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UPMUPM-Kymmene Oyj

📅 2026-04-03🇫🇮 OMXHmaterials
26.71 EUR
52-Week Range
21.72 €
27.94 €

AI Consensus

Model estimate
21.30 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-20.3%
Agreement
0.825/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.07
Analyst consensus
26.25 €(14 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on UPM. Key concern: Exposure to volatile commodity prices (pulp, timber, energy) which can signif... AI consensus estimate 21.30 20.3% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.82). Analyst consensus: 26.25 (AI -18.9%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokUPMUPM-Kymmene…26.7spot26.3analysts20.021.522.924.425.927.4
Bear Case (min)
18.30 €
-31.5%
Base Case (median)
21.30 €
-20.3%
Bull Case (max)
23.54 €
-11.9%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:21.30→21.30(+0.0%)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Model Breakdown
GPT
Est.
24.36
Gap
-8.8%
Conf
0.70
DCF 23.54 → Cal. 24.36
Key Drivers
  • Focus on biofuels and renewable products may drive growth
  • Operational efficiencies could improve margins
  • Market conditions impacting commodity prices
Top Risk
  • Fluctuating commodity prices impacting revenues
  • Increased competition in renewable materials
  • Potential regulatory changes affecting operations
Delta
Assumptions remain stable with a conservative revenue CAGR forecast reflecting current market conditions.
No previous data
forecastEBITWACC
GEMINI
Est.
24.19
Gap
-9.4%
Conf
0.80
DCF 23.30 → Cal. 24.19
Key Drivers
  • Strategic shift towards forest-based bioindustry, including biofuels and bioc…
  • Potential for operational efficiencies and margin recovery, supported by the …
  • Diversified business segments (pulp, paper, timber, energy, biomaterials) pro…
Top Risk
  • Exposure to volatile commodity prices (pulp, timber, energy) which can significantly im…
  • Sensitivity to global economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for paper, packa…
  • Execution risks associated with strategic investments in new areas like biofuels and ot…
Delta
No significant changes in core valuation assumptions were made, reflecting a consistent view on UPM's long-term outlook.
No previous data
no change
CLAUDE
Est.
21.30
Gap
-20.3%
Conf
0.68
DCF 19.18 → Cal. 21.30
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of -6.3% (2022-2025) reflects post-2022 commodity pri…
  • Forward EPS consensus of EUR 2.11 vs trailing EPS of EUR 0.91 implies a signi…
  • Analyst 1-year revenue growth estimate of -12.2% signals continued near-term …
Top Risk
  • Structural decline in Communication Papers (graphic/newsprint) segment continues to be …
  • Elevated net debt/EBITDA of 2.77x limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivit…
  • Analyst 1-year revenue growth estimate of -12.2% signals continued near-term top-line p…
Delta
All four core valuation assumptions are unchanged from yesterday's model. No new material primary data has emerged to…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
DEEPSEEK
Est.
21.18
Gap
-20.7%
Conf
0.70
DCF 19.00 → Cal. 21.18
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) driven by commodity price n…
  • Target EBIT margin of 10.5% reflects expansion from trailing 7.8% as company …
  • Low beta (0.28) and stable materials sector profile support a WACC at the low…
Top Risk
  • Cyclical exposure to pulp, paper, and timber prices creates revenue and margin volatility.
  • Execution risk in transitioning to higher-margin bio-based product portfolio.
  • High net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (2.77x) indicates financial leverage and interest rate se…
Delta
Maintained all assumptions unchanged from yesterday's model as no new primary source data warrants a revision. The co…
No change
unchanged
GROK
Est.
20.68
Gap
-22.6%
Conf
0.70
DCF 18.30 → Cal. 20.68
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) reflects commodity price no…
  • Forward CAGR of 2.5% assumes modest volume growth and stabilization in pricin…
  • EBIT margin target of 10% anticipates recovery from trailing 7.8% due to cost…
Top Risk
  • Commodity price volatility in pulp and paper markets may continue to impact revenue and…
  • Cyclical exposure in materials sector heightens risk from global economic downturns.
  • Elevated net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.77) could limit financial flexibility for investme…
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with the previous model, with no significant changes in outlook or data inputs.
No change
stable assumptionsno change

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y2.0%1.5%1.5%2.0%2.5%
EBIT Margin Target10.0%10.5%9.0%12.0%10.0%
WACC8.7%8.8%6.5%8.5%9.2%
Terminal Growth2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin7.8%
EBITDA Margin11.5%
ROE4.8%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.8x
P/E Trailing29.3x
EV / EBITDA15.5x
P/B1.4x
Analyst Range– – –

Recent News

A Look At UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HLSE:UPM) Valuation After Recent Annual Results2026-04-02
Why UPM-Kymmene (HLSE:UPM) Is Up 6.4% After Biofuels Turnaround And Cash-Flow-Backed Dividend2026-02-05
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPMKF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...2026-02-04
Assessing UPM-Kymmene (HLSE:UPM)'s Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound2025-12-05
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