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AMZNAmazon.com Inc.

📅 2026-04-03🇺🇸 S&Pconsumer
209.77 USD
52-Week Range
$161.38
$258.60

AI Consensus

Model estimate
$212.35
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
+1.2%
Agreement
0.945/5 models
Dispersion
σ 0.02
Analyst consensus
$281.26(64 analysts)
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are positive on AMZN. Key driver: Strong position in e-commerce and cloud services AI consensus estimate 212.35 1.2% above the current price. Model agreement is high (0.94). Analyst consensus: 281.26 (AI -24.5%).
gptclaudegeminideepseekgrokAMZNAmazon.com …209.8spot281.3analysts201219237254272290
Bear Case (min)
$182.82
-12.8%
Base Case (median)
$212.35
+1.2%
Bull Case (max)
$198.25
-5.5%

Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time

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What Changed Today

Consensus Est.:212.35→212.35(+0.0%)
CAGR
-0.5pp(2 ↓)
MARG
+0.5pp(1 ↑, 1 ↓)
WACC
+0.2pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
Model Breakdown
CLAUDE
Est.
223.15
Gap
+6.4%
Conf
0.73
DCF 198.25 → Cal. 223.15
Key Drivers
  • AWS cloud segment continues to grow at 15-20%+ driven by AI/ML workloads and …
  • Advertising segment (~$60B+ annual run-rate) is structurally high-margin and …
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) anchors near-term growth; analys…
Top Risk
  • Elevated capex intensity (18.4% of revenue, ~$132B annually) for AI infrastructure and …
  • Beta of 1.42 reflects above-market volatility; macro slowdown or consumer spending weak…
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across e-commerce, cloud, and advertising segments in…
Delta
Core valuation assumptions are unchanged from the prior day model run. New headlines around a 3.5% surcharge on third…
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsday-over-day-consistent
DEEPSEEK⚖
Est.
212.35
Gap
+1.2%
Conf
0.78
DCF 182.82 → Cal. 212.35
Key Drivers
  • Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) provides strong baseline for fut…
  • AWS segment and advertising services are high-margin, high-growth drivers sup…
  • Analyst consensus projects near-term revenue growth of 13.6%, indicating cont…
Top Risk
  • High capital intensity (capex/revenue 18.4%) may pressure free cash flow and limit marg…
  • Intense competition in e-commerce and cloud computing could pressure pricing and market…
  • Regulatory scrutiny globally, particularly in digital markets and data privacy.
Delta
Maintaining similar assumptions with slight adjustments: revenue growth increased based on continued analyst optimism…
CAGR
-0.5pp
MARG
+0.5pp
WACC
+0.2pp
revenue-upwacc-upmargin-stable
GEMINI⚖
Est.
212.35
Gap
+1.2%
Conf
0.70
DCF 182.82 → Cal. 212.35
Key Drivers
  • Continued robust growth of Amazon Web Services (AWS) as a high-margin segment.
  • Expansion of high-margin advertising revenue streams.
  • Global e-commerce penetration and growth in Prime subscriptions.
Top Risk
  • Intensifying competition across cloud computing, e-commerce, and digital advertising.
  • Increased regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions in key markets.
  • Macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer spending and enterprise IT budgets.
Delta
No significant changes in core valuation assumptions compared to yesterday's model.
No change
no change
GPT⚖
Est.
212.35
Gap
+1.2%
Conf
0.80
DCF 182.82 → Cal. 212.35
Key Drivers
  • Strong position in e-commerce and cloud services
  • Continued investment in technology and infrastructure
  • Growth from subscription services like Amazon Prime
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in e-commerce and AWS
  • Regulatory scrutiny across various markets
  • Impact of economic downturn on consumer spending
Delta
No significant changes to assumptions since yesterday.
No previous data
stableno change
GROK⚖🏗
Est.
212.35
Gap
+1.2%
Conf
0.75
DCF 182.82 → Cal. 212.35
Key Drivers
  • Sustained growth in e-commerce with increasing global penetration and Prime m…
  • AWS expected to drive high-margin growth with expanding cloud and AI services…
  • Advertising segment poised for continued expansion as a key revenue contributor.
Top Risk
  • Intense competition in e-commerce and cloud services may impact profitability.
  • High capital expenditures could delay returns if growth initiatives underperform.
  • Regulatory scrutiny in multiple regions could lead to increased operational costs.
Delta
Assumptions remain consistent with minor updates to reflect recent developments in credit card moves and surcharges o…
CAGR
-0.5pp
MARG
-0.5pp
minor updatestable assumptions

Valuation Assumptions

CLAUDEDEEPSEEKGEMINIGPTGROK
Revenue CAGR 5Y13.0%12.5%
-0.5pp
12.5%9.0%12.0%
-0.5pp
EBIT Margin Target17.0%15.5%
+0.5pp
14.0%15.0%14.0%
-0.5pp
WACC10.5%10.1%
+0.2pp
11.5%8.8%10.5%
Terminal Growth3.0%2.5%2.0%2.0%2.0%

Fundamentals

EBIT Margin11.2%
EBITDA Margin20.3%
ROE18.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.4x
P/E Trailing29.0x
EV / EBITDA15.8x
P/B5.5x
Analyst Range– – –

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