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AI model estimates for
Tesla Inc. vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
417.85 USD
52-Week Range
$273.21
$498.83

5 AI models estimate TSLA median target $310.98 (-25.6% vs spot $417.85, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $411.89 (41 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$310.98
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-25.6%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$411.89(41 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on TSLA. Key concern: Intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market. AI consensus estimate 310.98 25.6% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 411.89 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokTSLATesla Inc.417.9spot411.9analysts298325351378404431
Bear Case (min)
$267.73
-35.9%
Base Case (median)
$310.98
-25.6%
Bull Case (max)
$267.73
-35.9%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:310.98→310.98(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsspacex-ipo-distraction-risk

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →ADJ
Est.
310.98
Gap
-25.6%
Conf
0.57
DCF 267.73 → Cal. 310.98
Key Drivers
  • Analyst consensus projects 15.8% revenue growth for next 12 months — anchorin…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 5.0% is severely compressed vs historical peaks; stea…
  • Net cash position of ~$28.9 billion (net debt/EBITDA of -2.6x) provides subst…
Top Risk
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 5.0% is severely compressed; failure to recover margins through…
  • Intensifying EV competition from BYD and other Chinese OEMs in key markets (China, Euro…
  • Elon Musk's political profile and management attention (DOGE, SpaceX IPO, xAI) create b…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior model run (2026-05-21). Today's incremental news — W…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsspacex-ipo-distraction-risk
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
310.98
Gap
-25.6%
Conf
0.60
DCF 267.73 → Cal. 310.98
Key Drivers
  • Future revenue growth driven by energy storage and generation segment expansi…
  • EBIT margin target reflects expected improvement from scale and cost efficien…
  • High beta (1.79) and elevated market risk justify a WACC at the upper end of …
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in EV market from legacy automakers and new entrants may pressure p…
  • Regulatory changes or reduction in EV incentives could dampen demand.
  • Execution risk on new product launches and ramp of production capacity.
Delta
No material changes in assumptions from yesterday's model. All key inputs remain consistent.
No previous data
unchanged
GEMINI →ADJ
Est.
310.98
Gap
-25.6%
Conf
0.80
DCF 267.73 → Cal. 310.98
Key Drivers
  • Continued growth in global electric vehicle adoption.
  • Successful expansion into new product segments and geographic markets.
  • Monetization of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and other software services.
Top Risk
  • Intensifying competition in the electric vehicle market.
  • Regulatory challenges and safety concerns related to autonomous driving technology.
  • Potential supply chain disruptions and raw material price volatility.
Delta
No valid prior model available for comparison.
No previous data
no previous model
GPT →ADJ
Est.
310.98
Gap
-25.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 267.73 → Cal. 310.98
Key Drivers
  • Increasing demand for electric vehicles.
  • Expansion into energy storage solutions.
  • Innovations in autonomous driving technology.
Top Risk
  • Intense competition from other EV manufacturers.
  • Regulatory changes affecting electric vehicle incentives.
  • Supply chain disruptions impacting production.
Delta
No significant changes in growth outlook since yesterday.
No previous data
technologygrowthrisk
GROK →ADJ
Est.
310.98
Gap
-25.6%
Conf
0.55
DCF 267.73 → Cal. 310.98
Key Drivers
  • EV and energy storage volume growth expected to exceed historical CAGR
  • Margin expansion from scale, mix shift to higher-margin products, and fixed-c…
  • High beta of 1.79 supports upper-end WACC for technology growth sector
Top Risk
  • Execution risk on new vehicle platforms and autonomy timeline
  • Intense price competition and potential margin pressure in core auto segment
  • Regulatory and tariff exposure in key markets (US, China, EU)
Delta
Assumptions held steady vs prior day; no material revision to growth, margin or WACC inputs.
No change
baseline

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y15.0%12.0%13.0%10.0%12.0%
EBIT Margin Target10.0%8.0%18.0%15.0%12.0%
WACC11.5%10.5%11.5%10.8%11.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%3.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin5.0%
EBITDA Margin11.3%
ROE4.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-2.6x
P/E Trailing406.4x
EV / EBITDA138.9x
P/B19.1x
Analyst Range– – –
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services a
Source: Yahoo Finance

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