43 €(19 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NESTE. Key concern: Regulatory changes in biofuel blending mandates in EU and US AI consensus estimate 22.92 19.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.74). Analyst consensus: 28.43 (AI -19.4%).Bear Case (min)
18.83 €
-33.6%
Base Case (median)
22.92 €
-19.2%
Bull Case (max)
29.97 €
5.7%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:22.49→22.92(+1.9%)
MARG+0.5pp(1 ↑)
stable×2no-changestable-wacc
Model Breakdown
DCF 29.97 → Cal. 29.51
Key Drivers
- Investment in renewable diesel and aviation fuel markets
- Transition towards sustainable energy solutions
- Potential for margin improvements through operational enhancements
Top Risk
- Volatility in commodity prices affecting input costs
- Regulatory changes impacting fuel standards
- Competitive pressures in the renewable energy sector
Delta
No previous data
energyNeste
DCF 21.41 → Cal. 23.51
Key Drivers
- Continued expansion and market penetration of renewable diesel and sustainabl…
- Normalization of commodity prices and their impact on traditional oil products.
- Operational efficiency improvements to significantly raise EBIT margins from …
Top Risk
- Volatility in crude oil and refined product prices impacting profitability.
- Intense competition in the rapidly evolving renewable fuels market.
- Regulatory shifts or changes in government subsidies for renewable energy.
Delta
MARG+0.5pp
assumption change
DCF 20.56 → Cal. 22.92
Key Drivers
- Renewable Products and SAF volume growth offsetting oil product cyclicality
- Margin recovery from 2.1% trailing EBIT toward normalized mid-cycle levels
- Low beta 0.59 supports below-sector-midpoint WACC
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in Oil Products segment
- Policy and feedstock cost uncertainty for renewables
- Historical revenue CAGR -9.6% reflects price normalization not volume trend
Delta
No previous data
stable
DCF 19.76 → Cal. 22.36
Key Drivers
- Q1 2026 earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and meaningful…
- Historical revenue CAGR of -9.6% is heavily distorted by post-2022 energy com…
- Renewable Products segment (renewable diesel, SAF) is the structural growth e…
Top Risk
- Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils) can compress …
- Regulatory risk: changes to EU RED III blending mandates, US Renewable Fuel Standard po…
- Overcapacity risk in the renewable diesel market as competitors have added significant …
Delta
No change
no-changestable-waccstable-cagr
DCF 18.83 → Cal. 21.71
Key Drivers
- Renewable diesel and SAF demand growth supported by EU and US mandates
- Expansion of renewable product capacity and feedstock flexibility
- Oil Products segment margin normalization from 2024-2025 trough
Top Risk
- Regulatory changes in biofuel blending mandates in EU and US
- Feedstock cost volatility and competition for waste oils
- Cyclicality in oil refining margins impacting Oil Products segment
Delta
No change
no changestable
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% +0.5pp | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| WACC | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.5% | 7.0% | +3.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 11.8% | +2.8pp |
| WACC | 8.7% | 7.2% | -1.4pp |
Based on spot price 28.36 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin2.1%
EBITDA Margin9.5%
ROE9.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.9x
P/E Trailing30.4x
EV / EBITDA13.9x
P/B2.8x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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