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AI model estimates for Neste Oyj vs spot price
2026-07-10🇫🇮 OMXHenergy⚠ Top disagreement #3
29.10 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
12.29 €
31.01 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate NESTE median target 22.98 € (-21.0% vs spot 29.10 €, model agreement 0.69). Analyst consensus 29.58 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
22.98 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-21.0%
Agreement
0.695/5 models
Raw 0.58
Dispersion
σ 15.2%
Analyst consensus
29.58 €(19 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on NESTE. Key concern: Volatility in feedstock prices and availability for renewable fuel production. AI consensus estimate 22.98 21.0% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.69). Analyst consensus: 29.58 (AI -22.3%).Bear Case (min)
17.53 €
-39.8%
Base Case (median)
22.98 €
-21.0%
Bull Case (max)
31.88 €
9.5%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:22.97→22.98(+0.0%)
WACC+0.1pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsconfidence-nudge-up
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-09, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NESTE moved from 21.34 € to 22.97 € (+7.6%); median WACC 8.8% → 9.0% (+0.25 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 17.7% → 14.4%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-09) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 21.34 € | 22.97 € | +7.6% |
| Median WACC | 8.75% | 9.00% | +0.25 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 8.0% | 9.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 17.7% | 14.4% | -3.28 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 31.88 → Cal. 31.19
Key Drivers
- Investment in renewable fuels
- Expanding market for sustainable aviation fuels
- Cost management initiatives
Top Risk
- Volatility in commodity prices
- Regulatory changes affecting the energy sector
- Competition in renewable fuels
Delta
WACC+0.1pp
valuationassumptions
DCF 22.45 → Cal. 24.59
Key Drivers
- Continued strategic investments in renewable products, particularly sustainab…
- Global demand growth for lower-emission fuels and energy solutions.
- Price realization and volume growth in the Renewable Products segment.
Top Risk
- Volatility in feedstock prices and availability for renewable fuel production.
- Execution risks and capital intensity associated with new renewable capacity expansion …
- Competitive pressures in both traditional and renewable fuel markets.
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 20.15 → Cal. 22.98
Key Drivers
- Renewable products and SAF volume growth offsetting oil-product cyclicality
- Normalized mid-cycle EBIT margin recovery from 2.1% trailing level
- Low beta (0.57) and stable Nordic operations support below-sector WACC
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility in oil products segment
- Execution risk on large renewable capacity investments
- Regulatory changes affecting biofuel mandates and carbon pricing
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 17.90 → Cal. 21.40
Key Drivers
- Renewable Products segment (renewable diesel, SAF) is the core growth engine;…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 2.1% reflects a pronounced cyclical trough driven by …
- Historical revenue CAGR of -9.6% is almost entirely commodity-price-driven (p…
Top Risk
- Feedstock cost volatility (used cooking oil, animal fats, vegetable oils) directly comp…
- Renewable diesel and SAF margin compression from new global capacity additions by compe…
- Policy risk: changes to EU renewable fuel mandates, US RFS/blending credits (RINs), or …
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsconfidence-nudge-up
DCF 17.53 → Cal. 21.15
Key Drivers
- Growing demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel driven by E…
- Expansion of renewable product capacity and feedstock flexibility improving m…
- Transition from commodity oil products to higher-margin renewables supporting…
Top Risk
- Regulatory changes in biofuel blending mandates in EU and US
- Feedstock cost volatility and competition for waste oils and residues
- Execution risk in scaling renewable capacity and SAF production
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 9.0% |
| WACC | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% +0.1pp | 9.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.0% | 8.0% | +5.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 9.0% | 13.2% | +4.2pp |
| WACC | 9.0% | 7.0% | -2.0pp |
Based on spot price 29.10 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin2.1%
EBITDA Margin9.5%
ROE9.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.9x
P/E Trailing31.2x
EV / EBITDA14.2x
P/B2.9x
Analyst Range12.10 – 36.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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