79.75 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
56.50 €
82.80 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate ORNBV median target 146.35 € (+83.5% vs spot 79.75 €, model agreement 0.90). Analyst consensus 76.67 € (6 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
146.35 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+83.5%
Agreement
0.905/5 models
Raw 0.90shrinkage-induced
Dispersion
σ 3.8%
Analyst consensus
76.67 €(6 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
125.45 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ORNBV. Key driver: Historical 2022-2025 revenue CAGR of about 12% and continued 2026 momentum su... AI consensus estimate 146.35 83.5% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.90). Analyst consensus: 76.67 (AI +90.9%).Bear Case (min)
136.96 €
71.7%
Base Case (median)
146.35 €
+83.5%
Bull Case (max)
153.33 €
92.3%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:146.24→146.35(+0.1%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
healthcare×3no-changestable-assumptions
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for ORNBV moved from 153.33 € to 146.35 € (-4.6%); median WACC 8.0% → 8.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 1.9% → 3.8%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 153.33 € | 146.35 € | -4.6% |
| Median WACC | 8.00% | 8.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.0% | 9.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 31.5% | 31.0% | -0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 1.9% | 3.8% | +1.91 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 153.33 → Cal. 130.33
Key Drivers
- Strong growth momentum in the oncology segment, particularly driven by Nubeqa…
- Solid historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% from 2022 to 2025, with near-term grow…
- High-margin specialty portfolio sustaining a trailing EBIT margin of 30.6%, w…
Top Risk
- High R&D intensity and clinical trial risks associated with the oncology pipeline pivot
- Potential patent expirations and generic competition for mature product lines like Park…
- Regulatory and pricing pressures in key European and North American healthcare markets
Delta
No change
healthcarenordiconcology
DCF 151.23 → Cal. 128.86
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa (darolutamide) royalty stream from Bayer partnership remains the prima…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (EUR 1,340M to EUR 1,889M, 2022–2025) provid…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 30.6% is already well above the typical diversified p…
Top Risk
- Nubeqa royalty concentration risk: a disproportionate share of recent growth is tied to…
- Patent cliff and generic erosion on legacy Parkinson's disease portfolio (Entacapone/St…
- Currency risk: royalty income is partly USD-denominated while reporting is in EUR; sust…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DCF 146.35 → Cal. 125.45
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (2022-2025) driven by Nubeqa and Easy…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 30.6% reflects specialty pharma mix with proprietary …
- Low beta of 0.30 and zero net debt support defensive healthcare profile
Top Risk
- Patent expirations on key products could pressure future revenue growth
- High R&D intensity typical for pharma may limit margin expansion
- Regulatory and pricing pressure in European markets
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
cagr increase
DCF 146.24 → Cal. 125.37
Key Drivers
- Historical 2022-2025 revenue CAGR of about 12% and continued 2026 momentum su…
- Trailing EBIT margin around 31% and EBITDA margin around 39% reflect a high-v…
- Oncology platform, including recent Hippo pathway data and Nubeqa-related mom…
Top Risk
- Revenue concentration in key oncology and hospital products creates dependence on clini…
- Patent expirations and generic/biosimilar competition could pressure the base pharmaceu…
- Clinical or regulatory setbacks in the pipeline would lower long-term growth prospects.
Delta
No change
no assumption changehealthcareoncology growth
DCF 136.96 → Cal. 118.87
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is 30.6%, indicating a profitable pharma mix and support…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% is strong, but a more moderate 5-year growth…
- The company has near-zero net debt and a low beta of 0.304, supporting a defe…
Top Risk
- Pharmaceutical revenue can be affected by patent dynamics, competitive pressure, and pr…
- Margin sustainability depends on product mix, pricing, and continued success of higher-…
- Recent share-price strength leaves less room for disappointment if near-term execution …
Delta
CAGR-1.0pp
fresh model viewhealthcaredefensive
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 9.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 7.0% -1.0pp | 9.0% +1.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 31.0% | 32.0% | 31.0% | 32.0% | 30.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.0% | 3.4% | -5.6pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 31.0% | 21.4% | -9.6pp |
| WACC | 8.0% | 10.4% | +2.4pp |
Based on spot price 79.75 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin30.6%
EBITDA Margin38.6%
ROE45.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.0x
P/E Trailing19.1x
EV / EBITDA14.2x
P/B8.8x
Analyst Range55.00 – 86.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy