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AI model estimates for NVIDIA Corporation vs spot price
2026-07-10🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
202.78 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$161.61
$236.54
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate NVDA median target $174.94 (-13.7% vs spot $202.78, model agreement 0.73). Analyst consensus $301.62 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$174.94
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-13.7%
Agreement
0.735/5 models
Raw 0.59
Dispersion
σ 12.2%
Analyst consensus
$301.62(58 analysts)
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are negative on NVDA. Key concern: Intensifying competition from other semiconductor companies and custom ASIC d... AI consensus estimate 174.94 13.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.73). Analyst consensus: 301.62 (AI -42.0%).Bear Case (min)
$120.65
-40.5%
Base Case (median)
$174.94
-13.7%
Bull Case (max)
$191.16
-5.7%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:174.94→174.94(+0.0%)
stable×2no-changeassumptions-stable
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for NVDA moved from $218.62 to $174.94 (-20.0%); median WACC 11.5% → 11.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 6.9% → 12.2%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $218.62 | $174.94 | -20.0% |
| Median WACC | 11.50% | 11.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 30.0% | 20.0% | -10.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 55.0% | 53.0% | -2.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 6.9% | 12.2% | +5.25 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 191.16 → Cal. 224.30
Key Drivers
- Dominant position in the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure and accelerated …
- Continued high demand from hyperscale cloud providers and data centers for AI…
- Strong innovation pipeline in GPU architecture and software platforms (CUDA e…
Top Risk
- Intensifying competition from other semiconductor companies and custom ASIC developers.
- Potential for a market correction or 'AI bubble' concerns impacting valuation multiples…
- Geopolitical tensions affecting global supply chains, manufacturing, and market access.
Delta
No change
DCF 187.75 → Cal. 221.91
Key Drivers
- AI data-center demand driving 85%+ near-term revenue growth
- Trailing EBIT margin 51.4% with ebitda margin 65.3% (yahoo derived)
- Historical revenue CAGR 100% (2023-2026) provides high base
Top Risk
- Beta 2.21 implies elevated systematic volatility
- Geopolitical/export restrictions on China sales
- Potential AI capex digestion after hyperscaler build-out
Delta
No previous data
no change
CLAUDE →ADJ
DCF 120.65 → Cal. 174.94
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~100% (2023–2026) driven by AI infrastructure supe…
- Data center accelerated computing dominance: NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU architect…
- Exceptional trailing EBIT margin of 51.4% and EBITDA margin of 65.3% reflect …
Top Risk
- Extreme beta (2.21) is well outside the CAPM-usable range (0.6–1.4), signaling high mar…
- DeepSeek and other large AI labs developing proprietary chips could erode NVIDIA's capt…
- Customer concentration: a handful of hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) rep…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stablewacc-stable
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
DCF 120.65 → Cal. 174.94
Key Drivers
- Dominant position in AI GPU and data center accelerated computing driving hyp…
- Hyperscaler capex remains elevated, supporting near-term demand for next-gen …
- Trailing EBIT margin of 51.4% reflects strong pricing power and operating lev…
Top Risk
- Geopolitical tensions (Taiwan/China) could disrupt supply chain or sales
- AI investment cycle may slow if ROI disappoints, leading to demand normalization
- Competition from AMD, Intel, and custom ASICs could erode market share and margins
Delta
No change
no changestable
GPT →ADJ
DCF 120.65 → Cal. 174.94
Key Drivers
- Strong demand for AI and data center solutions
- Investment in new technologies and product development
- Market position in gaming and automotive sectors
Top Risk
- Geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains
- High capital expenditure impacting margins
- Market volatility influencing sales forecasts
Delta
No previous data
stablepositive sentiment
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 20.0% | 15.0% | 70.0% | 10.0% | 32.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 48.0% | 55.0% | 53.0% | 54.0% | 52.0% |
| WACC | 13.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 20.0% | 24.5% | +4.5pp |
| WACC | 11.5% | 9.6% | -1.9pp |
Based on spot price $202.78 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin51.4%
EBITDA Margin65.3%
ROE101.5%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing30.8x
EV / EBITDA29.4x
P/B25.1x
Analyst Range180.00 – 500.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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