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AI model estimates for
Berkshire Hathaway B vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Pfinancials
479.98 USD
52-Week Range
$455.19
$516.85

5 AI models estimate BRK-B median target $514.06 (+7.1% vs spot $479.98, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $520.33 (3 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$514.06
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+7.1%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$520.33(3 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on BRK-B. Key driver: Highly diversified conglomerate with significant insurance, freight rail, and... AI consensus estimate 514.06 7.1% above the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 520.33 (AI -1.2%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokBRK-BBerkshire H…480.0spot520.3analysts475485495505515525
Bear Case (min)
$511.37
6.5%
Base Case (median)
$514.06
+7.1%
Bull Case (max)
$511.37
6.5%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:514.06→514.06(+0.0%)
CAGR
-0.5pp(1 ↓)
no change×2no-assumption-changeportfolio-rotation-noted

Model Breakdown

CLAUDE →
Est.
514.06
Gap
+7.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 511.37 → Cal. 514.06
Key Drivers
  • Berkshire's diversified conglomerate model spanning insurance (GEICO, Gen Re)…
  • Massive cash/investment portfolio (~$397B cash) generates substantial investm…
  • Forward revenue growth anchored at ~4.4% (analyst consensus 1Y), consistent w…
Top Risk
  • Catastrophic insurance loss events (hurricanes, earthquakes, cyber) could materially im…
  • BNSF railroad faces secular headwinds from intermodal competition and potential volume …
  • BHE utilities face ongoing wildfire liability exposure (California/Oregon) and large ca…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior day's baseline model. New headlines confirm continue…
No change
no-assumption-changeportfolio-rotation-notedgreg-abel-era
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
Est.
514.06
Gap
+7.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 511.37 → Cal. 514.06
Key Drivers
  • Diversified conglomerate with stable insurance float and regulated utility ea…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 20.6% driven by acquisitions and market gains; fut…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.3% reflects strong operating leverage; target marg…
Top Risk
  • Concentration in insurance and reinsurance exposes to catastrophic loss events
  • Regulatory changes in utilities and railroad operations could pressure margins
  • Succession risk as Warren Buffett steps back; new CEO strategy may diverge
Delta
No material change in assumptions; same model as yesterday.
No change
no change
GEMINI →
Est.
514.06
Gap
+7.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 511.37 → Cal. 514.06
Key Drivers
  • Highly diversified conglomerate with significant insurance, freight rail, and…
  • Strong financial position with substantial net cash, providing flexibility fo…
  • Analyst estimates suggest a moderation in near-term revenue growth from histo…
Top Risk
  • Exposure to cyclical economic downturns across its diverse business segments.
  • Potential for underperformance in investment portfolio due to market volatility.
  • Regulatory changes in the insurance and financial sectors could impact profitability.
Delta
All core valuation assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, reflecting a stable outlook.
No previous data
no change
GPT →
Est.
514.06
Gap
+7.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 511.37 → Cal. 514.06
Key Drivers
  • Strong diversification across various sectors.
  • Potential for margin improvement through operational efficiencies.
  • Presence in growth markets such as AI and renewables.
Top Risk
  • Economic downturns impacting earnings.
  • Regulatory changes affecting insurance and utility sectors.
  • Increasing competition in financial and utility markets.
Delta
Assumptions remain stable based on recent performance and outlook.
No previous data
stableno change
GROK →
Est.
514.06
Gap
+7.1%
Conf
0.65
DCF 511.37 → Cal. 514.06
Key Drivers
  • Diversified insurance float and investment portfolio
  • Low beta of 0.62 supports below-sector WACC
  • Historical revenue jump in 2023 provides base but future growth moderates to …
Top Risk
  • Underwriting cycle volatility in insurance operations
  • Equity market exposure through investment portfolio
  • Succession and capital allocation uncertainty post-Buffett
Delta
Minor downward adjustment to revenue CAGR reflecting moderated growth outlook; all other assumptions unchanged.
CAGR
-0.5pp
minor adjustment

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y5.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%4.5%
-0.5pp
ROE Target11.0%13.0%12.0%10.0%12.0%
WACC10.0%10.0%10.5%9.5%10.5%
Terminal Growth2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin23.3%
EBITDA Margin31.4%
ROE10.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA-2.3x
P/E Trailing14.3x
EV / EBITDA6.5x
P/B0.0x
Analyst Range– – –
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the insurance, freight rail transportation, and utility businesses. The company provides property, casualty, life, accident, and health insurance and reinsurance; operates railroad systems in North America; generates, transmits, stores, and distributes electricity from natural gas, coal, wind, solar, hydroelectric, nuclear, and geothermal sources; operates natural gas distribution and storage facilities, interstate pipelines, liquefied natural gas facilities, and compressor and meter stations; and holds interest in coal mining assets. It manufactures boxed chocolates and other confectionery products; specialty chemicals, metal cutting tools, and components for aerospace and power generation applications; prefabricated and site-built residential homes, flooring products; insulation, roofing, and engineered products; building and engineered components; paints and coatings; and bricks and masonry products, as well as offers manufactured and site-built home construction, and related lending and financial services. In addition, the company provides recreational vehicles, apparel, footwear, toys, jewelry, custom picture
Source: Yahoo Finance

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