15.09 EUR
52-Week Range
7.49 €
17.91 €
AI Consensus
Model estimate
14.40 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-4.6%
Agreement
0.855/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.06
Analyst consensus
17.01 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on METSO. Key concern: The industrial sector, particularly mining and construction, is subject to cy... AI consensus estimate 14.40 4.6% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.85). Analyst consensus: 17.01 (AI -15.3%).Bear Case (min)
11.02 €
-27.0%
Base Case (median)
14.40 €
-4.6%
Bull Case (max)
14.76 €
-2.2%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
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What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:14.40→14.40(+0.0%)
CAGR-0.2pp(1 ↓)
MARG-0.3pp(1 ↓)
WACC+0.1pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-nudge-up
Model Breakdown
GEMINI
DCF 14.76 → Cal. 15.43
Key Drivers
- Recent significant contract wins (e.g., Tia Maria, Blackwater Mine, Lumwana, …
- Metso's comprehensive portfolio of technologies and services for aggregates, …
- The company's global presence across Europe, Americas, Asia Pacific, and othe…
Top Risk
- The industrial sector, particularly mining and construction, is subject to cyclical dem…
- Geopolitical instability, trade policies, and supply chain disruptions could impact Met…
- Intense competition in the industrial equipment and services market may pressure margin…
Delta
No change
no change
GROK
DCF 13.79 → Cal. 14.76
Key Drivers
- Recent contracts for major mining projects (e.g., Tia Maria, Blackwater Mine)…
- Revenue CAGR of 6% reflects industry tailwinds in mining and aggregates, abov…
- EBIT margin target of 14.5% assumes slight improvement over trailing 13.8% du…
Top Risk
- Cyclical nature of industrials may lead to revenue fluctuations during economic slowdowns.
- Net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.28 could limit financial flexibility in adverse conditions.
- Geopolitical instability in key markets like Africa and the Middle East may impact oper…
Delta
No change
stable assumptionsconsistent outlook
CLAUDE
DCF 13.28 → Cal. 14.40
Key Drivers
- Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth estimate of 13.4% signals meaningful near…
- Critical minerals and energy transition tailwinds — copper, graphite, gold pr…
- High-margin aftermarket services (spare and wear parts, mill liners, screenin…
Top Risk
- Earnings growth consensus of -36.8% for 1Y reflects near-term EPS headwinds; margin pre…
- Cyclical exposure to mining capex: a commodity price downturn or tightening credit cond…
- Historical revenue CAGR of only 1.8% (2022–2025) reflects prior cycle weakness; sustain…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-nudge-up
GPT
DCF 13.18 → Cal. 14.33
Key Drivers
- Expansion in aggregates and minerals segments
- Strong order backlog in mining equipment
- Increasing sustainability partnerships
Top Risk
- Cyclical nature of industrial demand
- Potential supply chain disruptions
- Fluctuations in raw material costs
Delta
No change
valuationassumptions
DEEPSEEK
DCF 11.02 → Cal. 12.81
Key Drivers
- Multiple recent contract wins (Tia Maria, Blackwater Mine, Eva Copper, Nouvea…
- Analyst consensus projects 13.4% revenue growth for next year, indicating str…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 13.8% provides solid base; target margin reflects sli…
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to mining and construction capital expenditure, which can be volatile…
- High net debt to EBITDA (1.28x) could limit financial flexibility in a downturn.
- Recent earnings growth estimate is negative (-36.8%), indicating potential near-term pr…
Delta
CAGR-0.2pp
MARG-0.3pp
WACC+0.1pp
updated spotnew contractswacc adjustment
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.5% | 4.0% -0.2pp | 8.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.5% | 13.5% -0.3pp | 14.0% | 15.0% | 14.5% |
| WACC | 8.7% | 8.8% +0.1pp | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin13.8%
EBITDA Margin16.4%
ROE18.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing25.9x
EV / EBITDA15.8x
P/B4.7x
Analyst Range– – –
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-04-03
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