As of 2026-10-16, 5 AI models estimate AMZN median target $229.81 (-9.8% vs spot $254.76, model agreement 0.61). Analyst consensus $331.46 (58 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$229.81
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-9.8%
Agreement
0.615/5 models
Raw 0.61
Dispersion
σ 21.6%
Analyst consensus
$331.46(58 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$260.31
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on AMZN.
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
Between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AMZN moved from $229.81 to $229.81 (+0.0%); median WACC 9.5% → 9.5% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 20.5% → 21.6%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
AWS remains the primary margin engine, operating at margins well above 35%; c…
Advertising revenue (sponsored ads, display, video) continues to scale at hig…
Analyst consensus projects ~19.6% revenue growth in the next 12 months, well …
Top Risk
Beta of 1.456 reflects above-market sensitivity to macro conditions; any deterioration …
Capex intensity at 17% of revenue (~$132B) is exceptionally high; if AI infrastructure …
Competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud in enterprise AI cloud, as well as em…
Delta
All four core assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model. Today's spot price is $254.76, marginally higher th…
Valuation Assumptions
CLAUDE
DEEPSEEK
GEMINI
GPT
GROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.0%
12.0%
13.0%
8.5%
13.0%
EBIT Margin Target
16.0%
16.0%
14.0%
11.5%
15.0%
WACC
10.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
11.5%
Terminal Growth
3.0%
2.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
What Would Need to Be True?
Assumption
AI Consensus
Market Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)
13.0%
14.5%
+1.5pp
EBIT Margin Target
15.0%
17.0%
+2.0pp
WACC
9.5%
8.9%
-0.6pp
Based on spot price $254.76 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.3%
EBITDA Margin21.8%
ROE32.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.8x
P/E Trailing20.3x
EV / EBITDA17.0x
P/B5.0x
Analyst Range230.00 – 405.00
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, ent
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-10-16
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy
Key concern: Beta of 1.456 reflects above-market sensitivity to macro conditions; any dete...
AI consensus estimate 229.81 9.8% below the current price.
Model agreement is moderate (0.61).
Analyst consensus: 331.46 (AI -30.7%).
Bear Case (min)
$132.58
-48.0%
Base Case (median)
$229.81
-9.8%
Bull Case (max)
$248.06
-2.6%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)