70.55 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
56.50 €
75.30 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate ORNBV median target 105.76 € (+49.9% vs spot 70.55 €, model agreement 0.82). Analyst consensus 74.33 € (6 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
105.76 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+49.9%
Agreement
0.825/5 models
Raw 0.79
Dispersion
σ 7.1%
Analyst consensus
74.33 €(6 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on ORNBV. Key driver: Strong product portfolio in human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, including k... AI consensus estimate 105.76 49.9% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 74.33 (AI +42.3%).Bear Case (min)
101.30 €
43.6%
Base Case (median)
105.76 €
+49.9%
Bull Case (max)
126.21 €
78.9%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:107.53→105.76(-1.7%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(1 ↑)
stable×2no-assumption-changespot-price-drift
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for ORNBV moved from 101.95 € to 105.76 € (+3.7%); median WACC 8.5% → 8.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 5.1% → 7.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 101.95 € | 105.76 € | +3.7% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 8.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.0% | 9.5% | +0.50 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 32.0% | 33.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 5.1% | 7.1% | +2.02 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 126.21 → Cal. 110.65
Key Drivers
- Strong product portfolio in human and veterinary pharmaceuticals, including k…
- Strategic focus and positive developments in the oncology pipeline, as indica…
- Robust historical revenue growth (12.1% CAGR 2022-2025) and strong near-term …
Top Risk
- Potential for patent expirations on key proprietary drugs, impacting future revenue str…
- Risk of R&D failures or delays in new drug development, particularly in the oncology pi…
- Intense competition in the global pharmaceutical market from both branded and generic m…
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
MARG+0.5pp
revenue cagr 5y increaseebit margin target increase
DCF 125.20 → Cal. 109.94
Key Drivers
- Nubeqa (darolutamide) royalty stream from Bayer partnership remains the prima…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 12.1% (2022–2025: €1.34B→€1.89B) and strong Q1 202…
- Hippo pathway oncology pipeline data (June 2026) adds meaningful optionality …
Top Risk
- Nubeqa royalty concentration risk: a significant portion of recent growth is tied to Ba…
- Nubeqa royalty stream is finite and subject to eventual patent expiry; post-royalty rev…
- Small analyst coverage (n=6) and analyst consensus TP (€74.33) is only marginally above…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changespot-price-driftstable-fundamentals
DCF 119.23 → Cal. 105.76
Key Drivers
- Strong growth potential in oncology products
- Diversified portfolio of pharmaceutical offerings
- Improving financial metrics and low net debt
Top Risk
- Patent expirations could impact revenue growth
- Regulatory challenges in the healthcare sector
- Potential increase in market competition
Delta
No previous data
stableno change
DCF 104.56 → Cal. 95.49
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 12.1% (2022-2025) with continued oncology momentum
- Sustained high trailing EBIT margin 32.2% supported by specialty products (Nu…
- Low leverage (net debt/EBITDA 0.18) provides balance-sheet flexibility
Top Risk
- Patent cliffs on key molecules could pressure future revenue growth
- High R&D intensity required to sustain pipeline in oncology and respiratory
- Regulatory and reimbursement risk across EU and US markets
Delta
No previous data
stableno delta
DCF 101.30 → Cal. 93.21
Key Drivers
- Strong oncology pipeline with Nubeqa and promising Hippo pathway data
- Record 2025 results highlighting robust revenue and earnings growth
- High and stable EBIT margin of 32.2% reflecting proprietary drug portfolio
Top Risk
- Patent expirations on key products could pressure revenue and margins
- Concentration risk from a few large products (e.g., Nubeqa, Easyhaler)
- Regulatory and reimbursement uncertainty in various markets
Delta
No previous data
recovery
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 9.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% +1.0pp | 10.0% | 9.5% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 32.0% | 33.0% +0.5pp | 36.0% | 32.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 9.5% | 2.9% | -6.6pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 33.0% | 21.5% | -11.5pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 11.5% | +3.0pp |
Based on spot price 70.55 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin32.2%
EBITDA Margin36.9%
ROE41.2%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing18.8x
EV / EBITDA14.0x
P/B8.8x
Analyst Range55.00 – 81.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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