9.85 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
8.64 €
10.39 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate SAMPO median target 6.51 € (-33.9% vs spot 9.85 €, model agreement 0.87). Analyst consensus 10.57 € (16 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
6.51 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-33.9%
Agreement
0.875/5 models
Raw 0.87shrinkage-induced
Dispersion
σ 5.1%
Analyst consensus
10.57 €(16 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
7.73 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on SAMPO. Key concern: Increased frequency or severity of weather-related claims in the Nordic region. AI consensus estimate 6.51 33.9% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.87). Analyst consensus: 10.57 (AI -38.4%).Bear Case (min)
6.07 €
-38.4%
Base Case (median)
6.51 €
-33.9%
Bull Case (max)
6.83 €
-30.7%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:6.51→6.51(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for SAMPO moved from 6.53 € to 6.51 € (-0.4%); median WACC 11.0% → 10.5% (-0.50 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 2.9% → 5.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 6.53 € | 6.51 € | -0.4% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 10.50% | -0.50 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 6.0% | 5.5% | -0.50 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 24.0% | 24.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 2.9% | 5.1% | +2.17 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 6.83 → Cal. 7.95
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 10.3% (2022-2025) moderating to sustainable mid-singl…
- Trailing EBIT margin 23% supports steady-state target of 25%
- Low beta 0.24 implies lower cost of equity; Nordic insurance sector WACC anch…
Top Risk
- Insurance combined ratio pressure from claims inflation or weather events
- Low beta may understate financial-sector systemic risks
- Nordic regulatory or tax changes could compress margins
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 6.82 → Cal. 7.95
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022–2025) driven by strong premium growth …
- Q2 2026 earnings call highlighted strong growth and a raised full-year outloo…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 23.0% is solid for a non-life insurer; steady-state t…
Top Risk
- Catastrophe and weather-related claims volatility could compress combined ratio and und…
- Hastings (UK) faces a competitive motor insurance market and regulatory scrutiny; UK op…
- Interest rate sensitivity: investment income benefits from higher rates, but a rate rev…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
DCF 6.51 → Cal. 7.73
Key Drivers
- Diversified Nordic and UK non-life insurance platform across If, Topdanmark a…
- Historical 2022-2025 revenue CAGR of ~10% was supported by portfolio expansio…
- Trailing EBIT margin near 23% and ROE near 21% indicate disciplined underwrit…
Top Risk
- Claims inflation in motor, property or casualty lines could pressure the combined ratio…
- Large Nordic or UK weather/catastrophe losses can cause material quarterly earnings vol…
- Investment market and interest-rate swings affect insurance investment income and solve…
Delta
No change
assumptions unchangedyahoo data confirmedsector anchor used
DCF 6.11 → Cal. 7.45
Key Drivers
- Resilient premium growth in core Nordic Private and Commercial segments suppo…
- Synergies and operational efficiencies from the integration of Topdanmark.
- Strong underwriting discipline maintaining a favorable combined ratio below h…
Top Risk
- Increased frequency or severity of weather-related claims in the Nordic region.
- Claims inflation outpacing premium rate increases, particularly in motor and property l…
- Intense pricing competition in the UK digital insurance market (Hastings).
Delta
No change
stable outlookno change
DCF 6.07 → Cal. 7.42
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022-2025) is strong, but a mature Nordic i…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 23.0% supports a steady-state target slightly above h…
- Very low beta of 0.238 points to a lower equity risk profile, but as a financ…
Top Risk
- Insurance pricing and claims inflation could pressure underwriting margins.
- Investment income and market conditions can affect earnings and capital generation.
- Competition in Nordic and UK insurance markets may limit premium growth.
Delta
No change
fresh baselineinsuranceconservative growth
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| ROE Target | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 18.0% |
| WACC | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin23.0%
EBITDA Margin22.3%
ROE21.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA-6.4x
P/E Trailing15.2x
EV / EBITDA4.3x
P/B3.2x
Analyst Range9.51 – 11.50
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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