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METSOMetso Oyj

📅 2026-04-03🇫🇮 OMXHindustrials
15.09 EUR
52-Week Range
7.49 €
17.91 €

AI Consensus

Model estimate
14.40 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-4.6%
Agreement
0.855/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.06
Analyst consensus
17.01 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on METSO. Key concern: The industrial sector, particularly mining and construction, is subject to cy... AI consensus estimate 14.40 4.6% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.85). Analyst consensus: 17.01 (AI -15.3%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokMETSOMetso Oyj15.1spot17.0analysts12.313.314.415.416.517.5
Bear Case (min)
11.02 €
-27.0%
Base Case (median)
14.40 €
-4.6%
Bull Case (max)
14.76 €
-2.2%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:14.4014.40(+0.0%)
CAGR
-0.2pp(1 ↓)
MARG
-0.3pp(1 ↓)
WACC
+0.1pp(1 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-nudge-up
Model Breakdown
GEMINI
Est.
15.43
Gap
+2.3%
Conf
0.80
DCF 14.76Cal. 15.43
Key Drivers
  • Recent significant contract wins (e.g., Tia Maria, Blackwater Mine, Lumwana, …
  • Metso's comprehensive portfolio of technologies and services for aggregates, …
  • The company's global presence across Europe, Americas, Asia Pacific, and othe…
Top Risk
  • The industrial sector, particularly mining and construction, is subject to cyclical dem…
  • Geopolitical instability, trade policies, and supply chain disruptions could impact Met…
  • Intense competition in the industrial equipment and services market may pressure margin…
Delta
No significant changes in key valuation assumptions since yesterday.
No change
no change
GROK
Est.
14.76
Gap
-2.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 13.79Cal. 14.76
Key Drivers
  • Recent contracts for major mining projects (e.g., Tia Maria, Blackwater Mine)…
  • Revenue CAGR of 6% reflects industry tailwinds in mining and aggregates, abov…
  • EBIT margin target of 14.5% assumes slight improvement over trailing 13.8% du…
Top Risk
  • Cyclical nature of industrials may lead to revenue fluctuations during economic slowdowns.
  • Net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.28 could limit financial flexibility in adverse conditions.
  • Geopolitical instability in key markets like Africa and the Middle East may impact oper…
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with yesterday's model, with no significant changes in key inputs due to stable recent …
No change
stable assumptionsconsistent outlook
CLAUDE
Est.
14.40
Gap
-4.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 13.28Cal. 14.40
Key Drivers
  • Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth estimate of 13.4% signals meaningful near…
  • Critical minerals and energy transition tailwinds — copper, graphite, gold pr…
  • High-margin aftermarket services (spare and wear parts, mill liners, screenin…
Top Risk
  • Earnings growth consensus of -36.8% for 1Y reflects near-term EPS headwinds; margin pre…
  • Cyclical exposure to mining capex: a commodity price downturn or tightening credit cond…
  • Historical revenue CAGR of only 1.8% (2022–2025) reflects prior cycle weakness; sustain…
Delta
Assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's baseline; all four core inputs (WACC 8.7%, revenue CAGR 5.5%, EBIT margin …
No change
no-changeassumptions-stableconfidence-nudge-up
GPT
Est.
14.33
Gap
-5.0%
Conf
0.70
DCF 13.18Cal. 14.33
Key Drivers
  • Expansion in aggregates and minerals segments
  • Strong order backlog in mining equipment
  • Increasing sustainability partnerships
Top Risk
  • Cyclical nature of industrial demand
  • Potential supply chain disruptions
  • Fluctuations in raw material costs
Delta
Valuation assumptions remain stable, reflecting modest growth prospects and recovery in margins.
No change
valuationassumptions
DEEPSEEK
Est.
12.81
Gap
-15.1%
Conf
0.75
DCF 11.02Cal. 12.81
Key Drivers
  • Multiple recent contract wins (Tia Maria, Blackwater Mine, Eva Copper, Nouvea…
  • Analyst consensus projects 13.4% revenue growth for next year, indicating str…
  • Trailing EBIT margin of 13.8% provides solid base; target margin reflects sli…
Top Risk
  • Cyclical exposure to mining and construction capital expenditure, which can be volatile…
  • High net debt to EBITDA (1.28x) could limit financial flexibility in a downturn.
  • Recent earnings growth estimate is negative (-36.8%), indicating potential near-term pr…
Delta
Updated to reflect current spot price and additional contract news (Tia Maria project), with slight adjustments to re…
CAGR
-0.2pp
MARG
-0.3pp
WACC
+0.1pp
updated spotnew contractswacc adjustment

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y5.5%4.0%
-0.2pp
8.0%5.0%6.0%
EBIT Margin Target14.5%13.5%
-0.3pp
14.0%15.0%14.5%
WACC8.7%8.8%
+0.1pp
9.0%8.7%8.7%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin13.8%
EBITDA Margin16.4%
ROE18.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing25.9x
EV / EBITDA15.8x
P/B4.7x
Analyst Range

Recent News

Metso secures contract for Tia Maria project in Peru2026-03-30
European Equities: 3 Stocks That May Be Priced Below Intrinsic Estimates2026-03-27
Assessing Metso Oyj (HLSE:METSO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness2026-03-08
Metso to supply equipment for Blackwater Mine phase two project in Canada2026-03-06
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