9.25 EUR
52-Week Range
7.92 €
10.39 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
8.39 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-9.3%
Agreement
0.825/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
10.54 €(14 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on SAMPO. Key concern: Valuation discount and earnings risks highlighted in recent news headlines ma... AI consensus estimate 8.39 9.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 10.54 (AI -20.4%).Bear Case (min)
6.32 €
-31.7%
Base Case (median)
8.39 €
-9.3%
Bull Case (max)
8.85 €
-4.3%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:8.39→8.39(+0.0%)
CAGR+4.0pp(2 ↑)
ROE+1.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC+1.0pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-unchanged
Model Breakdown
GROK
DCF 8.85 → Cal. 9.36
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth (10.3% CAGR 2022-2025) supports a moderated …
- Geographic diversification across Nordic and UK markets offers resilience and…
- EBIT margin target of 24% reflects slight improvement over trailing 23% due t…
Top Risk
- Regulatory changes in multiple operating regions could impact profitability.
- Economic slowdown in key markets like Finland and the UK may reduce insurance demand.
- Competitive pressure in non-life insurance could compress margins.
Delta
No change
no changestable outlook
GPT
DCF 8.27 → Cal. 8.95
Key Drivers
- Expansion of non-life insurance products
- Investment in digital solutions
- Sustained demand in Nordic regions
Top Risk
- Economic downturn affecting premiums
- Regulatory changes in insurance sector
- Competition from new entrants
Delta
No previous data
stabilityno update
GEMINI
DCF 7.47 → Cal. 8.39
Key Drivers
- Strong historical revenue growth (10.3% CAGR 2022-2025) and robust analyst 1-…
- Strategic advancements highlighted in Q4 2025 earnings call indicate potentia…
- Low beta (0.267) suggests a lower risk profile compared to the broader market…
Top Risk
- Valuation discount and earnings risks highlighted in recent news headlines may persist.
- Mixed longer-term returns and share price performance indicate potential volatility and…
- Potential for moderation in current high growth rates as the company matures or faces i…
Delta
CAGR+4.0pp
growth outlook adjusted
CLAUDE
DCF 6.96 → Cal. 8.03
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022–2025: EUR 7.7B to EUR 10.3B) provides …
- Analyst consensus projects ~21% revenue growth in the next 12 months, support…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 23.0% and EBITDA margin of 25.0% are consistent with …
Top Risk
- Elevated 1Y EPS growth estimate (220%) reflects a low base or one-off items; normalizat…
- Combined ratio sensitivity: catastrophe events, climate-related claims, or adverse rese…
- UK motor insurance market (Hastings) faces competitive pricing pressure and regulatory …
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-unchanged
DEEPSEEK⚖
DCF 6.32 → Cal. 7.59
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 10.3% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline, though…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 23.0% indicates strong profitability, with target mai…
- Very low beta (0.27) suggests lower systematic risk relative to market, but W…
Top Risk
- Insurance sector faces cyclical underwriting risks and potential for large claims impac…
- Geographic diversification across multiple European markets exposes company to regional…
- Analyst commentary highlights 'valuation discount and earnings risks' and potential exe…
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
ROE+1.0pp
WACC+1.0pp
data-updatecalibration-refinementwacc-adjustment
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 6.5% | 5.5% +0.5pp | 17.0% +4.0pp | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| ROE Target | 20.0% | 18.0% | 19.0% | 24.7% | 25.0% |
| WACC | 10.0% | 11.5% +1.0pp | 9.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin23.0%
EBITDA Margin25.0%
ROE24.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-5.5x
P/E Trailing12.3x
EV / EBITDA3.5x
P/B3.0x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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