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AI model estimates for Meta Platforms Inc. vs spot price
2026-08-28🇺🇸 S&Ptechnology
571.10 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$520.26
$790.80
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate META median target $790.58 (+38.4% vs spot $571.10, model agreement 0.66). Analyst consensus $754.72 (57 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$790.58
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+38.4%
Agreement
0.665/5 models
Raw 0.66
Dispersion
σ 17.2%
Analyst consensus
$754.72(57 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$779.82
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on META. Key driver: AI-Driven Ad Optimization: Integration of Meta AI across Instagram, Facebook,... AI consensus estimate 790.58 38.4% above the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.66). Analyst consensus: 754.72 (AI +4.8%).Bear Case (min)
$504.97
-11.6%
Base Case (median)
$790.58
+38.4%
Bull Case (max)
$881.02
54.3%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:790.58→790.58(+0.0%)
CAGR-2.0pp(1 ↓)
MARG-1.0pp(1 ↓)
no-change×2stable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for META moved from $827.50 to $790.58 (-4.5%); median WACC 10.5% → 10.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.6% → 17.2%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $827.50 | $790.58 | -4.5% |
| Median WACC | 10.50% | 10.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 15.0% | 14.0% | -1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 38.0% | 37.0% | -1.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 10.6% | 17.2% | +6.65 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 881.02 → Cal. 843.13
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of ~19.9% (2022–2025) provides a strong anchor; moder…
- AI integration across Family of Apps (Meta AI assistant, Llama models, Advant…
- Reels monetization on Instagram and Facebook remains a structural tailwind; W…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and legal risk: the ~$18B child-safety settlement (Yahoo Finance, 2026-08-28…
- Capex intensity at ~30.5% of revenue compresses near-term free cash flow and raises exe…
- Reality Labs segment continues to generate significant operating losses with an uncerta…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
DCF 821.36 → Cal. 801.37
Key Drivers
- AI-Driven Ad Optimization: Integration of Meta AI across Instagram, Facebook,…
- Robust Core Advertising Revenue: Strong monetization of Reels and click-to-me…
- Elevated Capital Expenditure: Substantial infrastructure investments (capex a…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and Legal Challenges: The massive $18 billion settlement over child-safety c…
- Monetization Timeline of AI: Risk of delayed or lower-than-expected returns on massive …
- Intense Social Media Competition: Persistent competition for user attention and short-f…
Delta
No change
stable outlookregulatory settlement
DCF 790.58 → Cal. 779.82
Key Drivers
- Advertising demand remains resilient, with AI-driven targeting, ranking, and …
- Family of Apps operating leverage should help sustain EBIT margins near curre…
- The reported $18 billion child-safety settlement adds regulatory cost uncerta…
Top Risk
- Regulatory and litigation exposure remains elevated, including the reported $18 billion…
- Sustained high capex into AI infrastructure and Reality Labs may pressure near-term EBI…
- Digital advertising is cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-steady
DCF 790.58 → Cal. 779.82
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR 19.9% (2022-2025) provides growth baseline
- Trailing EBIT margin 36.5% supports high steady-state target
- Beta 1.24 and low net debt support WACC near 10.5%
Top Risk
- Heavy capex (30.5% of revenue) in Reality Labs
- Regulatory and legal risks around addiction claims
- Potential margin pressure from AI and hardware investments
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 504.97 → Cal. 579.89
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 19.9% is strong, but a 5-year forecast should mode…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 36.5% is already high, supporting a steady-state targ…
- Beta of 1.243 and the US large-cap tech CAPM context support a WACC around 11…
Top Risk
- Reality Labs and AI infrastructure spending could keep capex elevated and delay free-ca…
- Regulatory and litigation pressure may constrain monetization or raise compliance costs.
- Advertising demand remains cyclical and could slow if macro conditions weaken.
Delta
CAGR-2.0pp
MARG-1.0pp
growth moderationmargin holdcapm wacc
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 15.0% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 9.0% -2.0pp | 14.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 40.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% | 38.0% -1.0pp | 37.0% |
| WACC | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 14.0% | 11.7% | -2.3pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 37.0% | 31.7% | -5.3pp |
| WACC | 10.5% | 11.5% | +1.0pp |
Based on spot price $571.10 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin36.5%
EBITDA Margin48.0%
ROE31.3%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.2x
P/E Trailing21.4x
EV / EBITDA13.5x
P/B5.6x
Analyst Range580.00 – 1000.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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