177.39 USD
52-Week Range
$86.62
$212.19
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$202.51
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+14.2%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$268.22(56 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on NVDA. Key driver: Dominant position in AI/data center accelerated computing infrastructure with... AI consensus estimate 202.51 14.2% above the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 268.22 (AI -24.5%).Bear Case (min)
$174.34
-1.7%
Base Case (median)
$202.51
+14.2%
Bull Case (max)
$174.34
-1.7%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Loading...
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:202.51→202.51(+0.0%)
CAGR+3.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
MARG+1.0pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
WACC+0.3pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stablespot-price-up-marginally
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE⚖
DCF 174.34 → Cal. 202.51
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~100% (FY2023–FY2026: $27B to $216B) driven by exp…
- Dominant market position in AI accelerator hardware (Blackwell architecture, …
- Trailing EBIT margin of 60.4% reflects extraordinary pricing power and operat…
Top Risk
- Hyper-growth deceleration risk: sustaining 21%+ CAGR over 5 years from a $216B revenue …
- Competitive intensity rising: AMD MI300X/MI400 series, Intel Gaudi, Google TPUs, AWS Tr…
- Geopolitical and export control risk: US restrictions on chip exports to China (histori…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stablespot-price-up-marginally
DEEPSEEK⚖
DCF 174.34 → Cal. 202.51
Key Drivers
- Dominant position in AI/data center accelerated computing infrastructure with…
- Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of 73.2% (1-year), indica…
- High trailing EBIT margin of 60.4% demonstrates pricing power and operational…
Top Risk
- High beta (2.38) indicates significant volatility and sensitivity to market sentiment a…
- Future growth contingent on sustained AI investment cycle by enterprises and cloud prov…
- Competitive intensity from other semiconductor designers (AMD, Intel) and potential in-…
Delta
CAGR+3.0pp
MARG+1.0pp
WACC+0.3pp
data refreshgrowth adjustmentmargin refinement
GEMINI⚖
DCF 174.34 → Cal. 202.51
Key Drivers
- Continued strong demand for AI infrastructure and accelerated computing solut…
- NVIDIA's dominant market position in AI GPUs and its expanding software ecosy…
- Expansion into new high-growth markets such as automotive AI, enterprise AI s…
Top Risk
- Intense and increasing competition in the semiconductor and AI hardware/software market…
- Potential cyclicality of the semiconductor industry, which could lead to fluctuations i…
- Geopolitical tensions and trade policies that could disrupt global supply chains, restr…
Delta
No change
no change
GPT⚖
DCF 174.34 → Cal. 202.51
Key Drivers
- Strong growth in AI and data center markets.
- High demand for NVIDIA GPUs in gaming and professional markets.
- Strategic partnerships enhancing technology offerings.
Top Risk
- Market competition from other semiconductor manufacturers.
- Potential regulatory challenges in AI applications.
- Dependence on specific sectors for revenue growth.
Delta
No previous data
updateassumptions
GROK⚖
DCF 174.34 → Cal. 202.51
Key Drivers
- Exceptional historical revenue growth (100% CAGR 2023-2026) driven by AI and …
- Strong EBIT margin (60.4% trailing) expected to remain elevated due to leader…
- Continued expansion in Compute & Networking segment with AI and automotive so…
Top Risk
- High valuation multiples (P/E 35.9x, EV/EBITDA 32.0x) indicate potential overvaluation …
- Intense competition in AI and GPU markets could pressure margins.
- Macroeconomic slowdown may impact demand for high-end tech solutions.
Delta
CAGR-3.0pp
MARG-1.0pp
stable assumptionsminor update
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 21.0% | 31.0% +3.0pp | 38.0% | 9.0% | 25.0% -3.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 57.0% | 59.0% +1.0pp | 58.0% | 65.0% | 58.0% -1.0pp |
| WACC | 11.5% | 12.5% +0.3pp | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin60.4%
EBITDA Margin61.7%
ROE76.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.4x
P/E Trailing35.9x
EV / EBITDA32.0x
P/B27.4x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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