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AI model estimates for
Procter & Gamble Co. vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer
143.40 USD
52-Week Range
$137.62
$170.99

5 AI models estimate PG median target $134.45 (-6.2% vs spot $143.40, model agreement 0.86). Analyst consensus $163.77 (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$134.45
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-6.2%
Agreement
0.865/5 models
Raw 0.80
Dispersion
σ 0.05
Analyst consensus
$163.77(22 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on PG. Key concern: Intense competition from both established players and private labels. AI consensus estimate 134.45 6.2% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.86). Analyst consensus: 163.77 (AI -17.9%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokPGProcter & G…143.4spot163.8analysts119129139149159169
Bear Case (min)
$106.45
-25.8%
Base Case (median)
$134.45
-6.2%
Bull Case (max)
$134.21
-6.4%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:132.25→134.45(+1.7%)
WACC
+0.2pp(1 ↑)
no-assumption-changestable-modelnative-brand-extension-consistent

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →
Est.
143.08
Gap
-0.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 134.21 → Cal. 143.08
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of ~1.7% (2022-2025) was suppressed by volume headwin…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.6% is already above the consumer staples sector av…
  • Low beta of 0.40 anchors WACC firmly at the lower bound of the consumer stapl…
Top Risk
  • Trade policy uncertainty and tariffs on imported inputs (chemicals, packaging materials…
  • Volume elasticity risk: sustained price increases over 2022-2024 may have caused perman…
  • Currency headwinds: significant international revenue exposure (~55% of sales outside N…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model (2026-05-21). New headlines — including th…
No change
no-assumption-changestable-modelnative-brand-extension-consistent
GEMINI →
Est.
140.90
Gap
-1.7%
Conf
0.80
DCF 131.09 → Cal. 140.90
Key Drivers
  • Strong global brand portfolio providing pricing power and market share stabil…
  • Consistent product innovation across diverse consumer segments, as indicated …
  • Operational efficiency and scale contributing to robust margins, evident in t…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition from both established players and private labels.
  • Exposure to currency fluctuations due to extensive international operations.
  • Potential for volatility in raw material and commodity costs.
Delta
No significant changes to key valuation assumptions compared to yesterday's model.
No previous data
no change
GPT →
Est.
134.45
Gap
-6.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 121.88 → Cal. 134.45
Key Drivers
  • Strong brand portfolio providing competitive pricing power
  • Ongoing product innovation in core segments
  • Expansion opportunities in emerging markets
Top Risk
  • Inflationary pressures affecting cost of goods
  • Changes in consumer preferences impacting revenue growth
  • Economic downturns affecting consumer spending
Delta
No significant changes in assumptions since the previous assessment.
No previous data
no changesassumptions stable
GROK →
Est.
129.08
Gap
-10.0%
Conf
0.65
DCF 114.21 → Cal. 129.08
Key Drivers
  • Low-beta defensive staples profile supports WACC at lower end of 7.5-9.0% sec…
  • Historical revenue CAGR 1.7% (2022-2025) with strong pricing power and brand …
  • Trailing EBIT margin 23.6% provides headroom for steady-state target near 23%
Top Risk
  • Mature developed markets limit organic volume growth to low-single digits
  • Input cost inflation or trade disruptions could pressure margins despite pricing ability
  • Emerging-market currency volatility and slower expansion than historical averages
Delta
Assumptions held steady; minor recalibration of WACC to reflect latest low-beta reading and stable sector context.
WACC
+0.2pp
defensivestable
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
123.65
Gap
-13.8%
Conf
0.65
DCF 106.45 → Cal. 123.65
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 1.7% (2022-2025) anchors a conservative 3% forward…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.6% is near the high end of the consumer staples ra…
  • Low beta of 0.40 supports a below-midpoint WACC of 8.5%, consistent with the …
Top Risk
  • Input cost inflation or supply chain disruptions could pressure margins below the 24% t…
  • Intense competition from private labels and other branded players may limit market shar…
  • Currency fluctuations and geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade wars) could impact interna…
Delta
No material changes in assumptions from yesterday's model; all four key inputs remain unchanged.
No change
no change

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y4.0%3.0%4.5%5.0%3.5%
EBIT Margin Target24.5%24.0%23.5%24.0%23.0%
WACC7.7%8.5%7.8%8.5%8.0%
+0.2pp
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)4.0%5.9%+1.9pp
WACC8.0%7.3%-0.7pp
Based on spot price $143.40 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin23.6%
EBITDA Margin28.9%
ROE31.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.0x
P/E Trailing20.5x
EV / EBITDA14.3x
P/B6.2x
Analyst Range– – –
The Procter & Gamble Company provides branded consumer packaged goods worldwide. It operates through Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine & Family Care segments. The company offers conditioners, shampoos, styling aids, and treatments under the Head & Shoulders, Herbal Essences, Pantene, and Rejoice brands; antiperspirants, deodorants, and personal cleansing products under the Native, Old Spice, Safeguard, and Secret brands; and facial moisturizers, cleaners, and treatments under the Olay and SK-II brands. It also provides blades, razors, shave products, appliances, and other grooming products under the Braun, Gillette, and Venus brands. In addition, the company offers toothbrushes, toothpastes, and other oral care products under the Crest and Oral-B brands; and gastrointestinal, pain relief, rapid diagnostics, respiratory, vitamins/minerals/supplements, and other personal health care products under the Metamucil, Neurobion, Pepto-Bismol, and Vicks brands. Further, it provides fabric enhancers, and laundry additives and detergents under the Ariel, Downy, Gain, and Tide brands; and air and dish care, P&G professional, and surface care under the Cascad
Source: Yahoo Finance

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