355.94 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$297.38
$498.83
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate TSLA median target $156.04 (-56.2% vs spot $355.94, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $390.09 (39 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$156.04
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-56.2%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00⚠ cap-induced
Dispersion
σ 0.0%
Analyst consensus
$390.09(39 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$226.25
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on TSLA. Key concern: Intense global EV competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers like B... AI consensus estimate 156.04 56.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 390.09 (AI -60.0%).Bear Case (min)
$156.04
-56.2%
Base Case (median)
$156.04
-56.2%
Bull Case (max)
$156.04
-56.2%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:156.04→156.04(+0.0%)
CAGR+1.0pp(2 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
no-changerobotaxi-permit-positivebyd-competition-risk
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for TSLA moved from $158.14 to $156.04 (-1.3%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 0.0% → 0.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $158.14 | $156.04 | -1.3% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 11.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 10.0% | 12.0% | +2.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.00 pp |
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE →ADJ
DCF 156.04 → Cal. 226.25
Key Drivers
- Analyst consensus projects 25.5% revenue growth in the next 12 months, a shar…
- Robotaxi permits won by Tesla (per August 28 headline) represent a meaningful…
- Energy Generation and Storage segment continues to grow rapidly and carries s…
Top Risk
- Trailing EBIT margin of 4.7% is very thin; margin recovery to ~12% requires successful …
- Revenue declined from $96.8B (2023) to $94.8B (2025), reflecting near-term demand softn…
- BYD's global push delivering profit growth (per August 28 headline) highlights intensif…
Delta
No change
no-changerobotaxi-permit-positivebyd-competition-risk
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
DCF 156.04 → Cal. 226.25
Key Drivers
- TTM revenue of $103.6B is above the 2025 level of ~$94.8B, and the Yahoo Fina…
- Energy generation/storage and services/software should broaden revenue beyond…
- Autonomy and robotaxi initiatives, including recent robotaxi permit progress,…
Top Risk
- Intense EV price competition and demand cyclicality could keep EBIT margins below the m…
- Autonomous/robotaxi and AI initiatives depend on regulatory approvals, safety validatio…
- High beta (1.83), share-price volatility, and key-person concentration may pressure the…
Delta
No change
assumptions-unchangedreaffirmed
GEMINI →ADJ
DCF 156.04 → Cal. 226.25
Key Drivers
- Securing of robotaxi permits in partnership/competition with Uber, validating…
- Anticipated launch of new vehicle models ('cooler than a minivan' / Robovan) …
- Rapid scaling of the Energy Generation and Storage segment to offset automoti…
Top Risk
- Intense global EV competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers like BYD whose p…
- High valuation multiples (trailing P/E over 360x) leaving little room for execution mis…
- Regulatory hurdles and safety scrutiny surrounding autonomous driving and robotaxi depl…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
robotaxi-permitsrobovan-teaseautonomous-driving
GPT →ADJ
DCF 156.04 → Cal. 226.25
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR is modest at 5.2%, while near-term revenue growth exp…
- Trailing EBIT margin is 4.7%, and a modest improvement toward 7% reflects sca…
- Beta of 1.827 indicates elevated equity risk; using the sector technology WAC…
Top Risk
- EV pricing pressure could keep revenue growth below the assumed pace.
- Margin expansion may be limited if incentives, mix, or manufacturing costs worsen.
- High market expectations leave limited room for operational disappointment.
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG-1.0pp
margin-downwacc-flatgrowth-flat
GROK →ADJ
DCF 156.04 → Cal. 226.25
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 5.2% with recent flattening (2022-2025)
- Trailing EBIT margin 4.7% provides low base for expansion via scale and energ…
- Beta 1.83 drives WACC to sector midpoint 11%
Top Risk
- EV market share pressure and China recall execution risk
- Margin expansion dependent on new product ramps (robotics, energy)
- High beta indicates elevated volatility vs sector
Delta
No change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 18.0% | 12.0% | 13.5% +0.5pp | 10.0% +1.0pp | 7.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% +0.5pp | 7.0% -1.0pp | 12.0% |
| WACC | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.0% | 38.6% | +26.6pp |
Based on spot price $355.94 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin4.7%
EBITDA Margin10.4%
ROE4.6%
Net Debt / EBITDA-2.5x
P/E Trailing369.4x
EV / EBITDA128.2x
P/B16.2x
Analyst Range125.00 – 600.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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