247.04 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$196.00
$278.56
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate AMZN median target $207.50 (-16.0% vs spot $247.04, model agreement 0.71). Analyst consensus $312.91 (62 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$207.50
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-16.0%
Agreement
0.714/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.59
Dispersion
σ 13.3%
Analyst consensus
$312.91(62 analysts)
AI Summary
3 of 5 AI models are negative on AMZN. Key concern: Intense competition in cloud computing from rivals like Microsoft and Google,... AI consensus estimate 207.50 16.0% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.71). Analyst consensus: 312.91 (AI -33.7%).Bear Case (min)
$139.32
-43.6%
Base Case (median)
$207.50
-16.0%
Bull Case (max)
$243.31
-1.5%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:195.36→207.50(+6.2%)
stable-waccstable-growthstable-margin
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AMZN moved from $219.67 to $207.50 (-5.5%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 11.1% → 13.3%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $219.67 | $207.50 | -5.5% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 11.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.0% | 13.0% | +1.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 17.0% | 15.5% | -1.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 11.1% | 13.3% | +2.19 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 243.31 → Cal. 264.19
Key Drivers
- Continued strong growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by demand for clo…
- Expansion into international markets for e-commerce and delivery services, le…
- Growth in advertising revenue, utilizing Amazon's vast customer data and plat…
Top Risk
- Intense competition in cloud computing from rivals like Microsoft and Google, and in e-…
- Significant capital expenditure requirements for expanding AWS infrastructure and globa…
- Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions in e-commerce, cloud services, and …
Delta
No change
NO CHANGE
DCF 179.68 → Cal. 219.65
Key Drivers
- AWS cloud and AI infrastructure demand continues to drive high-margin revenue…
- Advertising segment growing rapidly at structurally high margins (~70%+ gross…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022–2025) expected to accelerate toward ~1…
Top Risk
- Hyperscaler capex intensity (~$131.8B in 2025, 17.7% of revenue) is extreme; electricit…
- Competitive pressure from Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Meta in AI cloud could com…
- Beta of 1.46 (above CAPM usable threshold of 1.4, applied at ceiling) reflects elevated…
Delta
No change
stable-waccstable-growthstable-margin
DCF 144.99 → Cal. 195.36
Key Drivers
- AWS growth driven by AI and cloud migration tailwinds
- Advertising revenue expansion from sponsored ads, video, and Alexa+ agentic ads
- Broadband service launch (Project Kuiper / Leo) opening new revenue streams
Top Risk
- Intense competition in cloud from Microsoft and Meta
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions
- High capital expenditure may pressure near-term free cash flow
Delta
No previous data
stable
DCF 139.32 → Cal. 191.40
Key Drivers
- AWS and advertising continue to drive mix shift toward higher-margin revenue
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) provides base; 1y analyst revenu…
- EBIT margin expansion from operating leverage and scale in North America/AWS …
Top Risk
- Elevated hyperscaler capex intensity may pressure near-term free cash flow
- Regulatory and competitive pressure in e-commerce and cloud markets
- High beta (1.46) implies sensitivity to macro and interest-rate shifts
Delta
No previous data
GPT →INVALID
Delta
No previous data
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 14.0% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 12.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 17.0% | 14.0% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| WACC | 11.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 13.0% | 17.8% | +4.7pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 15.5% | 22.4% | +6.9pp |
| WACC | 11.0% | 9.2% | -1.8pp |
Based on spot price $247.04 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.8%
EBITDA Margin21.0%
ROE22.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.6x
P/E Trailing29.3x
EV / EBITDA17.6x
P/B6.0x
Analyst Range207.00 – 370.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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