15.25 EUR
52-Week Range
10.09 €
17.91 €
5 AI models estimate METSO median target 13.14 € (-13.8% vs spot 15.25 €, model agreement 0.91). Analyst consensus 16.93 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
13.14 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-13.8%
Agreement
0.915/5 models
Raw 0.86
Dispersion
σ 0.03
Analyst consensus
16.93 €(19 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on METSO. Key concern: Economic fluctuations impacting capital investment in industrials. AI consensus estimate 13.14 13.8% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.91). Analyst consensus: 16.93 (AI -22.4%).Bear Case (min)
11.21 €
-26.5%
Base Case (median)
13.14 €
-13.8%
Bull Case (max)
12.68 €
-16.8%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:13.91→13.14(-5.5%)
CAGR+0.1pp(1 ↑)
no-assumption-changestable-outlookconfidence-stable
Model Breakdown
DCF 12.68 → Cal. 13.95
Key Drivers
- Robust order backlog indicates strong near-term revenue visibility.
- Recent contracts show growing demand in aggregates and minerals processing.
- Strategic investments expected to enhance operational efficiency.
Top Risk
- Economic fluctuations impacting capital investment in industrials.
- Competition affecting pricing and market share.
- Supply chain disruptions could impact production timelines.
Delta
No previous data
valuationmetsoassumptions
DCF 12.62 → Cal. 13.91
Key Drivers
- Structural demand for copper, gold, and critical minerals driven by energy tr…
- High-margin aftermarket services (spare/wear parts, digital twins, automation…
- Analyst consensus projects 3.3% revenue growth in next 12 months and 7% EPS g…
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of mining and aggregates capex: a downturn in commodity prices or mining in…
- Geopolitical and trade risks in key markets (South America, Africa, Greater China) coul…
- Currency exposure: revenues and costs span multiple currencies; EUR strength vs USD and…
Delta
No change
no-assumption-changestable-outlookconfidence-stable
DCF 11.51 → Cal. 13.14
Key Drivers
- Large mining project orders (Tia Maria, Blackwater, Eva Copper) provide multi…
- Minerals segment benefits from global mining capex cycle driven by copper and…
- Service and aftermarket business offers recurring revenue and margin stability
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to mining and construction end markets; downturn could reduce revenue…
- Commodity price volatility may delay or cancel mining project orders
- Geopolitical risks in Peru, Chile, and other emerging markets where projects are located
Delta
No change
no change
DCF 11.38 → Cal. 13.05
Key Drivers
- Strong demand for minerals processing and aggregates equipment, evidenced by …
- High trailing EBIT margin, indicating efficient operations and a valuable ser…
- Global presence across diverse geographies, providing a diversified revenue b…
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of the mining and construction industries, which can impact equipment and s…
- Geopolitical risks and economic downturns affecting global project development and supp…
- Volatility in commodity prices, which can influence customer investment decisions in ne…
Delta
No previous data
no previous data
DCF 11.21 → Cal. 12.93
Key Drivers
- New project contracts (Tia Maria, Blackwater, Eva Copper) support near-term v…
- Historical revenue CAGR 1.8% (2022-2025) with analyst 1Y revenue growth est. …
- Trailing EBIT margin 13.7% within sector norms; target assumes modest expansion
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to mining and construction end-markets
- Commodity price and capex cycle volatility
- Execution risk on large multi-year equipment projects
Delta
CAGR+0.1pp
stable outlookminor revision
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% +0.1pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.5% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% |
| WACC | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.3% | 8.0% | +3.7pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.0% | 19.0% | +5.0pp |
| WACC | 8.8% | 7.3% | -1.5pp |
Based on spot price 15.25 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin13.7%
EBITDA Margin16.3%
ROE18.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.3x
P/E Trailing26.2x
EV / EBITDA16.0x
P/B4.5x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-22
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