316.22 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$201.50
$317.40
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate AAPL median target $190.82 (-39.7% vs spot $316.22, model agreement 0.88). Analyst consensus $315.57 (42 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$190.82
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-39.7%
Agreement
0.885/5 models
Raw 0.80
Dispersion
σ 4.3%
Analyst consensus
$315.57(42 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on AAPL. Key concern: Geopolitical tensions (US-China trade, Taiwan supply chain) could disrupt man... AI consensus estimate 190.82 39.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.88). Analyst consensus: 315.57 (AI -39.5%).Bear Case (min)
$126.23
-60.1%
Base Case (median)
$190.82
-39.7%
Bull Case (max)
$153.30
-51.5%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:190.82→190.82(+0.0%)
no-assumption-changeincremental-news-supportivestable-model
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AAPL moved from $190.68 to $190.82 (+0.1%); median WACC 10.5% → 11.0% (+0.50 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 6.3% → 4.3%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $190.68 | $190.82 | +0.1% |
| Median WACC | 10.50% | 11.00% | +0.50 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 8.0% | 8.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 30.0% | 30.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 6.3% | 4.3% | -1.92 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 153.30 → Cal. 201.98
Key Drivers
- Strong product ecosystem driving user retention
- Continued investment in innovation and new technologies
- Scale advantages in manufacturing and distribution
Top Risk
- Supply chain disruptions impacting production
- Competitive pressures in the technology sector
- Potential regulatory scrutiny in various markets
Delta
No previous data
updateassumptions
DCF 152.23 → Cal. 201.23
Key Drivers
- Strong brand loyalty and extensive customer ecosystem, driving recurring reve…
- Continued innovation in product lines, including new ventures like Apple Visi…
- Growth in high-margin services segment, which provides a stable and expanding…
Top Risk
- Intense competition across all product categories, particularly in smartphones, wearabl…
- Potential supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions impacting manufacturing an…
- Increasing regulatory scrutiny and antitrust concerns in major markets, potentially aff…
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 137.36 → Cal. 190.82
Key Drivers
- Services segment (App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, Apple Card) cont…
- Analyst consensus projects 16.6% revenue growth in next 12 months driven by i…
- Apple Intelligence / on-device AI integration across iPhone, Mac, and iPad cr…
Top Risk
- Geopolitical tensions (US-China trade, Taiwan supply chain) could disrupt manufacturing…
- Historical revenue CAGR of only 1.8% (2022-2025) reflects hardware saturation; sustaini…
- Regulatory pressure on App Store economics (EU Digital Markets Act, DOJ antitrust) coul…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changeincremental-news-supportivestable-model
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
DCF 126.23 → Cal. 183.03
Key Drivers
- Services segment (App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+) continues to gen…
- Strong brand loyalty and ecosystem lock-in support stable hardware demand and…
- Capital-light business model with low capex-to-revenue (2.8%) yields robust f…
Top Risk
- Mature smartphone market limits unit growth; revenue depends on upgrade cycles and pric…
- Regulatory and antitrust pressure on App Store fees and digital services could compress…
- Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly in China, may impact p…
Delta
No change
cagr stablewacc stablemargin stable
GROK →ADJ
DCF 126.23 → Cal. 183.03
Key Drivers
- Services and ecosystem recurring revenue growing faster than hardware
- Trailing EBIT margin of 29.5% provides high steady-state base
- Low net debt (0.1x EBITDA) supports flexibility
Top Risk
- Geopolitical supply-chain concentration in Asia
- Hardware maturation and slower smartphone replacement cycles
- Regulatory pressure on App Store and services margins
Delta
No change
no revision
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 8.0% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 31.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 35.0% | 30.0% |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 8.0% | 22.1% | +14.1pp |
| WACC | 11.0% | 6.1% | -4.9pp |
Based on spot price $316.22 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin29.5%
EBITDA Margin35.4%
ROE166.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.1x
P/E Trailing37.9x
EV / EBITDA29.1x
P/B43.6x
Analyst Range215.00 – 400.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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