41.60 EUR
52-Week Range
34.48 €
55.00 €
5 AI models estimate ELISA median target 41.24 € (-0.9% vs spot 41.60 €, model agreement 0.95). Analyst consensus 42.24 € (18 analysts). Experimental comparison — not investment advice.
AI Consensus
Model estimate
41.24 €
Incl. 30% analyst anchoring
Gap
-0.9%
Agreement
0.955/5 models
Raw 0.93
Dispersion
σ 0.02
Analyst consensus
42.24 €(18 analysts)
AI Summary
4 of 5 AI models are negative on ELISA. Key concern: Intense competition within the telecommunications sector could lead to pricin... AI consensus estimate 41.24 0.9% below the current price. Model agreement is high (0.95). Analyst consensus: 42.24 (AI -2.4%).Bear Case (min)
39.45 €
-5.2%
Base Case (median)
41.24 €
-0.9%
Bull Case (max)
42.33 €
1.7%
Estimate History AI model estimates and spot price over time
What Changed Today
Consensus Est.:40.80→41.24(+1.1%)
CAGR+0.3pp(1 ↑)
MARG+0.2pp(1 ↑)
no-changestable-assumptionsspot-marginally-lower
Model Breakdown
DCF 42.33 → Cal. 42.30
Key Drivers
- Stable subscription revenue
- Investment in 5G and fiber infrastructure
- Growth in digital services and ICT solutions
Top Risk
- Regulatory pressures on pricing
- High capital expenditures impacting cash flow
- Competition in the telecommunications market
Delta
No previous data
stabilitytelecom
DCF 41.15 → Cal. 41.48
Key Drivers
- Historical revenue CAGR of 2.0% (2022-2025: EUR 2129M→2257M) anchors the 5-ye…
- Elisa IndustrIQ (B2B software/ICT: sedApta, camLine, CalcuQuote, Polystar, Te…
- Trailing EBIT margin of 20.6% is already at the high end of the telecom secto…
Top Risk
- Near-term revenue contraction: analyst 1Y revenue growth estimate of -1.3% signals pres…
- Elevated net debt/EBITDA of 1.99x limits financial flexibility; any rise in refinancing…
- Execution risk in Elisa IndustrIQ international expansion — software/ICT acquisitions (…
Delta
No change
no-changestable-assumptionsspot-marginally-lower
DCF 40.81 → Cal. 41.24
Key Drivers
- Stable demand for core telecommunications services in Finland and other Europ…
- Strategic diversification into ICT, software (Elisa IndustrIQ), and AI-powere…
- Strong operational efficiency, as evidenced by the trailing EBIT margin of 20…
Top Risk
- Intense competition within the telecommunications sector could lead to pricing pressure…
- Regulatory changes or increased governmental scrutiny could affect Elisa's operational …
- High capital expenditure requirements for network upgrades and expansion may constrain …
Delta
CAGR+0.3pp
MARG+0.2pp
assumption changerevenue outlookmargin outlook
DCF 40.18 → Cal. 40.80
Key Drivers
- Stable subscription-driven revenue base in Finland
- Historical revenue CAGR of 2% provides anchor for modest future growth
- EBIT margins near 20% supported by scale and cost discipline
Top Risk
- Regulatory pressure on mobile and broadband pricing
- Intense competition in domestic Finnish market
- High ongoing capex intensity for 5G/fiber rollout
Delta
No previous data
stable
DCF 39.45 → Cal. 40.29
Key Drivers
- Stable telecom subscription revenue in Finland provides base growth
- ICT and software (Elisa IndustrIQ) expansion offers higher-margin growth pote…
- 5G and fiber network investments support long-term connectivity demand
Top Risk
- Intense competition in Finnish telecom market could pressure pricing
- High capex requirements for network upgrades may limit free cash flow
- Regulatory changes or spectrum license costs could impact profitability
Delta
No change
no change
Valuation Assumptions
| CLAUDE | DEEPSEEK | GEMINI | GPT | GROK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR 5Y | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% +0.3pp | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBIT Margin Target | 21.0% | 20.6% | 21.0% +0.2pp | 20.6% | 21.0% |
| WACC | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
What Would Need to Be True?
| Assumption | AI Consensus | Market Price Implies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR (5y) | 2.0% | 2.1% | +0.1pp |
| EBIT Margin Target | 21.0% | 21.2% | +0.2pp |
| WACC | 6.9% | 6.9% | -0.0pp |
Based on spot price 41.60 € and raw DCF model (before caps and calibration).
Fundamentals
EBIT Margin20.6%
EBITDA Margin31.8%
ROE27.4%
Net Debt / EBITDA2.0x
P/E Trailing19.5x
EV / EBITDA11.3x
P/B5.0x
Analyst Range– – –
Source: Yahoo Finance
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AI Investor Barometer · 2026-05-22
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