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AI model estimates for
NVIDIA Corporation vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
219.51 USD
52-Week Range
$129.16
$236.54

5 AI models estimate NVDA median target $209.91 (-4.4% vs spot $219.51, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $278.03 (57 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$209.91
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-4.4%
Agreement
1.003/5 models ⚠
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$278.03(57 analysts)
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are negative on NVDA. Key concern: Intensifying competition from other semiconductor companies and the developme... AI consensus estimate 209.91 4.4% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 278.03 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokNVDANVIDIA Corp…219.5spot278.0analysts202219236252269286
Bear Case (min)
$180.72
-17.7%
Base Case (median)
$209.91
-4.4%
Bull Case (max)
$180.72
-17.7%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:209.91→209.91(+0.0%)
CAGR
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
MARG
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC
+0.2pp(1 ↑)
no changestable outlookno significant change

Model Breakdown

DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
209.91
Gap
-4.4%
Conf
0.65
DCF 180.72 → Cal. 209.91
Key Drivers
  • Data center AI infrastructure demand remains strong, driving revenue growth.
  • Compute & Networking segment benefits from accelerated computing and networki…
  • Strategic partnerships (Tech Mahindra, Lumentum) expand AI and optics capabil…
Top Risk
  • High beta (2.24) indicates significant market and sector volatility.
  • Competition in AI chips and data center solutions could pressure margins.
  • Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions may impact supply chain and sales.
Delta
No material change in assumptions from yesterday's model. Revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC, and terminal growth remain…
No change
no change
GEMINI →ADJ
Est.
209.91
Gap
-4.4%
Conf
0.80
DCF 180.72 → Cal. 209.91
Key Drivers
  • Dominance in AI infrastructure and accelerated computing market, driving sign…
  • Sustained high demand from generative AI and large language models, contribut…
  • Strong R&D investment and the CUDA ecosystem, maintaining a competitive edge …
Top Risk
  • Intensifying competition from other semiconductor companies and the development of cust…
  • Potential for a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending or a broader semiconductor marke…
  • Geopolitical risks impacting global supply chains, manufacturing, and market access.
Delta
The core valuation assumptions for NVIDIA remain consistent with the previous day's assessment, reflecting a stable o…
No change
stable outlookno significant change
GROK →ADJ
Est.
209.91
Gap
-4.4%
Conf
0.72
DCF 180.72 → Cal. 209.91
Key Drivers
  • AI data center demand remains primary growth driver
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 60.4% supports high steady-state target
  • Historical revenue CAGR moderating but still elevated for 5y horizon
Top Risk
  • Potential margin compression from increased competition
  • Customer concentration in hyperscalers
  • Geopolitical and export restriction exposure
Delta
Slight increase in 5y revenue CAGR to reflect continued AI platform momentum; minor lift in target margin and WACC fo…
CAGR
+1.0pp
MARG
+1.0pp
WACC
+0.2pp
updated growth outlook
CLAUDE →INVALID
Est.
219.51
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data
GPT →INVALID
Est.
219.51
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y25.0%45.0%26.0%
+1.0pp
EBIT Margin Target60.0%58.0%56.0%
+1.0pp
WACC11.5%15.7%11.7%
+0.2pp
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.5%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)26.0%28.1%+2.1pp
WACC11.7%10.8%-0.9pp
Based on spot price $219.51 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin60.4%
EBITDA Margin61.7%
ROE76.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.4x
P/E Trailing44.3x
EV / EBITDA39.5x
P/B33.9x
Analyst Range– – –
NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company. The company operates through two segments, Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants worldwide. It has a collaboration with Tech Mahindra Limited to develop artificial intelligence powered telco network operations reasoning agent. The company has a strategic partnership with Lumentum Holdings Inc. to develop optics tech
Source: Yahoo Finance

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