71.70 EUR
52-Week Range
46.62 €
75.30 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
98.10 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+36.8%
Agreement
0.965/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.01
Analyst consensus
72.67 €(6 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ORNBV. Key driver: Record 2025 revenue of €1.89B with exceptional 60.1% analyst-estimated 1-year... AI consensus estimate 98.10 36.8% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.96). Analyst consensus: 72.67 (AI +35.0%).Bear Case (min)
104.52 €
45.8%
Base Case (median)
98.10 €
+36.8%
Bull Case (max)
109.00 €
52.0%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:98.10→98.10(+0.0%)
CAGR-1.0pp(2 ↓)
MARG+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC-0.1pp(1 ↓)
assumptions-stableno-new-primary-datahold
Model Breakdown
DEEPSEEK⚖
DCF 109.00 → Cal. 98.10
Key Drivers
- Record 2025 revenue of €1.89B with exceptional 60.1% analyst-estimated 1-year…
- Strong historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (2022-2025) provides robust baseline …
- High trailing EBIT margin of 33.3% indicates pricing power and operational ef…
Top Risk
- Revenue growth heavily dependent on key drug Nubeqa; pipeline diversification is limited
- Patent expirations on existing products could pressure long-term margins beyond forecas…
- High P/E (20.2x) and P/B (7.85x) ratios suggest premium valuation sensitive to growth e…
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
MARG+1.0pp
WACC-0.1pp
revenue adjustedwacc refinedmargin maintained
GEMINI⚖
DCF 109.00 → Cal. 98.10
Key Drivers
- Continued strong performance and market penetration of key oncology drug Nube…
- Successful execution of the oncology-pivot strategy, potentially leading to h…
- Maintenance of high EBIT margins, consistent with a specialty pharma company …
Top Risk
- Intense competition from generic manufacturers or new drug entrants in core therapeutic…
- Potential patent expirations for existing key drugs impacting future revenue streams.
- Regulatory changes or delays in drug approvals affecting product launches and market ac…
Delta
CAGR-3.0pp
growth outlook moderated
GPT⚖
DCF 109.00 → Cal. 98.10
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth
- Expansion of product offerings
- Sustained EBIT margins due to proprietary drugs
Top Risk
- Patent expirations affecting revenue
- Regulatory changes impacting drug approvals
- Intense competition in pharmaceutical market
Delta
No previous data
GROK⚖
DCF 109.00 → Cal. 98.10
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth (12.1% CAGR 2022-2025) supports a forward-lo…
- Record 2025 results and strategic developments in oncology (e.g., Nubeqa for …
- High trailing EBIT margin (33.3%) expected to remain stable at 34% with conti…
Top Risk
- Potential patent expirations on key drugs could impact future revenue streams.
- Increased competition in specialty pharma markets may pressure margins.
- Regulatory changes in key markets (Europe, North America) could affect pricing power.
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsno major update
CLAUDE
DCF 104.52 → Cal. 94.97
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa (darolutamide) royalty stream from Bayer partnership remains the prima…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (2022–2025: €1.34B→€1.89B) provides a strong…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 33.3% is well above typical diversified pharma, drive…
Top Risk
- Nubeqa royalty concentration risk: a significant portion of recent revenue and margin u…
- Analyst 1-year revenue growth estimate of 60% sets a very high bar; any miss or royalty…
- Patent expiration risk on legacy Parkinson's portfolio (Entacapone/Stalevo/Comtan) and …
Delta
No change
assumptions-stableno-new-primary-datahold
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 8.0% | 12.0% -1.0pp | 15.0% -3.0pp | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 31.0% | 33.0% +1.0pp | 34.0% | 38.0% | 34.0% |
| WACC | 7.9% | 7.7% -0.1pp | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin33.3%
EBITDA Margin36.1%
ROE38.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing20.2x
EV / EBITDA15.0x
P/B7.8x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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