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SAMPOSampo Oyj

📅 2026-04-03🇫🇮 OMXHfinancials
9.25 EUR
52-Week Range
7.92 €
10.39 €

AI Consensus

Model estimate
8.39 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-9.3%
Agreement
0.825/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
10.54 €(14 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on SAMPO. Key concern: Valuation discount and earnings risks highlighted in recent news headlines ma... AI consensus estimate 8.39 9.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 10.54 (AI -20.4%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokSAMPOSampo Oyj9.3spot10.5analysts7.247.978.709.4310.210.9
Bear Case (min)
6.32 €
-31.7%
Base Case (median)
8.39 €
-9.3%
Bull Case (max)
8.85 €
-4.3%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:8.398.39(+0.0%)
CAGR
+4.0pp(2 ↑)
ROE
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-unchanged
Model Breakdown
GROK
Est.
9.36
Gap
+1.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 8.85Cal. 9.36
Key Drivers
  • Strong historical revenue growth (10.3% CAGR 2022-2025) supports a moderated …
  • Geographic diversification across Nordic and UK markets offers resilience and…
  • EBIT margin target of 24% reflects slight improvement over trailing 23% due t…
Top Risk
  • Regulatory changes in multiple operating regions could impact profitability.
  • Economic slowdown in key markets like Finland and the UK may reduce insurance demand.
  • Competitive pressure in non-life insurance could compress margins.
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, with no significant changes in outlook or data inputs.
No change
no changestable outlook
GPT
Est.
8.95
Gap
-3.3%
Conf
0.80
DCF 8.27Cal. 8.95
Key Drivers
  • Expansion of non-life insurance products
  • Investment in digital solutions
  • Sustained demand in Nordic regions
Top Risk
  • Economic downturn affecting premiums
  • Regulatory changes in insurance sector
  • Competition from new entrants
Delta
No significant changes have been made to the assumptions since the previous analysis.
No previous data
stabilityno update
GEMINI
Est.
8.39
Gap
-9.3%
Conf
0.85
DCF 7.47Cal. 8.39
Key Drivers
  • Strong historical revenue growth (10.3% CAGR 2022-2025) and robust analyst 1-…
  • Strategic advancements highlighted in Q4 2025 earnings call indicate potentia…
  • Low beta (0.267) suggests a lower risk profile compared to the broader market…
Top Risk
  • Valuation discount and earnings risks highlighted in recent news headlines may persist.
  • Mixed longer-term returns and share price performance indicate potential volatility and…
  • Potential for moderation in current high growth rates as the company matures or faces i…
Delta
The 5-year revenue CAGR has been adjusted upwards to better reflect the strong analyst 1-year growth estimates and re…
CAGR
+4.0pp
growth outlook adjusted
CLAUDE
Est.
8.03
Gap
-13.2%
Conf
0.73
DCF 6.96Cal. 8.03
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022–2025: EUR 7.7B to EUR 10.3B) provides …
  • Analyst consensus projects ~21% revenue growth in the next 12 months, support…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.0% and EBITDA margin of 25.0% are consistent with …
Top Risk
  • Elevated 1Y EPS growth estimate (220%) reflects a low base or one-off items; normalizat…
  • Combined ratio sensitivity: catastrophe events, climate-related claims, or adverse rese…
  • UK motor insurance market (Hastings) faces competitive pricing pressure and regulatory …
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model run. All four core assumptions (WACC 10%, revenue CAGR 5Y 6.5%, EBIT…
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-unchanged
DEEPSEEK
Est.
7.59
Gap
-18.0%
Conf
0.75
DCF 6.32Cal. 7.59
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline, though…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 23.0% indicates strong profitability, with target mai…
  • Very low beta (0.27) suggests lower systematic risk relative to market, but W…
Top Risk
  • Insurance sector faces cyclical underwriting risks and potential for large claims impac…
  • Geographic diversification across multiple European markets exposes company to regional…
  • Analyst commentary highlights 'valuation discount and earnings risks' and potential exe…
Delta
Minor adjustments to assumptions based on updated data review, maintaining conservative stance while incorporating st…
CAGR
+0.5pp
ROE
+1.0pp
WACC
+1.0pp
data-updatecalibration-refinementwacc-adjustment

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y6.5%5.5%
+0.5pp
17.0%
+4.0pp
8.0%8.0%
ROE Target20.0%18.0%19.0%24.7%25.0%
WACC10.0%11.5%
+1.0pp
9.5%11.0%10.5%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin23.0%
EBITDA Margin25.0%
ROE24.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-5.5x
P/E Trailing12.3x
EV / EBITDA3.5x
P/B3.0x
Analyst Range

Recent News

Assessing Sampo (HLSE:SAMPO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Stability And Mixed Longer Term Returns2026-03-26
Insider Buying At Sampo Oyj Highlights Valuation Discount And Earnings Risks2026-02-14
Assessing Sampo (HLSE:SAMPO) Valuation After Recent Mixed Share Price Performance2026-02-14
Is It Time To Reassess Sampo Oyj (HLSE:SAMPO) After Recent Share Price Pullback?2026-02-08
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