256.26 USD
previous close — not live
52-Week Range
$196.00
$287.20
As of 2026-08-28, 5 AI models estimate AMZN median target $157.91 (-38.4% vs spot $256.26, model agreement 0.65). Analyst consensus $327.00 (60 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
$157.91
Pure model estimate — no analyst blending
Gap
-38.4%
Agreement
0.655/5 models
Raw 0.65
Dispersion
σ 18.1%
Analyst consensus
$327.00(60 analysts)
Calibrated blend (research)
$208.64
AI Summary
5 of 5 AI models are negative on AMZN. Key concern: Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny: Persistent investigations and legal challe... AI consensus estimate 157.91 38.4% below the current price. Model agreement is moderate (0.65). Analyst consensus: 327.00 (AI -51.7%).Bear Case (min)
$130.80
-49.0%
Base Case (median)
$157.91
-38.4%
Bull Case (max)
$210.08
-18.0%
Bear/Base/Bull: pure model range (12-month values)
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:157.91→157.91(+0.0%)
CAGR+0.5pp(2 ↑)
MARG+0.5pp(2 ↑)
no-changeassumptions-stablethesis-unchanged
What Changed (7 days)
Between 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-28, the 5-model AI consensus estimate for AMZN moved from $166.19 to $157.91 (-5.0%); median WACC 11.0% → 11.3% (+0.25 pp); median terminal growth 2.5% → 2.5% (+0.00 pp); model dispersion σ 24.0% → 18.1%. Experimental model estimates — not investment advice.
| Metric | 7d ago (2026-08-21) | Now (2026-08-28) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI consensus estimate | $166.19 | $157.91 | -5.0% |
| Median WACC | 11.00% | 11.25% | +0.25 pp |
| Median terminal growth | 2.50% | 2.50% | +0.00 pp |
| Median revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.5% | 12.0% | -0.50 pp |
| Median EBIT margin target | 13.5% | 13.0% | -0.50 pp |
| Model dispersion σ | 24.0% | 18.1% | -5.93 pp |
Model Breakdown
DCF 210.08 → Cal. 245.15
Key Drivers
- AWS cloud and AI infrastructure demand remains the primary growth engine; ent…
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% (2022-2025) provides a strong baseline; anal…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 10.3% is significantly below EBITDA margin of 21.8%, …
Top Risk
- Heavy capex cycle (17% of revenue, $131.8B in FY2025) compresses near-term free cash fl…
- Beta of 1.45 reflects meaningful market risk sensitivity — macro deterioration or risk-…
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across e-commerce, cloud, and advertising segments in…
Delta
No change
no-changeassumptions-stablethesis-unchanged
GEMINI →TV
DCF 188.13 → Cal. 229.79
Key Drivers
- AWS and AI expansion: Continued leadership in cloud infrastructure and rapid …
- Fulfillment network regionalization: Ongoing optimization of logistics and de…
- High-margin advertising services: Rapid growth of digital advertising across …
Top Risk
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny: Persistent investigations and legal challenges from …
- Intense cloud competition: Market share pressure from rival hyperscalers in enterprise …
- Macroeconomic headwinds: Sensitivity of consumer discretionary spending to inflation, i…
Delta
No change
no changereconfirmed
DCF 157.91 → Cal. 208.64
Key Drivers
- High-margin AWS, advertising, and third-party seller services continue to shi…
- Near-term top-line growth remains elevated, supporting a double-digit normali…
- Logistics scale, Prime ecosystem, and advertising leverage should support EBI…
Top Risk
- Elevated capex of roughly 17% of revenue could pressure cash conversion and returns if …
- Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny across multiple geographies remains a material overhang.
- AWS margins could be pressured if heavy AI infrastructure spending does not translate i…
Delta
No change
no changeassumptions maintained
GPT →TV
DCF 138.97 → Cal. 195.38
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR is strong at 11.7%, but a 5-year forecast should mode…
- Trailing EBIT margin is 10.3%, with room for gradual expansion from higher-ma…
- Capex intensity is elevated at 17.0% of revenue, which supports growth but li…
Top Risk
- Heavy investment in logistics, AI infrastructure, and fulfillment could delay margin ex…
- Retail competition and pricing pressure may limit sustained EBIT margin improvement.
- AWS growth can be cyclical and sensitive to enterprise spending patterns.
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
fresh viewgrowth upliftwacc anchor
DCF 130.80 → Cal. 189.66
Key Drivers
- AWS and advertising mix shift supports sustained double-digit revenue growth
- Historical revenue CAGR of 11.7% provides conservative base for forward outlook
- EBITDA margin of 21.8% indicates potential for steady-state EBIT margin expan…
Top Risk
- High beta of 1.45 increases cost of capital sensitivity
- Capex-to-revenue at 17% may pressure near-term free cash flow
- Competition in cloud and retail segments could limit margin expansion
Delta
CAGR+0.5pp
MARG+0.5pp
stablegrowth outlook
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 14.0% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 9.0% +0.5pp | 11.0% +0.5pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 17.0% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 12.0% +0.5pp | 13.0% +0.5pp |
| WACC | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 12.0% | 21.0% | +9.0pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 13.0% | 27.7% | +14.7pp |
| WACC | 11.3% | 8.0% | -3.2pp |
Based on spot price $256.26 and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin10.3%
EBITDA Margin21.8%
ROE32.9%
Net Debt / EBITDA0.8x
P/E Trailing20.4x
EV / EBITDA17.1x
P/B5.0x
Analyst Range230.00 – 405.00
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-08-28
All content is generated by AI models and may contain errors. This is an experimental tool — not investment advice, research, or recommendation. About · Methodology · Terms of Use · Privacy Policy