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AI model estimates for
Amazon.com Inc. vs spot price

2026-05-22🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer
268.46 USD
52-Week Range
$196.00
$278.56

5 AI models estimate AMZN median target $236.04 (-12.1% vs spot $268.46, model agreement 1.00). Analyst consensus $312.63 (62 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$236.04
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-12.1%
Agreement
1.004/5 models ⚠
Raw 1.00
Dispersion
σ 0.00
Analyst consensus
$312.63(62 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on AMZN. Key concern: Intense competition across e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertisi... AI consensus estimate 236.04 12.1% below the current price. Model agreement is high (1.00). Analyst consensus: 312.63 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAMZNAmazon.com …268.5spot312.6analysts227246265284303322
Bear Case (min)
$203.21
-24.3%
Base Case (median)
$236.04
-12.1%
Bull Case (max)
$203.21
-24.3%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:236.04→236.04(+0.0%)
CAGR
+1.0pp(1 ↑)
no changeminor changestability

Model Breakdown

DEEPSEEK →ADJTV
Est.
236.04
Gap
-12.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 203.21 → Cal. 236.04
Key Drivers
  • AWS growth and AI adoption driving higher-margin revenue mix
  • Advertising business expanding rapidly with high incremental margins
  • Retail margin improvement from cost efficiencies and fulfillment optimization
Top Risk
  • Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions in US and EU
  • Intense competition in cloud (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) and retail (Walmart, Shopify)
  • Capital intensity of fulfillment and data center buildout may pressure near-term margins
Delta
No material new information since yesterday; assumptions remain unchanged.
No change
no change
GEMINI →ADJ
Est.
236.04
Gap
-12.1%
Conf
0.80
DCF 203.21 → Cal. 236.04
Key Drivers
  • Continued robust growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) segment, enhancing overa…
  • Expansion of the high-margin advertising business, leveraging extensive custo…
  • Ongoing e-commerce penetration and global reach, supported by the Amazon Prim…
Top Risk
  • Intense competition across e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising markets.
  • Increasing global regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions impacting busines…
  • Macroeconomic downturns affecting consumer discretionary spending and enterprise IT bud…
Delta
A minor adjustment was made to the 5-year revenue CAGR, reflecting a slightly more optimistic near-term growth outloo…
CAGR
+1.0pp
minor change
GPT →ADJTV
Est.
236.04
Gap
-12.1%
Conf
0.70
DCF 203.21 → Cal. 236.04
Key Drivers
  • Strong brand recognition driving sales.
  • Innovation in logistics and technology enhancing efficiency.
  • Expansion of Amazon Web Services contributing to revenue growth.
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in e-commerce and cloud services.
  • Potential economic downturn affecting consumer purchasing.
  • Regulatory challenges in different markets.
Delta
Assumptions remain stable with expectations for steady growth.
No previous data
stabilityconsumer
GROK →ADJTV
Est.
236.04
Gap
-12.1%
Conf
0.65
DCF 203.21 → Cal. 236.04
Key Drivers
  • AWS and advertising mix shift supports margin expansion
  • Historical revenue CAGR 11.7% provides base for continued scale
  • High beta 1.47 reflected in elevated WACC
Top Risk
  • Retail competition and thin margins persist
  • Heavy capex (17.7% of revenue) may pressure near-term FCF
  • Regulatory and antitrust exposure in core markets
Delta
Assumptions unchanged from prior day.
No change
stable
CLAUDE →INVALID
Est.
268.46
Gap
+0.0%
Conf
0.00
Delta
No previous data

Valuation Assumptions

DEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y12.0%15.0%
+1.0pp
10.0%12.0%
EBIT Margin Target14.0%15.0%12.0%14.0%
WACC9.5%11.5%9.0%10.5%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.5%

What Would Need to Be True?

AssumptionAI ConsensusMarket Price Implies
Revenue CAGR (5y)12.0%17.5%+5.5pp
EBIT Margin Target14.0%21.8%+7.8pp
WACC10.0%8.1%-1.9pp
Based on spot price $268.46 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin10.8%
EBITDA Margin21.0%
ROE22.1%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.6x
P/E Trailing31.8x
EV / EBITDA19.1x
P/B6.5x
Analyst Range– – –
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, ent
Source: Yahoo Finance

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