25.22 EUR
52-Week Range
21.72 €
27.94 €
5 AI models estimate UPM median target 20.30 € (-19.5% vs spot 25.22 €, model agreement 0.85). Analyst consensus 25.94 € (14 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
20.30 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-19.5%
Agreement
0.855/5 models
Raw 0.78
Dispersion
σ 0.06
Analyst consensus
25.94 €(14 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on UPM. Key concern: Volatility in raw material and energy prices impacting profitability. AI consensus estimate 20.30 19.5% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.85). Analyst consensus: 25.94 (AI -21.7%).Bear Case (min)
16.98 €
-32.7%
Base Case (median)
20.30 €
-19.5%
Bull Case (max)
21.50 €
-14.8%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:19.88→20.30(+2.1%)
CAGR+2.0pp(1 ↑)
MARG+2.0pp(1 ↑)
WACC+0.5pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Model Breakdown
DCF 21.50 → Cal. 22.83
Key Drivers
- Investment in renewables and bioindustry
- Volatility in commodity prices
- Market demand for wood-based products and biofuels
Top Risk
- Fluctuating raw material prices
- Regulatory changes in environmental policies
- Economic downturns impacting demand
Delta
MARG+2.0pp
WACC+0.5pp
valuationfinancials
DCF 19.82 → Cal. 21.65
Key Drivers
- Strategic transformation and investment in growth areas, particularly biofuel…
- Cyclicality of global commodity prices for pulp, paper, and wood products.
- Demand trends in key end-markets such as packaging, specialty papers, and con…
Top Risk
- Volatility in raw material and energy prices impacting profitability.
- Economic downturns affecting industrial and consumer demand for UPM's products.
- Intense competition across all forest-based bioindustry segments.
Delta
CAGR+2.0pp
revenue growth adjusted
DCF 17.89 → Cal. 20.30
Key Drivers
- Low beta of 0.21 supports below-sector WACC
- Pulp and energy segments provide volume stability
- Biofuels and biochemicals offer modest long-term growth
Top Risk
- Commodity pulp and paper price cyclicality
- High net debt/EBITDA of 2.67 increases sensitivity to downturns
- Negative historical revenue CAGR may persist if volumes stay flat
Delta
No previous data
date roll
DCF 17.28 → Cal. 19.88
Key Drivers
- Biofuels turnaround and strategic focus on renewable diesel and biochemicals …
- Revenue decline from 2022 peak (11.72B EUR) to 2025 (9.66B EUR) reflects comm…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 8.0% is depressed by cyclical pulp and paper pricing;…
Top Risk
- Continued weakness in graphic papers and communication papers segments due to digital s…
- Commodity price volatility in pulp, energy, and biofuels could compress margins below t…
- High net debt to EBITDA ratio (2.67x) limits financial flexibility in a downturn
Delta
No previous data
no change
DCF 16.98 → Cal. 19.67
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue decline (-6.3% CAGR 2022-2025) is commodity-cycle-driven (…
- Analyst consensus projects -5.3% revenue in near-term (1Y) but 43.7% EPS grow…
- Strategic pivot toward higher-value specialty segments (adhesive materials, s…
Top Risk
- Secular decline in graphic/communication papers segment remains a structural drag on re…
- Elevated leverage (net debt/EBITDA 2.67x) limits financial flexibility if commodity cyc…
- Biofuels segment exposed to regulatory risk (EU renewable fuel mandates, blending oblig…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-hold
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% +2.0pp | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% +2.0pp | 9.0% |
| WACC | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% +0.5pp | 8.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 4.9% | +2.9pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 10.0% | 13.2% | +3.2pp |
| WACC | 8.5% | 7.3% | -1.2pp |
Based on spot price 25.22 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin8.0%
EBITDA Margin12.1%
ROE5.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.7x
P/E Trailing24.7x
EV / EBITDA14.2x
P/B1.3x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-22
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