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AI model estimates for
ExxonMobil Corporation vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Penergy
155.29 USD
52-Week Range
$101.19
$176.41

5 AI models estimate XOM median target $127.08 (-18.2% vs spot $155.29, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $168.32 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$127.08
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-18.2%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$168.32(22 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on XOM. Key concern: Significant volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemical prices im... AI consensus estimate 127.08 18.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 168.32 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokXOMExxonMobil …155.3spot168.3analysts122132143153163173
Bear Case (min)
$109.41
-29.5%
Base Case (median)
$127.08
-18.2%
Bull Case (max)
$109.41
-29.5%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

Loading...

What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:127.08→127.08(+0.0%)
CAGR
+0.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG
-0.5pp(1 ↓)
WACC
+0.2pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionscommodity-cycle-aware

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →ADJ
Est.
127.08
Gap
-18.2%
Conf
0.70
DCF 109.41 → Cal. 127.08
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% is entirely commodity-cycle-driven (post-202…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 10.4% is below mid-cycle potential; 12% target reflec…
  • Very low beta (0.18) anchors WACC firmly at the lower bound of the energy sec…
Top Risk
  • Oil and gas price volatility remains the primary earnings driver; a sustained decline i…
  • Analyst 1-year earnings growth estimate of -43.4% signals near-term earnings headwinds …
  • Capital expenditure intensity at 8.7% of revenue (~$28B annually) limits free cash flow…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model (wacc 9.0%, revenue_cagr_5y 2.0%, terminal_g…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionscommodity-cycle-aware
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
127.08
Gap
-18.2%
Conf
0.55
DCF 109.41 → Cal. 127.08
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.7% reflects post-2022 commodity price normaliza…
  • Forward revenue growth anchored at 2.6% analyst estimate for next year, with …
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 10.4% is below mid-cycle; target 12% reflects normali…
Top Risk
  • Commodity price volatility (crude oil, natural gas) can significantly impact revenue an…
  • Global energy transition policies may reduce long-term demand for fossil fuels
  • Geopolitical risks in key operating regions (e.g., Guyana, Permian Basin)
Delta
No material change in assumptions; same model parameters as yesterday.
No change
no change
GEMINI →ADJ
Est.
127.08
Gap
-18.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 109.41 → Cal. 127.08
Key Drivers
  • Global energy demand trends and the stability of commodity prices (oil, natur…
  • Successful execution and scaling of new lower-emission business opportunities…
  • Continued operational efficiency and cost management across Upstream, Energy …
Top Risk
  • Significant volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemical prices impacting re…
  • Accelerated global energy transition and adverse regulatory changes affecting fossil fu…
  • Execution challenges and competitive pressures in developing and commercializing new en…
Delta
No significant changes in core valuation assumptions since yesterday.
No change
no change
GPT →ADJ
Est.
127.08
Gap
-18.2%
Conf
0.60
DCF 109.41 → Cal. 127.08
Key Drivers
  • Strategic investments in lower-emission technologies
  • Potential recovery in global energy demand
  • Product diversification and innovation
Top Risk
  • Commodity price volatility
  • Regulatory changes impacting fossil fuels
  • Competition from renewable energy sectors
Delta
Assumptions remain stable with no significant changes noted.
No change
stableunchanged
GROK →ADJ
Est.
127.08
Gap
-18.2%
Conf
0.58
DCF 109.41 → Cal. 127.08
Key Drivers
  • Mature integrated energy major with upstream/downstream balance
  • Low beta (0.18) supports below-sector WACC
  • Commodity-driven historical revenue decline not indicative of forward volume …
Top Risk
  • Oil and gas price cyclicality
  • Regulatory and climate-related litigation exposure
  • Energy transition and carbon policy headwinds
Delta
Slightly higher revenue CAGR to align with analyst 1Y growth estimate; WACC nudged for low beta calibration.
CAGR
+0.5pp
MARG
-0.5pp
WACC
+0.2pp
margin adjustmentWACC calibrationgrowth anchor

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y2.0%2.5%2.5%3.0%2.5%
+0.5pp
EBIT Margin Target12.0%12.0%11.0%12.0%10.5%
-0.5pp
WACC9.0%9.5%9.0%9.0%9.2%
+0.2pp
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)2.5%9.4%+6.9pp
EBIT Margin Target12.0%20.0%+8.0pp
WACC9.0%6.4%-2.6pp
Based on spot price $155.29 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin10.4%
EBITDA Margin17.2%
ROE9.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.7x
P/E Trailing25.4x
EV / EBITDA12.2x
P/B2.5x
Analyst Range– – –
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. Exxon Mobil Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Spring, Texas.
Source: Yahoo Finance

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