18.28 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
10.91 €
18.58 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate METSO median target 15.40 € (-15.7% vs spot 18.28 €, model agreement 0.92). Analyst consensus 17.58 € (19 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
15.40 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-15.7%
Agreement
0.925/5 models
Raw 0.92
Dispersion
σ 2.9%
Analyst consensus
17.58 €(19 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
16.05 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on METSO. Key concern: Cyclicality of global mining and construction industries which directly impac... AI consensus estimate 15.40 15.7% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.92). Analyst consensus: 17.58 (AI -12.4%).Bear Case (min)
14.67 €
-19.8%
Base Case (median)
15.40 €
-15.7%
Bull Case (max)
16.01 €
-12.4%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:15.40→15.40(+0.0%)
no-changeassumption-stableacquisition-monitoring
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for METSO moved from 14.67 € to 15.40 € (+5.0%); median WACC 8.5% → 8.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 6.9% → 2.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 14.67 € | 15.40 € | +5.0% |
| Median WACC | 8.50% | 8.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.0% | 5.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 14.0% | 14.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 6.9% | 2.9% | -4.03 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 16.01 → Cal. 16.48
Key Drivers
- Recurring aftermarket parts and services revenue from a large installed base …
- Recent contract wins and project awards in mining and aggregates add near-ter…
- Energy transition and battery minerals demand support longer-term demand for …
Top Risk
- Revenue is exposed to mining and aggregates capital-expenditure cycles, which can cause…
- Large project execution delays or customer postponements could reduce near-term sales.
- Commodity price volatility may prompt miners to defer or scale back investment decisions.
Delta
No change
no changeassumptions unchanged
DCF 15.47 → Cal. 16.10
Key Drivers
- Critical minerals supercycle (copper, lithium, nickel) driving long-cycle equ…
- High aftermarket and services mix (~50%+ of revenue) provides recurring, high…
- Analyst consensus 1Y revenue growth of 6.1% and EPS growth of 87.5% suggest n…
Top Risk
- Mining capex is highly cyclical; a commodity price downturn (copper, lithium, iron ore)…
- Revenue concentration in large project contracts creates lumpiness and potential order …
- Beta of 1.21 reflects above-market cyclicality; macro slowdown or China demand weakness…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumption-stableacquisition-monitoring
DCF 15.40 → Cal. 16.05
Key Drivers
- Secular demand for minerals processing and metals refining equipment driven b…
- High-margin aftermarket services, spare parts, and wear parts providing a res…
- Technological differentiation, including new proprietary lithium carbonate pr…
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of global mining and construction industries which directly impacts custome…
- Geopolitical and operational risks in key mining jurisdictions across South America, Af…
- Potential margin pressure from raw material inflation and supply chain bottlenecks.
Delta
No change
stable outlookreiteration
DCF 15.14 → Cal. 15.87
Key Drivers
- Trailing EBIT margin is 13.5%, so a mid-teens steady-state target assumes mod…
- Historical revenue CAGR is only 1.8%, but analyst 1-year revenue growth of 6.…
- Beta of 1.209 with Finland-style CAPM inputs implies a cost of equity near 8.…
Top Risk
- Industrial end markets remain cyclical, so revenue growth can slow if aggregates or min…
- Project-based demand can create uneven quarterly revenue and backlog conversion.
- Forward valuation multiples are elevated versus trailing earnings, leaving less room fo…
Delta
No change
no changebaseline maintained
DCF 14.67 → Cal. 15.54
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 1.8% (2022-2025) with recent contract wins and acquis…
- Trailing EBIT margin 13.5% within typical industrials range; steady-state tar…
- Beta 1.21 anchors WACC at 8.5% via CAPM (3% Rf + 1.21*4.5% ERP)
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to mining and aggregates end-markets
- Net debt/EBITDA 1.41 introduces moderate leverage sensitivity
- Commodity price and FX volatility affecting customer capex cycles
Delta
No previous data
stablenews-positive
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.5% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% |
| WACC | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 5.0% | 9.5% | +4.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 14.0% | 21.4% | +7.4pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 6.8% | -1.7pp |
Based on spot price 18.28 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin13.5%
EBITDA Margin16.2%
ROE18.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA1.4x
P/E Trailing30.2x
EV / EBITDA18.8x
P/B5.8x
Analyst Range13.50 – 21.50
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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