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AI model estimates for ExxonMobil Corporation vs spot price
2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Penergy
137.46 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$105.53
$176.41
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate XOM median target $103.83 (-24.5% vs spot $137.46, model agreement 0.91). Analyst consensus $167.38 (21 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$103.83
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-24.5%
Agreement
0.915/5 models
Raw 0.83shrinkage-induced
Dispersion
σ 3.4%
Analyst consensus
$167.38(21 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on XOM. Key concern: Volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices significantly impacts revenue,... AI consensus estimate 103.83 24.5% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.91). Analyst consensus: 167.38 (AI -38.0%).Bear Case (min)
$70.17
-49.0%
Base Case (median)
$103.83
-24.5%
Bull Case (max)
$86.24
-37.3%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:105.74→103.83(-1.8%)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
assumptions-stableq2-earnings-imminentcommodity-tailwinds-noted
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for XOM moved from $108.82 to $103.83 (-4.6%); median WACC 9.5% → 10.0% (+0.50 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 9.3% → 3.4%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $108.82 | $103.83 | -4.6% |
| Median WACC | 9.50% | 10.00% | +0.50 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 9.3% | 3.4% | -5.88 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 86.24 → Cal. 110.59
Key Drivers
- Investment in lower-emission projects and technologies
- Volatility in global oil prices impacting revenue stability
- Increase in global energy demand post-pandemic
Top Risk
- Regulatory changes impacting operations
- Environmental concerns affecting production
- Geopolitical risks affecting oil supply
Delta
No previous data
energyvaluationstability
DCF 78.42 → Cal. 105.11
Key Drivers
- Strategic investments in lower-emission businesses, including carbon capture,…
- Continued global demand for energy products, supported by population growth a…
- Operational efficiency improvements and cost management across integrated ups…
Top Risk
- Volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices significantly impacts revenue, profitabi…
- Regulatory changes and evolving environmental policies could increase operating costs, …
- Geopolitical instability in key operating regions may disrupt supply chains, operations…
Delta
No previous data
stable outlook
DCF 76.60 → Cal. 103.83
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is a commodity-cycle artifact from post-2022…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 10.4% reflects a mid-cycle oil price environment; ste…
- Beta of 0.162 is well below the 0.6 CAPM threshold, so sector mid-point WACC …
Top Risk
- Oil price volatility remains the dominant earnings driver; a sustained decline in Brent…
- Analyst 1-year earnings growth estimate of -43.4% reflects near-term commodity price he…
- Geopolitical risk including Hormuz tensions (per recent headlines) could affect global …
Delta
No change
assumptions-stableq2-earnings-imminentcommodity-tailwinds-noted
DCF 76.60 → Cal. 103.83
Key Drivers
- Integrated energy model provides diversification across commodity cycles and …
- Investment in lower-emission ventures (carbon capture, hydrogen, lithium) may…
- Forward revenue growth estimate of 2.6% suggests revenue stabilization after …
Top Risk
- Commodity price volatility (crude oil, natural gas) directly impacts revenue and margins
- Global energy transition policies may reduce long-term demand for fossil fuels
- High capital expenditure requirements (8.7% of revenue) for maintenance and new projects
Delta
WACC+0.5pp
wacc adjustmentno change in growth/margin
DCF 70.17 → Cal. 99.34
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR severely distorted by post-2022 commodity price norma…
- Integrated upstream/downstream model provides relative earnings stability
- Modest long-term volume growth offset by efficiency and lower-emission invest…
Top Risk
- Commodity price cyclicality remains primary earnings driver
- Regulatory and transition-policy exposure in multiple jurisdictions
- Capex intensity and net debt levels constrain flexibility in downturns
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| WACC | 10.0% | 10.0% +0.5pp | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 10.0% | +8.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.0% | 21.4% | +9.4pp |
| WACC | 10.0% | 6.8% | -3.3pp |
Based on spot price $137.46 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.4%
EBITDA Margin17.2%
ROE9.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.7x
P/E Trailing22.5x
EV / EBITDA10.9x
P/B2.2x
Analyst Range130.00 – 185.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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