52.86 EUR
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
46.22 €
64.42 €
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate KNEBV median target 63.38 € (+19.9% vs spot 52.86 €, model agreement 0.75). Analyst consensus 59.98 € (22 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
63.38 €
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
+19.9%
Agreement
0.755/5 models
Raw 0.75
Dispersion
σ 10.9%
Analyst consensus
59.98 €(22 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
62.36 €
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on KNEBV. Key driver: Recurring maintenance, modernization, and service revenue provide a stable ba... AI consensus estimate 63.38 19.9% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.75). Analyst consensus: 59.98 (AI +5.7%).Bear Case (min)
60.89 €
15.2%
Base Case (median)
63.38 €
+19.9%
Bull Case (max)
80.45 €
52.2%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:53.14→63.38(+19.3%)
CAGR+0.5pp(1 ↑)
MARG-0.5pp(1 ↓)
WACC-1.5pp(2 ↓)
no-changestable-assumptionsintegration-watch
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for KNEBV moved from 72.78 € to 63.38 € (-12.9%); median WACC 7.0% → 8.0% (+1.00 pp); median terminal growth 2.0% → 2.0% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 9.3% → 10.9%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | 72.78 € | 63.38 € | -12.9% |
| Median WACC | 7.00% | 8.00% | +1.00 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.00 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 12.5% | 12.5% | +0.00 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 9.3% | 10.9% | +1.61 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 80.45 → Cal. 74.31
Key Drivers
- Recurring maintenance, modernization, and service revenue provide a stable ba…
- TK Elevator acquisition and strong modernization momentum support a forward r…
- Service mix, scale, and operational leverage should hold the steady-state EBI…
Top Risk
- TK Elevator acquisition integration and one-off costs could pressure near-term margins …
- New equipment demand remains sensitive to European and China construction cycles.
- Competition and raw material/component inflation could limit pricing and margin expansion.
Delta
WACC-1.8pp
beta availablecapmwacc basis change
DCF 72.78 → Cal. 68.94
Key Drivers
- Maintenance and modernization recurring revenue base
- Historical revenue CAGR of 1% with forward 3-4% outlook
- Trailing EBIT margin ~11.8% and high ROE 33.7%
Top Risk
- Cyclical exposure to new construction markets
- Integration costs from TK Elevator acquisition
- Recent Q2 earnings lag versus estimates
Delta
WACC-1.5pp
wacc update
DCF 63.38 → Cal. 62.36
Key Drivers
- TK Elevator acquisition is the dominant near-term catalyst — materially expan…
- Modernization segment structural tailwind: the global installed elevator/esca…
- Maintenance and services (~50% of revenue) provides stable, recurring cash fl…
Top Risk
- TK Elevator integration complexity and costs could suppress margins for 2–3 years beyon…
- Continued structural weakness in Chinese new construction market remains a headwind to …
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny of TK Elevator acquisition in key European markets co…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsintegration-watch
DCF 63.03 → Cal. 62.12
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue growth has been modest at about 1.0% CAGR, so the forward …
- Trailing EBIT margin is 11.8%, which supports a normalized steady-state targe…
- Beta of 0.808 and the Finland large-cap industrial context support a WACC aro…
Top Risk
- Construction and renovation cycles can slow revenue growth if building activity weakens.
- Competitive pricing pressure could limit margin expansion from the current operating le…
- Large-project execution and modernization timing can create quarterly volatility.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG-0.5pp
anchored to historical ratioslimited new primary datano material change
Key Drivers
- Resilient maintenance and modernization services driving recurring revenue st…
- Strategic focus on cost-efficiency programs and pricing power helping to expa…
- Urbanization and aging elevator infrastructure in Europe and North America su…
Top Risk
- Continued weakness or prolonged downturn in the Chinese real estate market impacting ne…
- Intense pricing competition in key emerging markets limiting margin expansion potential.
- Potential supply chain disruptions or wage inflation pressures affecting execution costs.
Delta
No change
industrialsnordicstable outlook
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% +0.5pp | 4.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 13.0% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% -0.5pp | 12.0% |
| WACC | 8.6% | 6.5% -1.8pp | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% -1.5pp |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 4.0% | 3.0% | -1.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 12.5% | 11.4% | -1.1pp |
| WACC | 8.0% | 8.4% | +0.4pp |
Based on spot price 52.86 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin11.8%
EBITDA Margin13.5%
ROE33.7%
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.3x
P/E Trailing29.0x
EV / EBITDA17.6x
P/B11.9x
Analyst Range45.00 – 83.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
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