49.23 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
47.94 €
70.00 €
As of 2026-07-10, 5 AI models estimate KNEBV median target 55.48 € (+12.7% vs spot 49.23 €, model agreement 0.78). Analyst consensus 61.89 € (23 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
55.48 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+12.7%
Agreement
0.784/5 models ⚠
Raw 0.70
Dispersion
σ 9.6%
Analyst consensus
61.89 €(23 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are positive on KNEBV. Key driver: Global urbanization and infrastructure development driving demand for new ins... AI consensus estimate 55.48 12.7% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.78). Analyst consensus: 61.89 (AI -10.4%).Bear Case (min)
51.02 €
3.6%
Base Case (median)
55.48 €
+12.7%
Bull Case (max)
70.36 €
42.9%
Bear/Bull: pure model range · Base incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:56.67→55.48(-2.1%)
no-changestable-assumptionsearnings-catalyst-imminent
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-07-03 and 2026-07-10, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for KNEBV moved from 58.04 € to 55.48 € (-4.4%); median WACC 8.0% → 8.0% (+0.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 10.8% → 9.6%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-07-03) | Now (2026-07-10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 58.04 € | 55.48 € | -4.4% |
| Median WACC | 8.00% | 8.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 3.3% | -0.75 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 12.5% | 12.3% | -0.25 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 10.8% | 9.6% | -1.14 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 70.36 → Cal. 67.82
Key Drivers
- Pending TK Elevator (TKE) combination is the dominant near-term catalyst — if…
- High-margin service and modernization segment provides a recurring, resilient…
- Urbanization trends and an aging installed base in Europe and Asia drive stru…
Top Risk
- TKE integration risk: large-scale M&A combinations in industrials frequently face execu…
- China exposure: KONE has historically derived significant revenues from Chinese new con…
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny of the TKE combination could delay closing, impose re…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsearnings-catalyst-imminent
DCF 54.43 → Cal. 56.67
Key Drivers
- Global urbanization and infrastructure development driving demand for new ins…
- Stable and higher-margin maintenance and modernization services provide recur…
- Expansion into smart building solutions (e.g., KONE Office Flow, Access) enha…
Top Risk
- Cyclicality of the construction and real estate markets impacting new equipment orders.
- Intense competition in the global elevator and escalator industry.
- Geopolitical uncertainties and economic slowdowns affecting international projects.
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 51.02 → Cal. 54.28
Key Drivers
- Stable service and modernization backlog provides recurring revenue visibility
- TK Elevator acquisition expected to expand scale and geographic reach
- Net cash position (net debt to EBITDA -0.22) provides financial flexibility
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to new building construction in Europe and China
- Integration risk from TK Elevator deal could pressure margins near term
- Low historical revenue growth limits upside if M&A synergies fail to materialize
Delta
No previous data
no changecapm alignment
DCF 51.02 → Cal. 54.28
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR ~1% (2022-2025) with analyst 1Y growth 1.3%
- Trailing EBIT margin 11.8% and EBITDA margin 13.7% provide stable base
- Net debt/EBITDA -0.22 indicates conservative balance sheet
Top Risk
- Cyclical construction and infrastructure demand exposure
- Intense competition in global elevator/escalator markets
- FX translation risk from worldwide operations
Delta
No previous data
no change
GPT →INVALID
Delta
No previous data
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 13.0% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 12.0% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 3.3% | 2.4% | -0.9pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.3% | 11.3% | -1.0pp |
| WACC | 8.0% | 8.4% | +0.4pp |
Based on spot price 49.23 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin11.8%
EBITDA Margin13.7%
ROE35.0%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.2x
P/E Trailing26.0x
EV / EBITDA16.3x
P/B12.1x
Analyst Range45.00 – 84.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-07-10
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