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AI model estimates for Berkshire Hathaway B vs spot price
2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Pfinancials
503.70 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$464.01
$537.74
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate BRK-B median target $532.62 (+5.7% vs spot $503.70, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $547.67 (3 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$532.62
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+5.7%
Agreement
1.005/5 models
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.0%
Analyst consensus
$547.67(3 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$537.13
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on BRK-B. Key driver: Massive cash reserves of approximately $365.5 billion provide unparalleled li... AI consensus estimate 532.62 5.7% above the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 547.67 (AI -2.7%).Bear Case (min)
$532.62
5.7%
Base Case (median)
$532.62
+5.7%
Bull Case (max)
$532.62
5.7%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:532.62→532.62(+0.0%)
CAGR+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-assumption-changecapital-allocation-updateleadership-transition-watch
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for BRK-B moved from $532.62 to $532.62 (+0.0%); median WACC 7.5% → 7.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 0.0% → 0.0%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $532.62 | $532.62 | +0.0% |
| Median WACC | 7.50% | 7.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 23.0% | 23.5% | +0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.00 pp |
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE →ADJ
DCF 532.62 → Cal. 537.13
Key Drivers
- Massive cash and investment portfolio (~$365B cash + large equity holdings in…
- Insurance float model (GEICO, Gen Re, BHRG) provides low-cost capital; improv…
- BNSF railroad and BHE utilities provide stable, regulated/quasi-regulated cas…
Top Risk
- Equity portfolio concentration risk: large positions in Apple, Alphabet, Bank of Americ…
- Leadership transition risk: Greg Abel's deal-making style differs from Buffett's; capit…
- Interest rate sensitivity: declining rates would compress investment income on the mass…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changecapital-allocation-updateleadership-transition-watch
DEEPSEEK →ADJ
DCF 532.62 → Cal. 537.13
Key Drivers
- Diversified earnings from insurance, freight rail, utilities, and manufacturi…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 22.8% anchors a target margin of 24%, assuming modest…
- Net cash balance sheet with net debt/EBITDA of -1.81 reduces financial risk a…
Top Risk
- Property/casualty underwriting results can be affected by catastrophe losses and insura…
- The equity portfolio can add volatility to reported earnings and book value.
- Freight rail, utility, and manufacturing segments are sensitive to economic cycles and …
Delta
No change
no-changebaselinestable
GEMINI →ADJ
DCF 532.62 → Cal. 537.13
Key Drivers
- Massive cash reserves of approximately $365.5 billion provide unparalleled li…
- Strong underwriting performance and float generation within core insurance op…
- Highly diversified earnings stream spanning regulated utilities, freight rail…
Top Risk
- Succession and key-person risk associated with the eventual transition of top-level inv…
- Capital drag from the immense cash balance if attractive, high-return investment opport…
- Exposure to severe catastrophe losses within the reinsurance and property-casualty insu…
Delta
No change
stable outlookconglomerateinsurance
GPT →ADJ
DCF 532.62 → Cal. 537.13
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin of 22.8% is a solid anchor for a steady-state target nea…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 20.6% is unusually high for a mature conglomerate,…
- Low beta of 0.607 supports a relatively low discount rate under CAPM.
Top Risk
- Revenue can be lumpy because results depend on insurance underwriting, investment incom…
- A very large cash balance can dilute near-term returns if deployment opportunities rema…
- Regulated utility and insurance operations face rate-setting, catastrophe, and reserve …
Delta
CAGR+1.0pp
WACC+0.5pp
fresh viewlow betacash rich
GROK →ADJ
DCF 532.62 → Cal. 537.13
Key Drivers
- Diversified insurance float and investment income
- Large cash reserves supporting opportunistic acquisitions
- Low beta defensive profile across insurance, rail and utilities
Top Risk
- Investment portfolio exposed to equity market swings
- Insurance underwriting cycles and catastrophe losses
- Regulatory and tax changes affecting holding company structure
Delta
No previous data
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% +1.0pp | 5.0% |
| ROE Target | 13.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 12.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% +0.5pp | 7.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin22.8%
EBITDA Margin34.0%
ROE12.0%
Net Debt / EBITDA-1.8x
P/E Trailing12.6x
EV / EBITDA6.4x
P/B0.0x
Analyst Range510.00 – 604.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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